Tag: college football 2021

College Football Daily Cavalcade: What I think, what I know, and what I believe after the penultimate round of College Football Playoff Rankings.

College Football Playoff Rankings: Daily Cavalcade on the Top 25

– Contact/Follow @ColFootballNews & @PeteFiutak

Sorry if this take sucks, it’s not my fault …

Before finishing this piece – and not knowing how it would turn out – I left for LSU.

Never, EVER, let a chance to be pretentious go unused.

I think … I refuse to refer to these as the penultimate College Football rankings until the committee goes all in and calls last week’s version the antepenultimate rankings.

I know … I took four years of Latin. I averaged a rock-solid C+.

I believe … penultimate is Latin for “these don’t really matter until we know who wins the Power Five conference championships.”

I think … Notre Dame is more alive in this College Football Playoff thing than many are letting on.

I know … Brian Kelly just had to bolt for LSU a few days before knowing whether or not the team he was coaching was actually out of the College Football Playoff.

I believe … this would be an all-timer if Notre Dame had a shot to get in, but the committee left it out because its former head coach chose to go live his best life …

What a great day to be a Tiger pic.twitter.com/6h8wFTWg6g

— LSU Football (@LSUfootball) December 1, 2021

I think … Notre Dame might be in if gets two losses this weekend between Alabama, Michigan, Oklahoma State, and Cincinnati.

I know … College Football Playoff committee chairman Gary Barta pointed out that all factors are considered – like if a star quarterback gets hurt, or if a team doesn’t have its head coach.

I believe … there aren’t enough candles at the Grotto to save Brian Kelly with the fan base if his early departure costs the Irish a College Football Playoff spot.

I think … Brian Kelly left for LSU to try to win a national championship.

I know … it was for gobs and gobs of money, too.

I believe … YOU DON’T LEAVE FOR ANOTHER JOB when the team you just led through the season has a shot at being two wins away from winning a national championship.

I think … defensive coordinator Marcus Freeman could step in and do the job if needed.

I know … no one would sell Notre Dame better over that lobbying period after the conference championships and before the final rankings are announced on Sunday morning.

I believe … Notre Dame would all of a sudden become America’s team to root for if it’s in without its head coach.

I think … Oklahoma State is fine at 5.

I know … if it beats No. 9 Baylor, that would make it two top ten wins – Oklahoma was 10 last week – to close out the season.

I believe … 12-1 Big 12 Champion Oklahoma State is in over Cincinnati if Alabama beats Georgia.

I think … this is easy peasy if Georgia beats Alabama in the SEC Championship.

I know … Georgia would get the 1, Michigan would be the 2 if that goes to plan.

I believe … Alabama is out. Maybe.

[lawrence-related id=540095]

I think … the committee and the College Football Playoff types would love nothing more than for Oklahoma State to play in AT&T Stadium in Arlington.

I know … the committee doesn’t think about location when it does its rankings … really.

I believe … Oklahoma State jumps Cincinnati to the 3 if wins the Big 12 Championship, and it’s a no-brainer if it beats Baylor in a blowout.

I think … we’re WAY overdue for something wacky to happen.

I know … we have yet to have a monster upset in one of the significant conference championships in the College Football Playoff era.

I believe … the College Football Playoff won’t somehow be Georgia, Alabama, Notre Dame, and Ohio State when I see it.

Rankings AP | Coaches | CFN 1-130 Rankings
Bowl Projections | Bowl Eligible Teams

I think … Ohio State at the 7 is a big deal.

I know … Iowa is in the Rose Bowl if it beats Michigan.

I believe … unless Alabama beats Georgia, Michigan still has a decent shot of getting in if loses to Iowa tastefully.

I think … it’ll be fascinating how this all plays out, because …

I know … Oklahoma State is up first on Saturday. Everyone else will know what they need to do after the early Big 12 Championship.

I believe … Oklahoma State is going to secure a spot by about 3:30 ET on Saturday, and then the pressure is on.

I think … Cincinnati will know it needs to be impressive against Houston.

I know … Houston is good enough to win the American Athletic Conference Championship.

I believe … Cincinnati will win, but beating the No. 21 team won’t be enough to overcome Oklahoma State beating the No. 9 team.

I think … I’m totally torn on Georgia-Alabama.

I know … Auburn had the chance to kill the zombie, and it didn’t do it.

I believe … Alabama is deadly when it can do the Nobody Believes In Us thing.

I think … Iowa can’t come close to beating Michigan unless Iowa forces at least three turnovers.

I know … Michigan will turn the ball over three times.

I believe … Iowa doesn’t have enough of an offense to take advantage of the three turnovers.

I think … about 12 people are going to watch the ACC Championship because …

I know … it’s on at the same time as the Big Ten Championship.

I believe … Pitt vs Wake Forest might be the most entertaining game of the weekend.

I think … on Sunday it’s going to be 1. Georgia, 2. Michigan, 3. Oklahoma State, 4. Cincinnati.

I know … it’s not going to be quite that easy.

I believe … Alabama will somehow be a part of this, just because.

I think … I know it’s all going to be okay.

I know … I believe it’s all going to be okay.

I believe … I think it’s all going to be okay.

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Rankings AP | Coaches | CFN 1-130 Rankings
Bowl Projections | Bowl Bubble

College Football Daily Cavalcade: What I think, what I know, and what I believe after the latest round of College Football Playoff Rankings.

College Football Playoff Rankings: Daily Cavalcade on the Top 25

– Contact/Follow @ColFootballNews & @PeteFiutak

Sorry if this take sucks, it’s not my fault …

It had to go on the road to play Utah and Ohio State last week. It’s not like it had to play SMU – aka the second-coming of 1995 Nebraska.

There you go, everyone. Cincinnati is in the top four …

I think … SMU is just whatever.

I know … Cincinnati is getting a TON of love for that win over a meh team.

I believe … too many people care about records and not the teams themselves.

I think … Cincinnati will end up in the College Football Playoff.

I know … it’s not going to be because of anything funky, if it gets in.

I believe … the College Football Playoff committee won’t put in a two-loss Alabama over Cincinnati. At least …

I think … the College Football Playoff committee won’t put in a two-loss Alabama over Cincinnati.

I know … the committee LOVES itself some Alabama.

I believe … this will be an interesting debate if it comes down to two-loss Alabama vs unbeaten Cincinnati for the last spot.

[lawrence-related id=539423]

I think … Cincinnati loses to either East Carolina or Houston.

I know … those are the two most dangerous games Cincinnati will play other than the win over Notre Dame.

I believe … if Cincinnati wallops ECU and Houston, it’s in without much of a debate. However …

I think … schedule is going to factor into the final College Football Playoff rankings.

I know … the committee is ALL about the Power Five conference championships.

I believe … this isn’t as easy as you might think.

I think … too many analysts are treating the latest round of rankings like they are set in stone.

I know … EVERYTHING the committee does up until the final rankings don’t matter.

I believe … they’re simply a snapshot of the moment. The final rankings take into account the most important games of the year – the Power Five conference championships. Which is why …

I think … a 12-1 Big 12 Champion gets in. (More on this in a moment.)

I know … a 12-1 Big 12 Champion Oklahoma State will get in.

I believe … a 12-1 Big 12 Champion Oklahoma will get in … maybe.

I think … Houston could become a factor.

I know … the College Football Playoff committee – when it comes to the final rankings – takes the entire season into account, and Texas Tech’s win over Houston to start the season could become more prominent, because …

I believe … it’s a problem for Cincinnati if it struggles with the Cougars in the American Athletic Conference Championship, because …

I think … Oklahoma State just pitched a perfect game against the Red Raiders.

I know … it’s not the same Texas Tech team in a whole lot of ways than the one that showed up to start the season.

I believe … the committee is more torn overall on Cincinnati than you think.

Rankings AP | Coaches | CFN 1-130 Rankings
Bowl Projections | Bowl Bubble

I think … Notre Dame is in a weird spot – and no, not South Bend.

I know … it can’t get past the hard ceiling of unbeaten Cincinnati.

I believe … Notre Dame needs Cincinnati to lose one of these last two games, and then it’s right there in the mix for the top four.

I think … the College Football Playoff committee isn’t taking an 11-1 Notre Dame over a 12-1 Big 12 Champion.

I know … Notre Dame has a real shot to get in if Georgia blows out Alabama.

I believe … Notre Dame should be ranked ahead of Michigan and will be after this weekend, but it needs to draw an inside straight to get in. (BTW, I think I don’t know that I believe what that poker term actually means.)

I think … y’all are missing one key self-fulfilling aspect of the College Football Playoff rankings.

I know … Oklahoma State is 7, Baylor is 8, and Oklahoma is 10. SO …

I believe … if there’s a 12-1 Big 12 champion Oklahoma or Oklahoma State, it’ll technically have two wins currently left unaccounted for against current top ten teams. SO, technically, no one has a tougher final two game schedule right now than a 12-1 Big 12 Champion.

I think … the Rose Bowl race becomes interesting if Ohio State wins out.

I know … if Michigan keeps this reasonably close against the Buckeyes, it’ll get the nod to Pasadena unless …

I believe … Michigan State will go to the Rose Bowl if it annihilates Penn State, because the committee would put Spartans up over the Wolverines in the final rankings.

I think … San Diego State isn’t all that great.

I know … San Diego State beat Utah.

I believe … 10-1 San Diego State should – technically – be above the Utes.

I think … it’s going Alabama isn’t in this as much as everyone thinks it is – if it loses to Georgia.

I know … Georgia, Alabama, Ohio State, and Michigan are the only four teams that truly control their own destiny.

I believe … it’s going to be Georgia, Ohio State, Oklahoma State, Cincinnati.

I think … I know it’s all going to be okay.

I know … I believe it’s all going to be okay.

I believe … I think it’s all going to be okay.

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Rankings AP | Coaches | CFN 1-130 Rankings
Bowl Projections | Bowl Bubble

College Football Daily Cavalcade: What I think, what I know, and what I believe after the latest round of College Football Playoff Rankings.

College Football Playoff Rankings: Daily Cavalcade on the Top 25

– Contact/Follow @ColFootballNews & @PeteFiutak

Sorry if this take sucks, it’s not my fault …

Like the College Football Playoff, this has yet to expand to include everyone.

I’ve been through the experience. The ranking process in Grapevine is whatever, but the spread of fine meats and cheeses is top drawer …

I think … Michigan State beat Michigan a few weeks ago. Wait a minute …

I know … Michigan State beat Michigan a few weeks ago.

I believe … it can’t still be the one major head-to-head inconsistency in the top 25 over the last two weeks, because if you do that …

I think … the Oregon loss to Stanford is among the worst by any team in the top 25.

I know … Ohio State has crushed it since the loss to the Ducks.

I believe … Oregon should be ranked ahead of Ohio State, but considering the Michigan-Michigan State thing, a mediocre performance against Washington State would’ve dropped Oregon behind Ohio State.

I think … if the one loss by Michigan State was so egregious that it pushed it behind Michigan, and …

I know … the committee blew off losses to Notre Dame, Minnesota, and Wisconsin in last week’s rankings, then …

I believe … losing at Ohio State – even 59-31 – shouldn’t have been enough to knock Purdue out of the top 25 with wins over now-17 Iowa and now-7 Michigan State.

[lawrence-related id=539124]

I think … it doesn’t matter because …

I know … Oregon and Michigan State control their respective destinies.

I believe … Georgia, Alabama, Oregon, Ohio State, and Michigan State are the only five teams that can plan on being in – OSU and Michigan State play this weekend – by winning out.

I think … Cincinnati will be in the top four at some point.

I know … the committee cares about 12-1 or unbeaten Power Five conference champions over anything else.

I believe … the committee will do a 2014 TCU and yoink Cincinnati out of the top four if there are four viable Power Five teams.

I think … someone in that room in Grapevine argued the merits of ranking Notre Dame higher than 8.

I know … Notre Dame’s only loss was to Cincinnati.

I believe … if you really believe Cincinnati is the fifth-best team in the country based on just one win that overcomes a slew of mega-meh performances against awful teams, then the team that lost that game should be ranked one spot at the 6 behind UC.

I think … Oklahoma State is the underground indie band team the mainstream is just starting to get into.

I know … it’s going to beat Oklahoma in the regular season finale.

I believe … Oklahoma State will probably play Baylor in the Big 12 Championship, not Oklahoma.

I think … Oklahoma State will be 12-1 with its lone loss coming in a tasteful fight at Iowa State.

I know … the committee loves its 12-1 Power Five conference champions.

I believe … Oklahoma State – if it comes down to it – will get in over 13-0 Cincinnati, but …

I think … Oklahoma isn’t out of this yet.

I know … it has lost regular season games before and gone on to win Big 12 Championships and make College Football Playoff appearances.

I believe … Oklahoma finds its way in if it wins out over Iowa State and Oklahoma State twice to finish as the 12-1 Big 12 Champion.

Rankings CFP | AP | Coaches | CFN 1-130
Bowl Projections | Heisman Race
College Football Playoff Chase, Who’s Alive?
Coach Hot Seat Top 10 | Bowl Bubble: Who’s In, Out

I think … Oregon loses at Utah this weekend.

I know … Ohio State is more beatable than it seems.

I believe … Notre Dame is lurking in this more than people think.

I think … Notre Dame will be 11-1 because …

I know … it’ll destroy Georgia Tech and win at Stanford and …

I believe … it’s going end up 5 in the final rankings.

I think … being in the 2/3 this year really, really, really matters because …

I know … you do NOT want to be the 4 and deal with Georgia, however …

I believe … if Alabama is the 12-1 SEC Champion, it gets the 1 seed, 12-1 Georgia gets the 2, and then getting the 3 is the sucker spot instead of – at least this year with this Bama team – the 4.

I think … Houston, San Diego State, and UTSA are more in the mix for a New Year’s Six bowl game than it might seem.

I know … it’s going to end up being Houston vs Cincinnati in the American Athletic Conference Championship.

I believe … the winner will get the New Year’s Six cookie the committee throws the top Group of Five champion.

I think … no one on the committee has seen San Diego State play, because …

I know … San Diego State plays until the wee hours of the AM for most of the country.

I believe … really, there’s no way, no how, no chance any of the committee members watched the games against San Jose State, Hawaii, or Fresno State. With that said …

I think … UTSA and Houston can’t make this argument.

I know … San Diego State beat Utah, Air Force, Arizona – it has a conference win and Indiana doesn’t – and Nevada, with every game essentially on the road with the team playing its “home” games this season in Carson, California.

I believe … if San Diego State wins the Mountain West championship – and if Utah wins the Pac-12 title – even with the loss to Fresno State, resumé-wise a case could be made that it’s the most deserving Group of Five team even if Cincinnati goes 13-0.

I think … Georgia will beat Alabama in the SEC Championship in an epic-close game.

I know … there will be two other viable Power Five options that have to get in.

I believe … it would be a glorious come-to-Bill-Hancock moment for the future of the College Football Playoff if the raging national debate – and in the committee room – is over 11-2 Alabama vs 13-0 Cincinnati for that fourth spot.

I think … Georgia beats Alabama, Oregon loses to Utah or Oregon State, Wake Forest loses at Clemson.

I know … the Because It’s Alabama clause sits in a box in the corner of the CFP committee meeting room.

I believe … it’s going to end up being Georgia, Ohio State, Oklahoma State, and Cincinnati, in that order.

I think … I know it’s all going to be okay.

I know … I believe it’s all going to be okay.

I believe … I think it’s all going to be okay.

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Rankings CFP | AP | Coaches | CFN 1-130
Bowl Projections | Heisman Race
College Football Playoff Chase, Who’s Alive?
Coach Hot Seat Top 10 | Bowl Bubble: Who’s In, Out