Tag: Cavaliers Warriors odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

The Cleveland Cavaliers (22-17) roll into the Chase Center Sunday to play the Golden State Warriors (29-9) in Klay Thompson‘s first game back since the 2019 NBA Finals after being sidelined with multiple leg injuries. Tip-off is set for 8:30 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Cavaliers vs. Warriors odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Cleveland has alternated between winning and losing over the past four games with the latest being a 114-101 victory at the Portland Trail Blazers Friday, easily covering as 6-point road favorites.

In the last 14 days, the Cavs are 3-4 straight-up (SU), 2-4-1 ATS and 4-3 O/U with the 12th-best non-garbage time net rating at plus-4.1 points per 100 possessions, according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG).

Golden State has lost back-to-back road games at the Dallas Mavericks 99-82 Wednesday and down several starters at the New Orleans Pelicans 101-96 Thursday.

Over the past two weeks, the Warriors are 2-3 SU, 1-4 ATS and 2-3 O/U with the 17th-ranked non-garbage time net rating at minus-1.9 points per 100 possessions, per CTG.

Golden State has won six straight regular-season meetings with Cleveland (5-1 ATS), which includes a 104-89 beatdown earlier this season as 9.5-point road favorites.

Cavaliers at Warriors odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:10 p.m. ET.

• Money line: Cavaliers +290 (bet $100 to win $290) | Warriors -380 (bet $380 to win $100)
• Against the spread (ATS): Cavaliers +8.5 (-108) | Warriors -8.5 (-112)
• Over/Under (O/U): 216.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)

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Cavaliers at Warriors key injuries

Cavaliers

• SG Isaac Okoro (elbow) out

Warriors

• C James Wiseman (knee) out

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Cavaliers at Warriors odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Warriors 109, Cavaliers 105

Money line

PASS with a heavy “lean” towards the Cavaliers (+290) because I like Cleveland plus the points, and I really like the fat money line payout.

However, with the return of Klay, we’ll likely see the Warriors (-380) roll past opponents shortly. Obviously, even before Klay’s comeback, Golden State has played like one of the best teams in the NBA.

In fact, the Warriors have the best winning percentage (9-3 SU) and non-garbage time efficiency differential (plus-9.8 points per 100 possessions) versus teams in the top-10 of adjusted net rating (CTG).

Against the spread

BET 1 unit on the CAVALIERS +8.5 (-108) because the oddsmakers are laying a trap for all the Warriors -8.5 (-112) bettors.

According to Pregame.com, Golden State was a 10-point favorite on the look-ahead line, and this number has been steamed down even though more than 85% of the action is on the Warriors. This type of reverse line movement is suspicious, to say the least.

Also, oddsmakers are projecting a low-scoring game as the total is only 216.5. You’d think with the return of Klay that this total would be set somewhere in the low 220s. If sportsbooks are predicting fewer points then it’s hard not taking an 8.5-point underdog in this spot.

Furthermore, I don’t put much stock into Golden State’s double-digit victory over Cleveland earlier this season because the Cavs were missing bigs Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley.

Cleveland’s crazy length and interior size allow it to extend the perimeter defense because the Cavs guards know it has awesome rim protection behind them. Allen and Mobley being active for this Cavaliers-Warriors meeting should greatly improve Cleveland’s defense.

For example, the Cavs’ defensive effective field goal percentage is 3.3% better with Mobley on the floor and the Cavs allow 3.0 fewer points per 100 possessions when Allen is out there (CTG).

BET the CAVALIERS +8.5 (-108).

Over/Under

“LEAN” to the UNDER 216.5 (-112) for a half-unit because the Warriors are 6-12-2 O/U as a home favorite, the Cavs are 6-9 O/U as a road underdog, both teams play more to the Under in non-conference games and since there are Under-friendly betting splits.

According to Pregame.com, this is a Pros vs. Joe’s game with more money being on the Under but more action coming in on the Over. Typically, in sports betting, it’s profitable to follow the money when it’s counter to the public.

The reasons I only “LEAN” to the UNDER 216.5 (-112) are that Cleveland’s spread is my favorite wager in this game, and both teams shoot it really well.

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