The Cleveland Cavaliers (10-10) stop by American Airlines Center Monday for an 8:30 p.m. ET game against the Dallas Mavericks (10-8). Below, we look at the Cavaliers vs. Mavericks odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions, and bets.
Cleveland snapped its five-game losing skid Saturday with a 105-92 home victory over the Orlando Magic. The Cavs are 13-7 ATS and 7-13 O/U with the 16th-best net rating (plus-0.5).
Dallas has lost four of its past five games (3-2 ATS), which includes a 120-114 loss at home Saturday to the Washington Wizards. The Mavs are 8-10 ATS and 7-10-1 O/U with the 22nd-ranked net rating (minus-1.6).
The Mavs have a six-game winning streak over the Cavs (5-0-1 ATS) and the Over cashed in four of those contests.
Cavaliers at Mavericks odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:05 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Cavaliers +220 (bet $100 to win $220) | Mavericks -280 (bet $280 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Cavaliers +6.5 (-110) | Mavericks -6.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 210.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)
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Cavaliers at Mavericks key injuries
Cavaliers
- SF Cedi Osman (back) questionable
Mavericks
- PG Jalen Brunson (foot) probable
- C Willie Cauley-Stein (illness) questionable
Cavaliers at Mavericks odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Mavericks 108, Cavaliers 105
Money line
PASS on the Cavaliers (+220) since I only “lean” to Cleveland plus the points and don’t see enough value on the underdog to sprinkle on the money line.
Against the spread
“LEAN” to the CAVALIERS +6.5 (-110) because Cleveland has a higher net rating, plays very well as a road underdog and there’s “reverse line movement” in Cleveland’s direction.
For instance, the Cavs are 6-2-1 ATS as a road underdog with a plus-8.4 ATS margin whereas the Mavs have the fourth-worst cover rate as a home favorite since the beginning of last year at 13-21 ATS with a minus-4.3 ATS margin.
Furthermore, Dallas opened as a 7-point favorite, and despite getting a vast majority of the action, the Mavs’ spread has been lowered to the current price.
On top of that, Cleveland matches up well stylistically vs. Dallas. The Cavs attempt the fourth-highest volume of shots at the rim and the Mavs are 26th in defensive field goal percentage vs. attempts at the rim, according to CleaningTheGlass.com.
Also, Luka Doncic plays the sixth-highest frequency of isolation offense and Cleveland’s defense ranks seventh in efficiency vs. isolation offense. Plus I think it’s easier for Cleveland’s perimeter defense to stay in front of a slow-paced Dallas offense since the Cavs have a lot of size in their frontcourt.
Over/Under
Slight “LEAN” to the OVER 210.5 (-107) for a tiny wager if at all because the market has steamed the Cavaliers-Mavericks total up from the 205.5-point lookahead number.
This line movement is puzzling because both teams have a below-average offensive rating and are bottom-seven in pace. Yet the total has increased?
I’d be more into betting the Over if we weren’t late to the party. My favorite play is Cleveland plus the points, but there’s value in OVER 210.5 (-107).
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