How many games will the Cleveland Browns win in the 2020 NFL season? We look at BetMGM‘s projected win total and the Over/Under odds, while looking back at the 2019 season and key offseason roster changes.
Cleveland Browns’ 2019 season
Heading into the 2019 season, the Browns were viewed as a legitimate playoff threat in the AFC with an outside chance of making the Super Bowl. But that didn’t happen as they got off to a rough start, going 2-6 in the first half of the season. The team got hot for a month, and then fell off, losing their last three games.
Despite adding players like WR Odell Beckham and RB Kareem Hunt to their offense, the Browns struggled to score. They averaged just 20.9 points per game, the 11th-fewest in the NFL. The defense had its moments, but they allowed 27 or more points in seven contests.
But the worst part of the 2019 season for the Browns was the regression of QB Baker Mayfield. After setting records in 2018, Mayfield saw a decline in all of his passing stats and efficiency. The worst part of the regression was the turnovers as Mayfield threw 21 interceptions and took 40 sacks. Entering Year 3, there is now suddenly concerns about Mayfield’s future in Cleveland.
By all accounts, it was a disappointing season as the team once again fired their head coach in Freddie Kitchens. Despite all the hype, Cleveland was a bad team during the 2019 season.
Cleveland Browns’ 2020 offseason changes
The biggest change for the Browns this offseason was hiring HC Kevin Stefanski. While Stefanski has never been a head coach in the NFL, he has a solid track record of getting the most out of an offense. In his only year as an offensive coordinator, the Minnesota Vikings finished eighth in scoring, averaging 25.4 points per game.
One of the most significant additions in the entire NFL was Stefanski hiring offensive line coach Bill Callahan. The Browns’ offensive line has been a problem for years and they’ve now brought in arguably the best offensive line coach in history to solve it. Cleveland has also brought talent to the unit, signing former All-Pro OT Jack Conklin and selecting former SEC star OT Jedrick Wills with the No. 10 pick in the 2020 NFL Draft.
Cleveland was very aggressive in free agency, signing proven talents like TE Austin Hooper, SS Karl Joseph and FB Andy Janovich. This is a roster that is much more talented than a year ago, especially in the trenches.
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Cleveland Browns’ 2020 schedule
Week 1: at Baltimore Ravens
Week 2: vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Week 3: vs. Washington Football Team
Week 4: at Dallas Cowboys
Week 5: vs. Indianapolis Colts
Week 6: at Pittsburgh Steelers
Week 7: at Cincinnati Bengals
Week 8: vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Week 9: BYE
Week 10: vs. Houston Texans
Week 11: vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Week 12: at Jacksonville Jaguars
Week 13: at Tennessee Titans
Week 14: vs. Baltimore Ravens
Week 15: at New York Giants
Week 16: at New York Jets
Week 17: vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Cleveland Browns’ 2020 win total: Best bet
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Odds last updated Wednesday, Aug. 5 at 1 p.m. ET.
Projected wins: 8.5 / OVER: -125 / UNDER: +105
The Browns’ win total is set at 8.5 this season, which essentially means you are betting on or against them to make the playoffs with now seven teams from each conference getting in. However, it’s tough to envision the Browns winning nine games or more this season, given their schedule and teams inside their division.
The Ravens have one of the league’s best rosters and are poised to make another run at the No. 1 seed in the conference. Pittsburgh won eight games last season despite Ben Roethlisberger missing 14 games. It’s fair to think with even average quarterback play, that team is good enough to win double-digit games this season.
Cleveland will likely be a much-improved team this season, but to expect them to improve by three wins or more with the current state of the AFC North seems a bit too unrealistic. With a new head coaching staff in place, it will likely take some time for this team to gel. And considering the odds, bet the UNDER 8.5 wins (+105).
Exact season wins – bands
0-4 wins: +2200
5-8 wins: -120
9-12 wins: -105
13-16 wins: +3500
The best bet here in terms of value is Browns between 0-4 wins (+2200). While that seems highly unlikely, there is a chance the team takes a step backward, rather than forward with a new coaching staff. Still, that bet doesn’t present enough value. Considering the value, PASS on exact win bands and opt for the over/under as it presents better odds.
Exact wins: Best bet
If you are feeling extra risky, consider betting on the Browns to win exactly 8 games (+280) this season. After the team improved both tackle spots this offseason and brought in Hooper, it’s likely that the Browns will improve on offense. But will they improve by more than two wins? That is the question you must ask yourself.
However, an 8-8 season in 2020 would be a step in the right direction for the Browns’ organization and it does feel fairly likely. Consider betting on them to win exactly 8 games this season at very reasonable odds.
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