The red-hot Milwaukee Bucks (13-8) host the Charlotte Hornets (13-10) Wednesday at the Fiserv Forum for an 8 p.m. ET tip-off. Below, we look at the Hornets vs. Bucks odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions, and bets.
Charlotte has lost back-to-back road games to the Houston Rockets and Chicago Bulls following a three-game winning streak. The Hornets are 12-11 ATS and 13-10 O/U with the 16th-ranked net rating.
Milwaukee has won seven straight games since two-time All-Star wing Khris Middleton returned from injury. Over that span, the Bucks have the best net rating, best rebounding rate and best defensive efficiency. The Bucks are 10-11 ATS and 7-14 O/U with the seventh-best net rating.
The Hornets were 2-1 overall and ATS last season vs. the Bucks and the Over was 2-1 in those contests.
Hornets at Bucks odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 8 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Hornets +310 (bet $100 to win $310) | Bucks -410 (bet $410 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Hornets +8.5 (-120) | Bucks -8.5 (-105)
- Over/Under (O/U): 229.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)
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Hornets at Bucks key injuries
Hornets
- SF Cody Martin (illness) out
- C Mason Plumlee (calf) out
Bucks
- C Brook Lopez (back) out
- SG Donte DiVincenzo (ankle) out
Hornets at Bucks odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Bucks 122, Hornets 110
Money line
PASS since Milwaukee is the right side, but the Bucks (-410) is out of my price range for an NBA regular-season favorite. Also, the Hornets are 3-7 overall as a road underdog with a minus-7.6 margin of victory.
Against the spread
BET the BUCKS -8.5 (-105) because Charlotte’s defense is awful, Milwaukee puts up 120-plus points and I don’t think the Hornets can keep up.
Furthermore, the Bucks crush bad defenses: Milwaukee is 4-1 overall with the second-highest efficiency differential and a plus-5.1 ATS margin vs. teams in the bottom-10 defenses (according to CleaningTheGlass.com).
Last year, the Bucks were just as dominant vs. bad defenses: Milwaukee was 18-5 overall with the second-best efficiency differential and plus-2.1 ATS margin.
On the other hand, the Hornets struggle vs. elite defenses: Charlotte is 3-6 overall with a minus-3.9 efficiency differential and a minus-2.7 ATS margin vs. teams in the top-10 of defensive efficiency.
Also, Milwaukee plays the third-highest volume of isolation basketball, and Charlotte has the fifth-worst defensive efficiency vs. isolation offense. The Bucks running their offense through Giannis Antetokounmpo and Middleton opens up looks for Milwaukee’s 3-point specialists.
Over/Under
“LEAN” to the OVER 229.5 (-112) for a small wager if at all because, including all the previous analysis, Charlotte plays matador defense but can exploit Milwaukee’s mediocre transition defense.
The Hornets get out in transition at the highest frequency in the league and score the fifth-most fast-break points per game while the Bucks have the seventh-worst defensive efficiency in transition.
However, both teams like to push the pace, and I think the Bucks will engage the Hornets in a back-and-forth shootout because why not? Milwaukee ultimately can get stops when it needs to whereas Charlotte cannot stop a nosebleed.
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