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The Atlanta Falcons (4-6) welcome the Chicago Bears (3-7) to Mercedes-Benz Stadium Sunday. Kickoff is set for 1 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Bears vs. Falcons odds, and make our expert NFL picks and predictions.
The Bears are coming into this game after failing to cover as 3-point home favorites in a 31-30 loss to Detroit. Chicago is 4-5-1 against the spread (ATS) this season.
QB Justin Fields has looked dynamic as of late and leads the team in rushing (749 yards) and passing (1,489 yards). He has 18 combined touchdowns. However, the Bears give up the 25th-most points per game this season as well.
The Falcons started off the season 3-3, but have struggled lately, losing 2 straight and 3 of their last 4. Atlanta has failed to cover 4 straight games after covering its first 6 straight.
QB Marcus Mariota has been the key weapon for Atlanta, and he has 1,747 passing yards and 12 touchdowns. Their running work has been led by a committee of players with rookie RB Tyler Allgeier leading the way.
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Bears at Falcons odds
Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 1:45 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Bears +135 (bet $100 to win $135) | Falcons -155 (bet $155 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Bears +3 (-117) | Falcons -3 (-103)
- Over/Under (O/U): 49 (O: -109 | U: -111)
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Bears at Falcons key injuries
Bears
- RB Khalil Herbert (hip) out
Falcons
- CB A.J. Terrell (hamstring) questionable
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Bears at Falcons picks and predictions
Prediction
Atlanta 28, Chicago 27
Moneyline
PASS.
I’d back Atlanta here but would avoid its moneyline at -155.
Against the spread
LEAN BEARS +3 (-117).
The Falcons failed to cover in their only two games as favorites this season. The Falcons are 3-2 straight up at home with two of those wins coming by 3 points, so this is a relatively safe number for Chicago backers.
Chicago has also been impressive as of late, beating New England 33-14 in Week 7 and having lost to Miami 35-32 in Week 9.
The Falcons also could be down their best quarterback, which would aid a weakness for Chicago as Fields’ completion rate is just 58.9% on the season. That could be an impactful absence for Atlanta.
I expect a close battle, which would preferably make the underdog the better bet here.
Over/Under
BET OVER 49 (-109).
Chicago and Atlanta both rank at the bottom of the NFL in opponents’ third down conversion rate.
Atlanta also sits with the second-most opponents’ red zone attempts per game. Fields has been playing at a high level with his dual-threat ability, and that should help drive on a flimsy Falcons offense.
Chicago is 6-4 O/U this season and put up 30 points on a weak Lions defense last week, leaving no doubt that it should be able to drive well on a softer Atlanta side.
Similarly, the Bears gave up 30 and rank 25th in opponents’ points per game, which means Atlanta should be able to score often as well.
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