The Cleveland Guardians open the regular season against the Kansas City Royals Thursday at Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Guardians vs. Royals odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: Guardians won the 2021 regular-season series vs. Royals 14-5, including 8-2 in Kansas City.
It’s a new era of baseball in Cleveland, changing from the Indians to the Guardians. The Royals hope their fortunes change against the Cleveland baseball team, too, as Kansas City really struggled against them in 2021.
The Royals went 74-88 in 2021, including 39-42 at home. But Kansas City was 69-74 against everyone but Cleveland, including 37-34 at home. The Royals also had a dismal run differential of minus-102, compared to just minus-10 for the Guardians in ’21.
Guardians at Royals: Projected starters
RHP Shane Bieber vs. RHP Zack Greinke
Bieber (7-4, 3.17 ERA in 2021) did not factor into the decision in three starts against the Royals in ’21, pitching 15 1/3 innings and striking out 22 batters.
- Bieber will make his third consecutive Opening Day start, becoming the 12th player in franchise history to work in three or more straight openers.
- Bieber was actually better on the road in 2021, posting a 5-2 record, 2.91 ERA and .211 OBA in 55 2/3 IP in nine starts.
Greinke (11-6, 4.16 ERA in 2021) posted a 1-0 record, 3.46 ERA and .213 OBA with 12 strikeouts in 13 IP in two starts vs. Cleveland in 2021.
- Greinke returns to where it all started, as he spent his first seven seasons in the majors from 2004-10 with Kansas City, winning 60 games in 169 starts and 41 relief appearances.
- Greinke posted a 2-1 record with a 3.44 ERA in six April starts in 2021. That ERA was his lowest month ERA of the entire season.
Guardians at Indians odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:01 p.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Guardians -120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Royals +100 (bet $100 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Guardians -1.5 (+135) | Royals +1.5 (-170)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -122 | U: -102)
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Guardians at Royals prediction and picks
Prediction
Guardians 4, Royals 2
Money line
The GUARDIANS (-120) are the play behind Bieber, who is the Cleveland ace. He might be the next player the team decides to lock up long term after securing All-Star Jose Ramirez to an extension prior to the 2022 opener.
The Guardians have won 16 of the past 21 visits to Kauffman Stadium, making them a solid value in this opener until the Royals prove anything is different.
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Run line/Against the spread
Take a chance on GUARDIANS -1.5 (+135) on the run line at plus-money. In 12 of the 14 victories over Kansas City in 2021, Cleveland won by two or more runs.
If you like the Guardians to win, you should also like them to do so by at least two runs.
Over/Under
The UNDER 7.5 (-102) is worth a look, but play it lightly. The Under cashed in the final two starts for Bieber in 2021, including his final outing of the season on Sept. 30 in Kansas City.
Greinke is getting settled back in with the Royals, and gives them a bona fide ace and veteran who should also keep crooked numbers off the board early.
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