The Chicago Cubs (64-75) host the Cincinnati Reds (73-66) Tuesday for the second game of their three-game series at Wrigley Field. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Reds vs. Cubs odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Chicago upset Cincy in the series opener 4-3. The Cubs came out the gate with a 3-run bottom of the 1st before the Reds tied the game with a 3-run top of the 6th but Chicago 1B Frank Schwindel‘s go-ahead RBI single in the bottom of the 8th was the difference-maker.
Season series: Reds lead 10-7.
LHP Wade Miley gets the nod for the Reds. Miley is 11-5 with a 2.97 ERA (148 2/3 IP, 49 ER), 1.27 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 6.9 K/9 in 25 starts.
- Last outing: Loss, 5-4, with 4 IP, 5 ER, 12 H, 1 BB and 2 K vs. the St. Louis Cardinals Wednesday.
- Miley is 2-0 against Chicago this season with a 2.74 ERA (23 IP, 7 ER), 1.52 WHIP and 1.7 K/BB in four starts.
- vs. Cubs on the current roster (120 PA): 2.58 FIP with a .239 batting average (BA), .284 wOBA, .338 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 15.8 K% and 85.4 mph exit velocity (EV).
RHP Adrian Sampson is Chicago’s projected starter. Sampson is 0-1 with a 1.59 ERA (11 1/3 IP, 2 ER) with 10 H, 2 BB and 11 K across one start and four relief appearances.
- Sampson got a no-decision in Chicago’s 7-1 win in Cincy Aug. 18 in his only start this season. He had 4 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 0 BB and 2 K in the outing.
Reds at Cubs odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 3:30 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Reds -165 (bet $165 to win $100) | Cubs +133 (bet $100 to win $133)
- Against the spread/ATS: Reds -1.5 (-105) | Cubs +1.5 (-115)
- Over/Under: 9.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)
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Prediction
Cubs 6, Reds 5
Money line (ML)
If anyone has guesses as to how the tanking Chicago Cubs are on a seven-game win streak I’m all ears. Chicago moved its championship core and three best relief pitchers at the trade deadline but have been three games better over the past 20 than a Cincy team in the NL Wild Card hunt.
Over the past two weeks, Chicago’s lineup is in the top 10 of wRC+, wOBA and WAR while Cincy’s has ranked 24th or worse in each metric. Also, we are getting a substantial “line freeze” in the betting market.
According to Pregame.com, nearly 80% of the cash wagered is on the Reds but their price hasn’t budged since the opening number. It’s pretty sketchy that four of five bettors are taking Cincy but the line hasn’t moved. Hmmmmm.
Slight “LEAN” to the CUBS (+133) for a tiny wager because Chicago’s run line has more value in my opinion.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Definitely BET the CUBS +1.5 (-115) heavier than or instead of their money line because of the aforementioned analysis.
We have the same “line freeze” situation with the run line as the money line market. Also, Cincy’s bullpen has been its biggest question mark all season. Chicago’s lineup could certainly “sneak in the backdoor” and cover against the Reds relievers if this game doesn’t go the way we expect it.
Over/Under (O/U)
PASS with a slight “lean” to the UNDER 9.5 (-115) because both sides of the market are hammering the Under for reasons I’m not very clear on. Since I cannot find any Under-friendly angles, I’ll stick with the Cubs’ sides wagers.
However, the sportsbooks have reacted by bringing the Reds-Cubs total down from the 10.5-run opener to the current price so the House is leery about all the pro-Under money.
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