The Cincinnati Reds (74-67) visit the St. Louis Cardinals (71-68) Friday to start a three-game series at Busch Stadium with first pitch scheduled for 8:15 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Reds vs. Cardinals odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: Reds lead 9-7.
RHP Tyler Mahle is on the rubber for the Reds. Mahle is 11-5 with a 3.76 ERA (153 1/3 IP, 64 ER), 1.21 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 10.7 K/9 over 28 starts.
- Last outing: Win, 7-4, with 5 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 5 BB and 8 K Saturday vs. the Detroit Tigers.
- Mahle is 2-0 this season against St. Louis with a 3.18 ERA (17 IP, 6 ER), 14 H, 7 BB and 22 K in three starts.
- vs. Cardinals on the current roster (171 PA): 4.53 FIP with a .234 batting average (BA), .308 wOBA, .412 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 24.6 K% and 87.4 mph exit velocity (EV).
LHP Jon Lester is St. Louis’s projected starter. Lester is 5-6 with a 4.89 ERA (112 1/3 IP, 61 ER), 1.58 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 5.6 K/9 in 23 starts for the Cardinals and the Washington Nationals.
- Last outing: No-decision with 5 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 2 BB and 2 K in St. Louis’s 6-5 loss at the Milwaukee Brewers Sunday.
- Lester beat Cincy, 3-1, Aug. 30 with a stat line of 6 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 1 H, 2 BB and 5 K.
- vs. Reds on the current roster (253 PA): 4.78 FIP with a .249 BA, .324 wOBA, .439 xSLG, 20.6 K% and 87.2 mph EV.
Reds at Cardinals odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:57 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Reds -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Cardinals +102 (bet $100 to win $102)
- Against the spread/ATS: Reds -1.5 (+133) | Cardinals +1.5 (-165)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -102 | U: -122)
PLAY: Free, daily sports pick’em contests. Play now!
Prediction
Cardinals 5, Reds 2
Money line (ML)
There was a heavy discrepancy between the “pros” and “joes” in the early morning action report that shaped the line most of us are looking at currently.
Two-thirds of the cash was on the Cardinals’ money line but nearly 60% of all bets placed were with the Reds, according to Pregame.com.
However, the oddsmakers sided with the presumed “sharp” money and have moved the line slightly in St. Louis’s direction, which started with the Reds laying -135 on the consensus money line.
I’d guess the sharp line movement is due to the fact that Cincy’s lineup ranks 28th in wRC+, 26th in wOBA and the sixth-highest K% against left-handed pitching.
St. Louis’s lineup has hit much better than Cincy’s recently. The Cardinals have a 111 wRC+ (ranked seventh in MLB), 3.6 WAR (ranked fourth) and .334 wOBA (ranked eighth) over the last two weeks. Whereas the Reds rank 21st or 22nd in each of those metrics in that timespan.
BET 1 unit on the CARDINALS (+102).
FANTASY BASEBALL: Serious about winning your league? Sign up for BaseballHQ.com to dominate the competition. Subscribe now!
Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS with a slight “lean” to the Cardinals +1.5 (-165) because I like St. Louis’s money line and would love to get some insurance for that bet.
However, the Cardinals are 13-11 ATS as home underdogs and the Reds are 7-17 ATS as road favorites so I’d entertain throwing St. Louis’s run line in a parlay with a similarly priced side. But, as a standalone wager at this price point, PASS.
Over/Under (O/U)
Slight “LEAN” to the UNDER 8.5 (-122) for a tiny wager only because I much prefer the Cardinals outright than the total in this contest.
That said, Cincy’s lineup struggles to produce against lefties, St. Louis’s lineup is below-average across several advanced hitting categories and Mahle is a lot more effective on the road than at home.
For example, Mahle is 7-2 in 15 road starts this season with a 1.90 ERA (6.09 home ERA), 0.98 WHIP (1.50 home WHIP) and 3.6 K/BB (3.2 K/BB at home). In fact, Mahle has given up 4 home runs in his two home starts against the Cardinals this year and no homer in his start in St. Louis.
For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.
Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.
Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.
[lawrence-newsletter]
[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1372]