The 14-seed Colgate Raiders (23-11) face the 3-seed Wisconsin Badgers (24-7) Friday in the first round of the Midwest Region. Tip-off at the Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee is set for 9:50 p.m. ET (TBS). Below, we look at the Colgate vs. Wisconsin odds and lines, and make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and bets.
Rankings courtesy of the Ferris Mowers Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports.
Colgate clinched an NCAA Tournament berth by adding a Patriot League tournament victory to its regular-season conference title. This is Colgate’s second consecutive Big Dance.
The Raiders are 17-15-1 against the spread (ATS), 16-17 Over/Under (O/U) and ranked 119th in adjusted net rating (according to KenPom) with the 317th-toughest schedule per USA TODAY’s Jeff Sagarin.
Wisconsin was Big Ten regular-season champ, but was eliminated by the Michigan State Spartans in the quarterfinals of the conference tourney.
The Badgers are 17-14 ATS, 19-12 O/U with KenPom’s 32nd-ranked adjusted net rating and the ninth-toughest schedule, according to Sagarin.
Also see: Bet Slippin’ Podcast: 2022 NCAA March Madness bracket betting bonanza
Colgate vs. Wisconsin odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:26 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Colgate +270 (bet $100 to win $270) | Wisconsin -360 (bet $360 to win $100)
- Against the spread: Colgate +7.5 (-112) | Wisconsin -7.5 (-108)
- Over/Under: 139.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)
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Colgate vs. Wisconsin odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Colgate 74, Wisconsin 72
Money line
SPRINKLE on COLGATE (+270), if at all, because the Raiders plus the points is a much sharper play.
However, Colgate’s experience, continuity and size give them a real shot to upset a Wisconsin team that lacks continuity. Colgate returned 81.1% of its minutes played and 77.3% of its scoring from last year’s team whereas Wisconsin returned just 42.2% of its minutes and 33.5% of its scoring.
Also, Colgate is one of the better shooting teams in the country — 10th in effective field goal percentage (eFG%) — and Wisconsin doesn’t have any glaring strength-on-weakness edges to exploit.
Furthermore, Wisconsin is a terrible shooting team (279th in eFG%) and doesn’t crash the glass (260th in offensive rebounding rate).
Again, the preferred play is the Raiders’ spread but COLGATE (+270) is too juicy to pass on.
Against the spread
Definitely BET COLGATE +7.5 (-112) heavier than or instead of its money line based on the aforementioned logic and because Wisconsin is just 1-8 ATS in the last nine games as a favorite.
The Badgers don’t have the shooting to win by margin and the Raiders have been hit by a sharp line move.
Colgate opened as 8.5-point underdogs and have been steamed down, but there’s still value in this number because Wisconsin still needs to win by more than two possessions.
I don’t trust a poor shooting and offensive rebounding team to win by margin against an experienced Colgate team.
COLGATE PLUS THE POINTS is my favorite wager in this game.
Over/Under
Slight LEAN to the OVER 139.5 (-107) because this is a Pros vs. Joe’s scenario in the betting market with more money being on the Over while more bets have been placed on the Under, per Pregame.com.
Typically, in sports betting, it’s profitable to follow the money when it’s counter to the public. Also, Wisconsin is 4-0 O/U in the last four NCAA Tournament games and 4-1 O/U in the last five games as favorites.
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