The Cleveland Cavaliers (11-10) head down to “South Beach” for a 7:30 p.m. ET tip-off with the Miami Heat (13-8) at FTX Center. Below, we look at the Cavaliers vs. Heat odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions, and bets.
Cleveland has won back-to-back games against the Orlando Magic and Dallas Mavericks following a five-game losing skid. The Cavs are 14-7 ATS and 7-14 O/U with the 11th-best net rating (plus-1.4).
Miami has alternated between winning and losing over its last six games with the latest being a 120-111 home loss to the Denver Nuggets Monday. However, the Heat were without both F Jimmy Butler and G Tyler Herro for that contest. Miami is 13-8 ATS and 13-8 O/U with the fourth-best net rating (plus-5.3).
The Heat hammered the Cavs in all three regular-season meetings last year, each by a double-digit margin and the Over has cashed in six straight Heat-Cavs meetings.
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Cavaliers at Heat odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:48 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Cavaliers +160 (bet $100 to win $160) | Heat -200 (bet $200 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Cavaliers +4.5 (-107) | Heat -4.5 (-115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 206.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Cavaliers at Heat key injuries
Cavaliers
- SF Cedi Osman (back) out
- SF Dean Wade (calf) out
Heat
- SG Tyler Herro (rest) probable
- SF Jimmy Butler (back) questionable
- C Bam Adebayo (thumb) questionable
- C Dewayne Dedmon (knee) questionable
Cavaliers at Heat odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Cavaliers 107, Heat 102
Money line
Slight “LEAN” to the CAVALIERS (+160) for a tiny wager — if at all — because I like Cleveland plus the points and see a little value in the underdog’s money line.
It would be best to get any Cavs money line wagers in sooner rather than later because if Butler, Adebayo and Dedmon get announced out, the payout will plummet. That said, the much wiser bet in this game is Cleveland’s spread.
Against the spread
BET the CAVALIERS +4.5 (-107) for 1 unit because they’ve covered four straight games and the four Cleveland lost ATS prior were well within reach.
From Nov. 13-18, the Cavaliers were 0-4 ATS against the Boston Celtics (twice), Brooklyn Nets and Golden State Warriors. However, Cleveland missed an ATS win by a combined two points in both games against Boston and six combined points versus Golden State and Brooklyn.
In their meeting with the Warriors Nov. 18, the Cavs were without three starters and actually won three of the four quarters. Cleveland failed to cover due to Golden State outscoring the Cavs 26-8 in the fourth quarter.
Furthermore, Cleveland has the second-best cover rate as an underdog at 12-5-1 ATS and is 7-3-1 ATS at home this season.
Cleveland generates the third-most shot attempts off of cuts according to ShotQuality.com and attempts the fourth-highest rate of field goals at the rim according to CleaningTheGlass.com.
Whereas Miami is dead-last in defensive shot quality vs. field goals off of cuts and 28th in defensive field goal percentage vs. shots at the rim.
Finally, the Cavs have been hit by “sharp money” as Cleveland has been lowered from an 8-point underdog on the lookahead line down to the current price.
The CAVALIERS +4.5 (-107) is my favorite bet in this game.
Over/Under
PASS with a slight “LEAN” to the OVER 206.5 (-110) since that has been hit by sharp money as well.
There is some basketball logic to taking the Over in Cavaliers-Heat. Cleveland generates a lot of its offense off of cuts and shots at the rim.
Miami’s defense gives up easy looks off of cuts and doesn’t have the best rim protection. Plus if the Heat are without three frontcourt players then the Cavs should have an easier time getting to the rim. Also, Cleveland doesn’t defend post-up offense well and Miami thrives out of the post offensively.
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