This isn’t a column to discuss the debate of the NFL allowing QB Deshaun Watson to play Sunday in Week 13 when the Cleveland Browns (4-7) visit the Houston Texans (1-9-1) at 1 p.m. ET (CBS). It’s about the opportunity for the sports gambler to make some money as Watson makes his season debut after serving an 11-game suspension for violating the NFL’s personal conduct policy.
Below, we break down Tipico Sportsbook’s NFL prop bet odds and lines, and tab the best Deshaun Watson Week 13 prop bets to cash in on among SportbookWire’s NFL expert picks and predictions.
Watson will face his former team in the Texans Sunday. Watson last played 2 seasons ago in Week 17 (Jan. 3, 2021) when he threw for 365 yards and 3 TDs in a 41-38 home loss to the Tennessee Titans. He started every game that season as Houston struggled through a 4-12 campaign.
Watson demanded a trade after the season, but the Texans weren’t willing to negotiate. He ended up on the inactive list — for “non-injury reasons/personal matter” – and hasn’t played in a regular-season game since.
He was traded to Cleveland in March of 2022 and soon signed a guaranteed 5-year, $230-million deal before receiving the 11-game suspension.
Sunday, he returns to the field.
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Best Deshaun Watson prop bets to make in Week 13
Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 7:38 p.m. ET.
UNDER 239.5 passing yards (-115)
Watson hasn’t played a competitive game at this level in 699 days. There’s no way he’ll be at the top of his game.
But the big reason Watson won’t throw for 240 yards or more is because of Cleveland RB Nick Chubb and Houston’s weak rush defense.
Chubb has 1,039 rushing yards this season — ranking 3rd behind Las Vegas’ Josh Jacobs (1,159) and Tennessee’s Derrick Henry (1,048).
Houston’s rush defense ranks last, allowing 168.6 yards per game.
Look for the Browns to utilize their star back a majority of the day, which will minimize Watson’s passing attempts.
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UNDER 20.5 pass completions (-115)
& UNDER 31.5 pass attempts (-115)
For the same reasons above, the lean is to the Under on these 2 props.
However, AVOID as there’s no need to double down — or triple down — with our UNDER 239.5 passing yards bet.
However, I could see divvying up 1.5 UNITS between the 3 options (Under passing yards, completions and attempts).
OVER 0.5 interceptions (+135)
Watson hasn’t faced an NFL pass rush in some time and he won’t know what hits him Sunday. He’ll likely panic and throw 1 away in the wrong direction.
With Houston’s defense having 7 INTs this season — to rank in the middle of the pack — don’t make this a big bet. We’re getting value with the “plus-money” at +135, anyway.
If you’re wondering, the Under on this prop is listed at -170.
OVER/UNDER 1.5 passing TDs (+100 | -130)
PASS on this prop, no pun intended.
If I had to choose, it’s an Under play because of Chubb vs. Houston’s Swiss cheese rush defense.
There’s no reason Watson should be throwing the ball that much Sunday.
In the Texans’ 11 games, they allowed Over 1.5 TDs just 3 times. The other 8 games would be winners on an Under play here.
OVER 24.5 rushing yards (-115)
Running the ball will be much easier than passing the ball for Watson in his 1st game back.
In his last full season, he ran for 25 yards or more in 11 of Houston’s 16 games.
Against Houston’s rush defense, he’ll likely do so Sunday.
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