In a lightweight championship bout in the main event, Charles Oliveira and Justin Gaethje meet Saturday at UFC 274 at the Footprint Center in Phoenix, Ariz. Below, we analyze the UFC 274 Oliveira vs. Gaethje odds and lines, with picks and predictions.
The fights can be viewed on ESPN/ESPN+ with the early prelims starting at 5:30 p.m. ET, and the prelims starting at 8 p.m. The main card begins on Pay-Per-View at 10:00 p.m. ET.
The big news Friday is that Oliveira weighed in at 155.5 pounds, a half-pound over the 155-weight class limit. As such, he was stripped of his lightweight championship. It’s the first time in UFC history that a defending champ missed weight ahead of a title bout.
Gaethje, who will be fighting in his home state of Arizona, was the interim title holder in 2020 before falling to Khabib Nurmagomedov. He gets a chance to claim the strap if he can dump Oliveira.
Gaethje won a unanimous-decision fight at UFC 268 after the loss to Khabib, and is now the No. 1 contender in the weight class. The decision was his first in eight fights at the UFC level, with six fights decided by KO/TKO (4-2), and the submission loss to Khabib. Just one of Oliveira’s 17 UFC fights have ended up going the distance, so don’t expect the judges to get involved.
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UFC 274 Oliveira vs. Gaethje odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:30 a.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Oliveira -155 (bet $155 to win $100) | Gaethje +120 (bet $100 to win $120)
- Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +280 | No -450)
[tipico]
UFC 274 Oliveira vs. Gaethje picks and predictions
Records: Oliveira (32-8-0) | Gaethje (23-3-0)
Fight result (2-way line or money line)
Oliveira (-155) is going to head into this fight with a little bit of a chip on his shoulder after the embarrassment of missing weight and being stripped of the title. But he was going to lose the title anyway. GAETHJE (+120) is going to claim victory in this one.
While Gaethje does have a four-inch reach disadvantage, he has a tremendous 7.50-to-3.44 significant strikes landed per minute advantage. He is going to want to turn this into a brawl.
As long as Gaethje can keep this fight upright, as Oliveira is a beast on the mat, I think Gaethje can bloody and beat Oliveira with fists.
Over/Under (O/U)
No (-450): Fight to the distance is way too expensive, even though there is next to no chance it happens. Risking four-and-a-half times your potential return is just not wise.
Instead, take a chance on GAETHJE BY TKO/KO (+180) for an opportunity to nearly double up. In addition, play a three-round block on GAETHJE IN ROUND 3 (+1300), GAETHJE IN ROUND 4 (+2000) and GAETHJE IN ROUND 5 (+2500). Yes, even if he wins in Rounds 3-5, you’ll lose two of the ends, but you’ll be very far ahead regardless.
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