For the Indianapolis Colts, if there is any phrase to live by, it’s three words: run the ball. The Houston Texans know that all too well. Thursday’s matchup between the two 6-4 teams will be their fifth since the start of the 2018 season.
In their last two bouts, the Colts have averaged 131 yards rushing on the Texans, with the bulk of them coming in an Indianapolis playoff win in Houston.
Indianapolis ranks fourth in rushing yards per game (141.1) and seventh in rushing offense in terms of Football Outsiders‘ DVOA metric. Their production is sustainable, as they pile on the yards with one of the NFL’s most feared offensive lines.
“It starts up front with them,” said Texans coach Bill O’Brien on Monday. One of the best offensive lines in the league. Do a great job. They have good scheme, good backs.”
The Colts’ big, physical offensive line, led by All-Pro guard Quenton Nelson, is fourth in the NFL in second-level yards per rush (1.41), 14th in power-success rate (66%) and 11th in adjusted line yards per attempt (4.42), per Football Outsiders.
In Week 11, the Colts tallied 264 ground yards and three rush touchdowns on the vaunted Jacksonville Jaguars front-seven.
“They’re running the ball very well, and to run it against Jacksonville, that’s a tough defense to run it against and they did a good job,” continued O’Brien. “So, it’ll be a big challenge for us.”
However, there is a potential hindrance to the Colts’ ground-game success: they will be without their star tailback Marlon Mack for Thursday’s matchup. Mack, who was on-pace for a Pro-Bowl season, suffered a hand fracture against the Jaguars.
Before sustaining the injury, Mack had recorded 862 yards and four touchdowns on 192 attempts (4.5 yards per attempt) in 2019.
Against the Texans, the Colts will have to use Jonathan Williams, Jordan Wilkins and Nyheim Hines. The trio has combined for 359 yards and a touchdown on 67 rush attempts (5.3 yards per attempt) on the season. Whether or not Houston will shut them down depends on if they can penetrate the offensive line.