[jwplayer UEGdyXoC]
The New England Patriots (10-2) host the Kansas City Chiefs (8-4) at Gillette Stadium Sunday with kickoff scheduled for 4:25 p.m. ET. We analyze the Patriots-Chiefs odds and betting lines, providing actionable wagering advice around this huge Week 14 NFL matchup.
Chiefs at Patriots: Week 14 preview, betting trends and notes
BetMGM Sunday Special New Jersey Prop Bet!
Bet $1, WIN $100 in free bets if QB Tom Brady completes a pass against the Chiefs Sunday, Dec. 8th. Bet now!
Visit BetMGM for terms and conditions.
- The Patriots lost two of their last four and didn’t win the other two games convincingly over the last month. They’re coming off a 28-22 loss to the Houston Texans, where their offensive issues were once again on full display.
- The Chiefs easily bested the Oakland Raiders 40-9 last weekend and have won their past two games.
- Since 2016, these two teams have met four times, including two playoff battles. The last meeting was a 37-31 overtime victory for New England this past January. The Patriots have won three of the last four.
- Only one of their last four matchups was by a wide margin: A 42-27 victory for Kansas City in ’17. In that span, the Patriots averaged 33.5 points and the Chiefs averaged 33.3.
- Patriots QB Tom Brady has looked mortal recently; four of his last five games have sported completion rates lower than 56%. Each of his past two games have been 51.1% or lower, which includes a 45.9% showing in a win over the Dallas Cowboys. Contain WR Julian Edleman and RB James White right now and you contain (and frustrate) Brady.
- New England ranks 14th in the league with 360.8 yards per game and rank sixth with 26.8 points per game. The Patriots have averaged just 18 PPG the past month. The Chiefs D allows 372.1 YPG, eighth-worst in the NFL.
- Kansas City averages 384.7 YPG, fourth-best in the league. It’s third-best with 29 PPG. New England’s D has been a storyline all season, but it has shown holes against better offenses. The Patriots rank first in scoring defense (12.1 points/game) and second in yardage (258.0 yards/game).
Chiefs at Patriots: Key injuries
Brady (toe, right elbow), WR Mohamed Sanu Sr. (ankle) and Edelman (shoulder) are all likely to be questionable for the week; expect them to play. It’s too early to tell whether CB Jason McCourty (groin) will return.
RB Damien Williams (rib) is a question mark for the Chiefs; DE Frank Clark (shoulder) was limited Wednesday.
Chiefs at Patriots: Odds, betting lines and prediction
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 10:15 a.m. ET.
Prediction
Chiefs 24, Patriots 20
Moneyline (?)
Beating New England (-173) at Gillette, where they are 5-0 this year, is never easy, but KC, 4-1 on the road, has played here a lot the last few years. It’s rare I advocate betting against the Pats at home, but there haven’t been enough signs the running game will improve to help the passing game. Take the plus-money on KANSAS CITY (+145) to the bank.
New to sports betting? A $10 wager on Kansas City to pull the upset profits $14.50 with an outright win.
Against the Spread (?)
The Patriots are just 3-2 ATS at home this year and 7-5 overall. Kansas City is also 7-5 ATS, but 4-2 on the road. A 2.5-point line has been given to the home team (-134) here; but sticking with the CHIEFS (+2.5, +110) is the play.
The moneyline has a better return, so I’d put my money there rather than pay for the 2.5 points of insurance.
Over/Under (?)
The line of 49.5 is tied for highest on this weekend’s slate. In the last four meetings, these two averaged 66.8 combined points per game. With the Pats’ (who are 2-3-0 vs. the O/U at home (4-8-0 overall)) offense struggling, it’s a lofty line. The defense will break at points, but even when they have against better teams this year, they’ve given up 28 or more points just twice all season. The Chiefs are 3-3-0 vs. the O/U on the road. Keep riding the UNDER (-115).
Want action on this game? Sign up and bet at BetMGM. If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com.
Ryan’s NFL Picks: 27-15
Follow @RyanBonini and @SportsbookWire on Twitter.
Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.
[lawrence-newsletter]
[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1367]