In a welterweight bout, Donald Cerrone and Niko Price lock horns at UFC on ESPN+ 36 Saturday at the UFC’s APEX Facility in Las Vegas. The prelims kick off at 5 p.m. ET on ESPN+, followed by the main card set for 8 p.m. ET.
The veteran Cerrone (36-15) heads into this one on a four-bout losing skid, the longest of his career. However, “Cowboy” has fallen to Anthony Pettis, Conor McGregor, Justin Gaethje and Tony Ferguson, a who’s who of MMA. There is no shame in losses to each of those men. His loss to Pettis at UFC 249 was a unanimous decision, with his previous three setbacks each KO/TKOs. He does lead 46.29 to 38.27 in significant strike accuracy percentage, and he also holds edges of 1.23 to 1.08 in takedown average and 35.29 to 23.81 in takedown accuracy percentage.
Price (14-4) is coming off a TKO – doctor’s stoppage against Vicente Luque on the UFC 249 card, falling in the third round on May 9. He has alternated wins and losses in each of his past six, and all three of the losses are by way of KO/TKO. His resume isn’t nearly as impressive as Cowboy’s, with his most impressive win in 11 fights at the UFC level a win over James Vick on Oct. 12, 2019. Cerrone is a bit of a wounded animal, but he is still dangerous and the most impressive fighter Price will have seen in his career.
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Donald Cerrone vs. Niko Price betting odds
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:45 a.m. ET.
Backing the veteran CERRONE (+125) straight up on the 2-way line is a nice value. Price (-152) is an impressive fighter, but Cowboy isn’t taking a fifth straight loss. While I like Cerrone to win, this one won’t be easy, and it will not be quick. Go OVER 1.5 ROUNDS (-112), although it won’t be much longer than that.
In addition, roll the dice on CERRONE BY KO/TKO, DQ OR SUBMISSION (+260), as you can nearly triple up. And, as I’ve mentioned many times in the past, take the fight to end in ROUND 2 (+310) and ROUND 3 (+550) for a solid value. If the fight ends in either of those rounds you’ll finish well ahead.
If you don’t want to specify a winner, but simply a finish, go with KO/TKO/DQ (-154), and it doesn’t matter who comes away with the knockout, as long as that’s the method of victory by either of the combatants.
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