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With 1B/OF Cody Bellinger leading the way, the 2023 Chicago Cubs scored 819 runs, went 83-79 (.512) and placed 2nd in the NL Central. Scoring 5.06 runs per game while allowing 4.46 and going 21-24 in 1-run games, it’s likely the Cubs underplayed their run differential by a fair amount. Chicago’s National League entry may indeed have been more of a 90-win team.
With Bellinger, who banged out an .881 OPS and bat-heavy 4.0 WAR (FanGraphs), back after testing the market in free agency and with few key roster losses, the Cubs are the favorites in the NL Central this season. Let’s analyze the Chicago Cubs’ World Series odds, along with their projected win total, playoff, division and NL odds as we make our expert MLB picks and predictions.
Chicago Cubs World Series odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Monday, March 25, at 1:41 p.m. ET.
Odds: +3000 (bet $100 to win $3,000)
At +3000, Chicago has an implied probability of winning the World Series of 3.23% or 30/1 fractional odds.
The Cubs have “1st division” odds to win the World Series: they are in the top half of the odds listings, coming in at 11th-shortest. The Los Angeles Dodgers (+350), Atlanta Braves (+450), and Houston Astros (+800) have the shortest odds. The Chicago White Sox, Colorado Rockies and Oakland Athletics have the longest odds; all 3 are pegged at +50000.
STEER CLEAR on this proposition. In what figures as a highly competitive NL Central, the Cubs are certainly in the mix. But just in the mix, and that mix spills out into a broader National League pennant race dominated by the Braves and Dodgers.
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Chicago Cubs playoff odds
Will they make the playoffs: Yes -125 | No +105
The Yes play is too aggressive. It requires a 55.56% probability to break even, and that’s too optimistic for a club with enough pitching question marks and which may have been out too far over its analytic skis with its run production a year ago.
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Chicago Cubs win total
Over/Under: 84.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Expectations of a 3-horse race, or something close to it, with the St. Louis Cardinals, Cubs and Cincinnati Reds spreading out wins makes the Under a slight lean here.
The Chicago offense was potent a year ago but may be due for some slight regression. The run scoring was certainly added by a .322 batting average on balls in play with runners in scoring position and a .312 BABIB in high-leverage situations. The Cubs’ slugging mark was not fully supported by advanced exit-velocity metrics.
A PASS is suggested, but look to leverage an Under play if the Chicago total climbs to 85.5.
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To win NL East Division
- St. Louis Cardinals +175 (bet $100 to win $175)
- Chicago Cubs +200 (bet $100 to win $200)
- Cincinnati Reds +340 (bet $100 to win $340)
- Milwaukee Brewers +750 (bet $100 to win $750)
- Pittsburgh Pirates +1300 (bet $100 to win $1,300)
Chicago’s implied probability of winning the NL Central is 33.33% or 2/1 fractional odds. Peg the Cubs as more of a 25-30% possibility to come out on top in this division. PASS.
To win National League
Odds: +1600 (bet $100 to win $1,600)
Not enough return here. Up and down, the public’s prognosis for this ballclub is just a tad aggressive. Chicago winning 82-86 games and being a Wild Card contender would not be a surprise. But coming up short at or under-.500 would not be off the radar at all.
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