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The 6th-seeded Clemson Tigers (23-11) and 2nd-seeded Arizona Wildcats (27-8) meet in a West Region semifinal of the NCAA Tournament. Tip-off at crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles will be at 7:09 p.m. ET (CBS). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Clemson vs. Arizona odds, and make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and best bets.
Clemson has thus far advanced with victories over New Mexico and Baylor. On Sunday, the Tigers were +4.5 underdogs against the Bears and beat 3rd-seeded Baylor 72-64. Clemson won the game in wire-to-wire fashion in advancing to the Sweet 16 for the 2nd time in its history.
Arizona, ranked No. 9 in the USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll, defeated the 7th-seeded Dayton Flyers 78-68 (covering a -8.5) on Saturday. The Wildcats have thus far held foes to a 36.6% field-goal percentage in this tournament. They are in their 7th Sweet 16 since 2011.
Clemson vs. Arizona odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Wednesday at 3:55 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Clemson +250 (bet $100 to win $250) | Arizona -300 (bet $300 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Clemson +7.5 (-110) | Arizona -7.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 151.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Clemson vs. Arizona picks and predictions
Prediction
Arizona 81, Clemson 72
Moneyline
At -300, Arizona’s implied win probability is 75%. That’s not an actionable value point, but its not far off. PASS for now, but bettors with enough bankroll to leverage opportunities like this should consider the Wildcats if the tag falls below -290.
Peg UA as being closer to an 80% prospect here. The Wildcats are a robust 8-3 in their Quadrant 1 games (learn more about college hoops quadrants here).
Against the spread
Arizona plays at a faster tempo than Clemson and is the more efficient squad at both ends of the floor. KenPom ranks the Wildcats as being No. 9 in offensive efficiency and No. 10 on defense (CU comes in at Nos. 24 and 38, respectively).
The Tigers have generally fared well against faster teams, but the ACC offered no similar comps to Arizona when it comes to the Wildcats’ rebounding and 3-point shooting. UA ranks in KenPom’s top-20 in both categories and has shot a robust 39.6% from distance in this Tournament.
Arizona can sometimes be leaky in taking care of the basketball, but Clemson is not a take-away type of defense. With Arizona figuring to also have an edge in free throws, BACK THE WILDCATS -7.5 (-110).
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Over/Under
Both sides are riding significant Under trends heading into this one, but this contest sets up as a zag.
Its reasonable to be looking for some regression in Arizona’s defensive field-goal numbers here. Add in what the Wildcats do well — offensive rebounds and put-backs, free throws, 3s — and with those being score-spiral factors, the OVER 151.5 (-115) is a slight lean.
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