Tag: cowboys buccaneers

How Dak Prescott can overcome the worst stretch of his career for the playoffs

The Cowboys will go as far in the playoffs as Dak Prescott can take them. Doug Farrar goes to the tape to figure out how Dak can turn it around.

Well, that didn’t work.

Last week, I wrote a detailed tape piece about the multiple reasons behind Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott’s unusual interception stretch in the month of December. Prescott threw eight interceptions to 12 touchdowns in five games last month, though he seemed to believe he had that issue on the run in time for the regular-season finale against the Washington Commanders on January 8.

Why is Dak Prescott throwing so many interceptions?

“I don’t worry about that,” Prescott said after the Cowboys’ 23-17 Week 17 win over the Tennessee Titans, in which he threw two interceptions — both to safety Kevin Byard. Now, the questions were about this affecting his team in the playoffs.

“I don’t sit there and think of that, ‘Oh, this is going to continue to happen.’ As much as anything I have got to fix the ones on my end and I’ve just got to make sure the receivers and everybody that may take part in them are focused and understand that we don’t have a lot of opportunities as we move forward these last games and all these playoff games. Every drive matters, and we have to play every play, every drive, like it is to win the game and that’s the reality of it when you get to the postseason. So, it is just heightening our focus, and understanding, for me, the risk versus the reward, rather it is a tight window or not. Everybody being on the same page understanding the magnitude of each play.”

Well, nobody is on the same page at this point. In Dallas’ 26-6 Sunday loss to Washington, Prescott completed just 14 of 37 passes for 128 yards, one touchdown, one interception, and a passer rating of 45.8.

This marked Prescott’s seventh straight game with an interception; the most for any Cowboys quarterback since 2004. when Vinny Testaverde (!!!) threw picks in nine straight games for Dallas… at age 41. Prescott tied with Houston’s Davis Mills for the NFL’s most interceptions with 15, and the most pick-sixes with three — and Prescott only played in 12 games in the regular season. All three of Prescott’s pick-sixes have come since Week 15, including one against the Commanders that could have easily happened twice.

Since Week 12, when this interception festival really started? Well, it’s not just the interceptions. Among quarterbacks with at least 100 passing attempts over that span of time, Prescott ranks 17th in passer rating (88.0), and 12th in EPA (-0.99),

In that Commanders loss, the Cowboys went three-and-out on 12 of their 17 drives. This is obviously not a recipe for playoff success.

Prescott, who has been asked about these issues all along, was more frank about them following the regular-season finale.

“For me, shi**y, not to use the language but simple as that. Defense I thought gave us a chance, did enough. I mean, obviously put them in some bad positions, us and special teams did. But to hold them to a field goal, get a touchdown. I gave a touchdown on an interception, so defense did enough obviously. For offense, just completely not who we are. I don’t think I’ve seen us like that in damn sure the last two years. Something that as much as you want to burn the tape and move forward, there’s a lot we can learn from and get better and use this tape.”

Now, the Cowboys have to travel to Tampa to face a Buccaneers team that beat them 19-3 in Week 1. In that game, Prescott completed 14 of 29 passes for 134 yards, no touchdowns, one interception, and a passer rating of 47.2. He suffered a thumb injury in the fourth quarter that cost him the next five games, and outside of fits and starts through the season, Prescott has struggled to string together the kinds of performances we’ve expected from him throughout his career.

In my prior piece on Prescott, I did my best to detail everything that’s wrong with Dallas’ offense, and its quarterback. Now, with Prescott set to take the field against his Week 1 nemesis, it’s time to look at how any of this can be corrected.

(All advanced metrics courtesy of Football Outsiders, Pro Football Focus, and Sports Info Solutions unless otherwise indicated). 

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Buccaneers DL Vita Vea shows how you can dominate a game with no tackles

Buccaneers defensive tackle Vita Vea wasn’t credited with a single tackle against the Cowboys, but he was still the most dominant defensive player on the field.

Tackling statistics are funny things. There are linebackers who rack up hige totals year after year, and it hides the fact that they can be innocent bystanders in the right place at the right time… well, a lot of the time. Cornerbacks and safeties with large tackle totals may have them because their coverage is sub-par. And interior defensive linemen may be the most mis-represented players by way of these numbers, because tackle totals don’t tell you anything (or at least very little) about the player’s effect on the game.

Exhibit A in the 2021 NFL season came in the opener between the Buccaneers and Cowboys on Thursday night. Tampa Bay defensive tackle Vita Vea was as utterly dominant as any IDL you’ll see all season, but he didn’t register a single official tackle. Last season, Vea missed Week 6 through the divisional round of the playoffs, and he registered just seven solo tackles all season, but the Bucs’ defense was an entirely different animal when he was on the field. Per Sports Info Solutions, Tampa Bay allowed an Offensive EPA of -0.05 when Vea was off the field, and -0.18 when he was in there. As defensive advanced metrics are generally better when they’re negative, that tells you how important Vea is.

Vea was incredibly important with his very presence against the Cowboys, who ran the ball just 18 times for 60 yards. Dak Prescott set a Week 1 NFL record for completions with 42, and he played marvelously for the most part, but the Cowboys also knew that last season, the Bucs allowed 4.0 yards per carry when Vea was off the field, and 2.8 yards per carry when he was active.

So, Vea was going to have to be a pass disruptor, and the stats show that he’s rather good at that, as well. The Bucs created a blown block pressure rate of 13.8% last season without Vea, and 19.2% with him. Basically, with Vita Vea on the line, Tampa Bay was creating disruption on one of every five passing plays.

Not bad at all.

“He plays a very pivotal role in our defense,” general manager Jason Licht said in April, when the team picked up Vea’s fifth-year option. “When he’s in there, a lot of things happen for not just him but everybody else around him. The day that we found out that he was going to come back and play…it was a very big day for all of us. It was a very exciting day. Coaches, scouts, players, owners, everybody – we were all very excited.”

Pro Football Focus credited Vea with one quarterback hit and six total pressures against the Cowboys, which gives you a slightly more accurate indication of his effect on the game in Tampa Bay’s 31-29 win. Vea was all over the place on his 54 defensive snaps, and he wasn’t too bad on his one offensive snap, either.

How can a player with no tackles and one snap as a fullback take over a game? Let’s go to the tape and see exactly how it happened.

Matchup notes for Week 1 of the NFL season

Week 1 of the 2021 NFL season is here, and here are Doug Farrar’s and Mark Schofield’s matchup notes based on tape and advanced metrics.

Every week, when Touchdown Wire’s Doug Farrar and Mark Schofield prepare to do their matchup podcast, they’re taking notes for the show rundown based on tape observations and advanced metrics from Sports Info Solutions, Pro Football Focus, and Football Outsiders. We thought it would be interesting and enlightening for our readers to check out the notes, which have special value if you listen to or watch the podcast at the same time!

The Touchdown Wire Week 1 NFL preview podcast