The 5-seed Dallas Mavericks (2-0) host the 4-seed Los Angeles Clippers (0-2) Friday in Game 3 as their Western Conference First Round playoff series heads to the Big D for the next two games. Tip-off at American Airlines Center is scheduled for 9:30 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze the Clippers-Mavericks odds and lines, with NBA picks and predictions.
The story of this series through two games has been Luka Doncic and Dallas’ hot shooting as the Mavs have six players shooting 40% or better from behind the arc and a 65.5% effective field goal shooting (eFG%) as a team.
Also, Kawhi Leonard and Paul George are averaging a combined 59 points per game (PPG) this series but aren’t getting much help from the Clippers’ role players.
Forward Marcus Morris Sr. is scoring just 6.5 PPG on 29.4% shooting and PG Pat Beverley is getting abused by Doncic, posting a 130 defensive rating while adding just 6.5 PPG himself.
Clippers at Mavericks: Odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 4:14 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Clippers -140 (bet $140 to win $100) | Mavericks +115 (bet $100 to win $115)
- Against the spread/ATS: Clippers -2.5 (-110) | Mavericks +2.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: 219.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Clippers at Mavericks: Key injuries
Mavericks
- PF Serge Ibaka (back) questionable
Clippers
- PF Maxi Kleber (Achilles) questionable
- SG J.J. Redick (Achilles) out
Special NBA Playoff Promotion!
Place a $1 bet on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a 3-pointer during the game.
Promotion available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA and WV.
Place all of your legal, online sports bets at BetMGM! Terms and conditions apply. Bet now!
Clippers at Mavericks: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Clippers 119, Mavericks 111
Money line (ML)
BET the CLIPPERS (-140) for 1 unit because both their terrible outside shooting and the Mavs’ red-hot outside shooting have to come back to the mean eventually in this series.
As basic as it sounds, Beverley, Morris, and Reggie Jackson cannot play any worse and there are rumors that Rajon Rondo could replace Pat Bev in the starting 5, which would be ideal in my opinion.
Also, L.A. is ahead in three of the “four factors” (turnover, rebounding and FT/FGA rates) so if Mavs’ role players like Tim Hardaway Jr. and Dorian Finney-Smith are just a smidge off Friday, the Clippers will win.
Finally, as I mentioned in this week’s Bet Slippin’ Podcast, I have a hard time believing the Mavs are getting the brooms out for the Clippers.
If they do then once this series is over let’s shop for “Kawhi Leonard’s 2021-22 team” future prices.
Play our new free daily Pick’em Challenge and win! Play now!
Against the spread (ATS)
PASS. I’d listen to the case for just laying it with the Clippers -2.5 (-110) if you want to be cheap but I’d prefer to stick with L.A.’s money line here given the stakes of Game 3.
Dallas has a chance to effectively end this season for the Clippers if it goes up 3-0, but if L.A. can steal this game they’ll be back in the series. I’d rather not fuss with the points because I could see this game ending on the final possession.
Over/Under (O/U)
Game 3’s total is 3 points higher than last game’s total and I still don’t think it’s high enough. The Mavs lit up the Clippers on their home floor and generally role players shoot better at home.
While I don’t think that’s necessarily the case here, Kawhi, and to a lesser extent PG, have proven they can get buckets vs. the Mavs and will at least help L.A.’s role players get open looks.
However, it’s a slight “LEAN” to the OVER 219.5 (-110) for a quarter unit because the market is barreling into the Over and I hate following crowds in sports betting while both teams played at a bottom-10 pace this season.
Want some action on this one? Place a bet at BetMGM now. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.
Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.
Additional NBA sports coverage:
HoopsHype | Celtics Wire | LeBron Wire | Lonzo Wire | Nets Wire | Rockets Wire | Sixers Wire | Thunder Wire | Warriors Wire | Rookie Wire | List Wire
Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.
[lawrence-newsletter]
[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1368]