In a women’s flyweight bout on the main card, Katlyn Chookagian and Cynthia Calvillo meet at UFC 255 Saturday at the UFC’s APEX facility in Las Vegas. The early prelims kick off at 6:30 p.m. ET on ESPN2/ESPN+, followed by the prelims at 8 p.m. ET and the main card at 10 p.m. ET on pay-per-view.
Chookagian (14-4) enters this match with a few things in her favor. She stands five inches taller than her counterpart, and she has a four-inch reach advantage. The significant strikes landed per minute is essentially even, but where Chookagian is well behind will be in the ground game. Calvillo (9-1-1) has a 1.97 to 0.30 advantage in the takedown-average category, as well as an overwhelming 46.67 to 15.79 takedown-accuracy percentage. In addition, Calvillo is well ahead 1.26 to 0.50 in submission average. In other words, it will behoove Chookagian to keep this fight upright.
Chookagian has been spinning her wheels lately. She lost a title shot at UFC 247 against Valentina Shevchenko on Feb. 8. She bounced back with a little revenge against Antonina Shevchenko on May 30 at this same venue before a first-round KO/TKO loss to Jessica Andrade last time out on Oct. 17. Chookagian has never lost back-to-back fights in her professional career, so she has that going for her. Two of her past three fights, though they were losses, have been inside the distance. In 18 pro fights, only one has been via submission, and that was a win.
The grappler extraordinaire Calvillo is unbeaten in the past four with a draw against Marina Rodriguez along the way. Three of Calvillo’s six wins at the UFC level have been via submission, and it’s a number she’ll try to add to here. Just one of her past six fights have finished inside the distance, though.
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Katlyn Chookagian vs. Cynthia Calvillo: Betting odds, predictions and picks
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 3:58 a.m. ET.
Calvillo (-264) is a heavy favorite to deal Chookagian (+215) her first two-bout losing streak, but you cannot risk more than two and a half times your potential return on the 2-way line. Let’s get more specific.
CALVILLO BY KO/TKO, DQ or SUBMISSION (+400) is a stunning value play. The books expect this one to go the distance, but playing the above could help you quadruple up. That’s too hard to pass up. CALVILLO BY DECISION (-121) is not nearly as attractive, but isn’t a bad hedge.
In addition, taking CALVILLO IN ROUND 1 (+800), CALVILLO IN ROUND 2 (+1100) and CALVILLO IN ROUND 3 (+1700) – yes, all three – is worth a look. If she finishes inside the distance, you will lose two ends of that wager, but you’ll be so far ahead. It’s worth the risk, especially more so than taking her on the 2-way line.
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Also see:
- UFC 255 predictions (MMA Junkie)
- Burning questions heading into UFC 255 (MMA Junkie)
- More UFC/MMA coverage from MMA Junkie
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