Tag: Carolina Panthers

Matt Rhule has long odds to win NFL coach of the year

Matt Rhule has long odds to win NFL coach of the year

Panthers coach Matt Rhule comes into the NFL as one of the highest-paid coaches, making even more than Andy Reid per year. He’s going to have to earn his money. Rhule has inherited one of the league’s weakest rosters and its most difficult schedule this year according to some projections.

The traditional goals for teams like winning the Super Bowl or division or even making the playoffs will likely be out of reach for Carolina this year, no matter how good Rhule is at his job.

The challenges ahead are laid clear in Rhule’s odds to win the Coach of the Year award. According to BetMGM, Rhule is at +4000, or 40/1. That ties him for the fourth-worst odds in the NFL.

Here’s where all 32 coaches stand.

Bill Belichick (Patriots): +1000

Bruce Arians (Buccaneers): +1400

Mike McCarthy (Cowboys): +1400

Kyle Shanahan (49ers): +1600

Frank Reich (Colts): +2000

Sean McDermott (Bills): +2000

Mike Vrabel (Titans): +2000

Andy Reid (Chiefs): +2000

John Harbaugh (Ravens): +2000

Sean Payton (Saints): +2200

Sean McVay (Rams): +2200

Pete Carroll (Seahawks): +2500

Mike Tomlin (Steelers): +2500

Zac Taylor (Bengals): +2500

Vic Fangio (Broncos): +2500

Doug Pederson (Eagles): +2800

Ron Rivera (Redskins): +2800

Anthony Lynn (Chargers): +2800

Matt LaFleur (Packers): +3000

Mike Zimmer (Vikings): +3000

Dan Quinn (Falcons): +3000

Matt Rhule (Panthers): +4000

Matt Nagy (Bears): +4000

Adam Gase (Jets): +4000

Joe Judge (Giants): +4000

Jon Gruden (Raiders): +4000

Matt Patricia (Lions): +5000

Bill O’Brien (Texans): +5000

Doug Marrone (Jaguars): +5000

Realistically, if Rhule is going to have any chance to win the award the Panthers will have to win 10 games and earn a wild card spot. We’re projecting a 6-10 season, but some have them being as bad as 3-13.

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Anonymous GM claims ‘the decline is evident’ with Cam Newton

Newton’s supposed decline is 100% related to his shoulder and foot injuries and anyone who doesn’t understand that hasn’t been paying attention.

Cam Newton remains a free agent, now nine weeks removed from getting cut by the Panthers. There are many reasons why, including the relatively late timing of his release.

What really matters above all else is how Newton’s game is perceived by the people making the decisions for NFL teams. It sounds like some have a misguided idea about where Cam is and what he’s capable of at this point in his career. For example, there’s this anonymous GM quote that’s making the rounds, courtesy of Albert Breer at Sports Illustrated.

“Not saying he can’t bounce back,” one general manager said. “But the decline is evident.”

We believe in putting your name on your work and in general fans shouldn’t pay too much attention to anonymous quotes about anyone.

However – to correct the record, Newton’s supposed decline is 100% related to his shoulder and foot injuries and anyone who doesn’t understand that hasn’t been paying attention.

If you rewind the clock back to before Newton’s shoulder took that devastating hit from T.J. Watt in Week 10 of 2018, you’ll see an immensely talented quarterback playing at the height of his powers and leading his team to wins against quality competition.

The Panthers entered that fateful matchup with Pittsburgh on a three-game winning streak. They had just dropped 42 points on the Buccaneers, a week after posting 36 on the Ravens – who came in with the NFL’s top-ranked defense – and that was after Newton led a 17-point fourth quarter comeback against the reigning Super Bowl champion Eagles. This was not ancient history – it was only a couple of seasons ago.

Morover, Newton’s health was never a question before these injuries. In fact, he had a reputation for being rather durable. Up until he was shut down late in 2018 Newton had only missed four games in his entire career, one of them due to a serious car accident.

The point is that Newton’s shoulder has had plenty of time to heal, as has the misdiagnosed Lisfranc that kept him on the sidelines for most of 2019. Also, the last time Newton was truly healthy he was performing at a level rarely achieved in this sport.

Bottom line, some team is going to get a very good quarterback and make the other 31 look foolish.

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Watch: Panthers second-round pick Jeremy Chinn shows off agility, ball skills

Panthers second-round pick Jeremy Chinn shows off agility, ball skills in video.

Jeremy Chinn is going to be something special once he gets adjusted to life in the NFL. The Panthers traded up for him at the end of the second round of the 2020 draft and he figures to fill a big role for Carolina’s defense in the future, whatever position he winds up playing.

You can only learn so much from a short video, but in this clip shared by the team’s Twitter account you can see Chinn’s agility as well as his ball skills at the end. Watch.

Chinn will need those quick steps and ability to change of direction if he’s going to keep up with pro receivers.

 

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Muhsin Muhammad calls Jeremy Chinn ‘a helluva pick’ by Panthers

Former Panthers wide receiver Muhsin Muhammad likes what the team did in the early rounds of the 2020 NFL draft.

Former Panthers wide receiver Muhsin Muhammad likes what the team did in the early rounds of the 2020 NFL draft.

In response to a question by Joe Person at the Athletic, Muhammad chose first-round pick Derrick Brown and second-rounder Jeremy Chinn as the two pieces he would build around outside of star running back Christian McCaffrey. Here’s what Muhammad said.

“Derrick Brown. I would say Brown, obviously anchoring the D-line. They definitely want to build around him. Jeremy Chinn. Watching him play, his length, his aggressive, laser, seek-and-destroy kind of mentality. He’s fast. He’s an athlete, smart kid. I like him at safety. I like him at the rover linebacker. His cover skills, his closing skills — I like all of it. I thought it was a helluva pick.”

For what it’s worth, we agree and Chinn was our favorite pick of the draft.

Aside from superb athletic testing, the most exciting part about Chinn’s game is his versatility. During his time at Southern Illinois, he put in time at safety, linebacker, nickel corner and outside corner.

We believe his best path towards playing time as a rookie is to take over Eric Reid’s former spot as the starting strong safety. To do that, he’ll likely have to beat out Juston Burris, who was one of the team’s few defensive free agent signings this offseason.

The Panthers also need someone to replace Javien Elliott at nickel. Chinn might be a bit raw but matching his size and athleticism against slot receivers is a tantalyzing proposition.

As Muhammad mentioned, linebacker is another possibility. The team’s depth here took a huge hit due to Luke Kuechly’s retirement. Especially if Tahir Whitehead continues to struggle in coverage, there may be an opportunity for snaps there, as well.

Deciding where Chinn fits best is a good problem for defensive coordinator Phil Snow to have.

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What are the Panthers’ chances of making the 2020 playoffs?

Unless they tank or suffer a lot of serious injuries, these Panthers will be bad but not Trevor Lawrence bad.

Fairweather Panthers fans will be tested this season. After finishing 5-11 last year and then seeing so many important players either retire, sign elsewhere in free agency or get cut, the 2020 season looks as daunting as any in recent memory for this franchise.

What are their chances of making the playoffs this year? Not great.

ESPN ran 20,000 simulations for this upcoming season using their Football Power Index (FPI) prediction model. Things look good for the Chiefs, who have a 21% chance of repeating as Super Bowl champions according to their projections.

As for Carolina, the simulations had them winning an average of just 5.6 games and making the playoffs just 7% of the time. The only teams with worse odds were Washington (6%) and Jacksonville (4%). Finishing with the third-worst record in the league would be hard to swallow. It would also not low enough to land them the No. 1 overall pick in next year’s draft and a chance to pick a new franchise quarterback.

Unless they tank or suffer a lot of serious injuries, these Panthers will be bad but not Trevor Lawrence bad.

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Watch: College highlights for Panthers undrafted OL Branden Bowen

Bowen (6-foot-7, 315 pounds) also has experience at right guard, which should help his chances of making the roster.

The Panthers offensive line has some serious question marks on the interior. They are deeper at tackle than most people think, though. For one, Taylor Moton is a criminally underrated right tackle. Assuming he and left tackle Russell Okung stay healthy, it will provide some stability Carolina’s starting five hasn’t had in years.

There are also some backups with potential further down the depth chart. That includes 2019 second-round pick Greg Little and Ohio State’s Branden Bowen, who was one of the team’s 17 undrafed free agent signings this year.

Let’s get to know Bowen’s game better on film. (Bowen is No. 76, playing right tackle).

Bowen vs. Clemson

Bowen vs. Maryland

Bowen vs. Florida Atlantic

Bowen (6-foot-7, 315 pounds) also has experience at right guard, which should help his chances of making the roster.

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Cam Newton’s former teammate says Panthers mismanaged his injuries for years

“It goes back to his shoulder surgery [in 2018],” says former Panthers fullback Mike Tolbert.

Cam Newton’s breakup with the Carolina Panthers wasn’t especially clean. New head coach Matt Rhule was adamant that he was looking forward to working with the 2015 MVP during the NFL combine. Two months later, the 31-year-old was cut loose and with his spotty health record over the last two years and a global pandemic preventing teams from getting to meet with him in person, he remains a free agent.

In a survey of former Panthers players, The Athletic’s Joe Person asked Mike Tolbert, who played with Newton in Carolina from 2012 to 2016, if the organization did Cam dirty by waiting so long to release him. Tolbert took the question and ran with it…

Via The Athletic:

“They’ve been doing him wrong timing-wise for the past two or three years, if you ask me. It goes back to his shoulder surgery. Everyone knew his shoulder was messed up in the middle of the year two years ago. But they wait until offseason gets ready to start to have shoulder surgery. Makes no sense. Timing’s off. As soon as he got hurt (last) preseason against the Patriots, they were saying, “Oh, he’s got a high ankle sprain.” I looked at it on film carefully. It’s not a high ankle sprain, you could tell that 10 minutes after the play. You knew it’s a mid-foot sprain, Lisfranc, something like that. But you wait ‘til December for him to beg you to have surgery. He shouldn’t have been out there Week 1 and 2. He shouldn’t have been out there probably ‘til Week 4 or 5, at minimum.”

Newton suffered the Lisfranc injury that would eventually end his 2019 season during a meaningless preseason game in August. The Panthers denied that it was anything to worry about and a few weeks later, Cam’s season — and, as we’d later find out, his Panthers career — was over.

It was clear in those two regular season games that Newton did play that something was wrong with him. Nobody was quite sure if those struggles were the product of the shoulder injury he had suffered in 2018, which Tolbert references in his answer, or the foot injury. When I broke down every throw he made during his shortened 2019 season, it became evident that it was the former.

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Whatever the case may be, Newton is no longer a member of the Panthers, leaving a monstrous leadership void in the locker room. So what will that locker room look like now that No. 1 is no longer in the building? Tolbert shared his thoughts on that, as well:

“Boring, like quarantine,” Tolbert said. “Cam brought the excitement, man. To the locker room, to the community, to the team. Every team out there has a personality. And right now I don’t see anybody that can fill that void on this Panthers team, other than maybe Curtis Samuel. But he’s not as out there like that.”

Wide receiver Curis Samuel is next in line, according to Tolbert. The bad news: The Panthers seem to be mismanaging his career, too.

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Mike Tolbert suggests Panthers mismanaged Cam Newton’s injuries

Some would argue that Carolina’s mistakes concerning Newton began earlier than that, though.

A lot of Carolina Panthers fans are still upset about the way the team treated Cam Newton leading up to releasing him two months ago.

While there’s something to be said for starting over fresh, it was a poor football decision made worse by bad optics. From team owner David Tepper questioning Newton’s health to Matt Rhule saying he was “unbelievably excited” to work with Cam, it’s clear not everyone was on the same page and the whole thing could have been handled a lot better.

Some would argue that Carolina’s mistakes concerning Newton began earlier than that, though.

Here’s what former Panthers fullback Mike Tolbert told the Athletic in an interview about Newton and why he’s still a free agent. Tolbert said the team did him wrong by releasing him so late and also suggested they mismanaged his injuries.

“. . . They’ve been doing him wrong timing-wise for the past two or three years, if you ask me. It goes back to his shoulder surgery. Everyone knew his shoulder was messed up in the middle of the year two years ago. But they wait until offseason gets ready to start to have shoulder surgery. Makes no sense. Timing’s off. As soon as he got hurt (last) preseason against the Patriots, they were saying, “Oh, he’s got a high ankle sprain.” I looked at it on film carefully. It’s not a high ankle sprain, you could tell that 10 minutes after the play. You knew it’s a mid-foot sprain, Lisfranc, something like that. But you wait ‘til December for him to beg you to have surgery. He shouldn’t have been out there Week 1 and 2. He shouldn’t have been out there probably ‘til Week 4 or 5, at minimum.”

Right on the money.

In fact, this mismanagement of Newton’s injuries goes back even further. Remember, he first hurt his throwing shoulder late in the 2016 season after tackling a defender to prevent a pick-six. The Panthers had no realistic chance of making the playoffs and Newton should have been shut down for the year right then. Ron Rivera kept on playing him and delayed a necessary shoulder surgery.

Hopefully wherever Newton signs (and he will sign somewhere) that team does a better job of handling his health and appreciates what they’re getting.

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How concerned should the Panthers be about dropped passes in 2020?

According to Pro Football Reference, the Panthers dropped 33 passes last season, the fifth-most in the NFL.

The Carolina Panthers are in for a tough time in 2020. Their roster is one of the weakest in the league, so even if they benefit from brilliant coaching by Matt Rhule and the rest of his staff it’s extremely unlikely they’ll have a winning record or compete for a playoff spot.

On the bright side, there are some solid playmakers at the offensive skill positions. While the situation at tight end is thin, they’re relatively loaded at wide receiver and running back. Pro Football Focus has Carolina’s receiver group ranked No. 8 in the league.

While this is the strongest part of the roster, they’re far from perfect. One area they’ll need to work on is drops, which were a significant problem in 2019. According to Pro Football Reference, the Panthers dropped 33 passes last season, the fifth-most in the NFL.

Here’s how they broke down.

WR Jarius Wright: eight (13.8% drop rate)

WR Curtis Samuel: seven (6.7% drop rate)

RB Christian McCaffrey: seven (4.9% drop rate)

WR D.J. Moore: four (3% drop rate)

TE Greg Olsen: three (3.7% drop rate)

TE Ian Thomas: three (10% drop rate)

RB Reggie Bonnafon: one (11.1% drop rate)

Not ideal. We’re predicting an improvement this year, though.

First, the worst offender last year was obviously Wright, who previously had been a reliable target on third down if nothing else. His 2020 option was declined so they won’t have his drop rate holding them back.

There’s also a lot of variance with this stat, so even if Wright was still around it wouldn’t be unreasonable to expect the numbers to bounce back in the team’s favor this coming season.

For example, seven drops for McCaffrey was a lot but the previous year he only had one, per Pro Football Reference. PFF actually counted zero on 124 targets. Samuel should also benefit from the law of averages. He only dropped two passes during the 2018 season – a much more respectable 3.1% drop rate.

The one we’re most concerned about is Thomas, who may see his role grow more than any other starter on offense this season. Drops have been an issue for him since coming into the league – he dropped three balls in 2018 on 49 targets, a relatively high 6.1%. Thomas has flashed after the catch and has the athleticism to become a legitimate weapon, but until he cleans up this part of his game it will be difficult for him to reach his potential.

Overall expect fewer drops, especially if Thomas can cut his down.

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Only 1 Panther makes CBS Sports’ Top 100 NFL Players list

The Panthers have plenty of youth and athleticism on their roster right now. Starpower is one thing they’re pretty short on, though.

The Panthers have plenty of youth and athleticism on their roster right now. Starpower is one thing they’re pretty short on, though.

Last year, there were about a dozen high-profile players on the team, including a No. 1 overall pick and former MVP, an All-Pro, future hall of fame linebacker and a loaded, veteran-heavy defensive line. Five months later, this franchise has undergone a dramatic makeover and most of the big names have moved on in one way or another.

The challenges ahead in 2020 are often illustrated by the relatively few number of current Carolina players we see in league-wide rankings.

For example, Pete Prisco recently released his annual ranking of the top 100 players in the NFL. Running back Christian McCaffrey came in at No. 5 on his list but he was the only Panther on it. Here’s Prisco on No. 22:

“It’s tough for me to put a back up this high, but his ability to catch the football better than all the others makes him a dual-threat player, going over 1,000 in both rushing and receiving yards.”

While we have some issues with Prisco’s list, the top of it seems pretty appropriate.

Patrick Mahomes took the No. 1 spot as he should, followed by Aaron Donald, Russell Wilson and Michael Thomas.

It is a bit ambitious placing any running back so high (especially ahead of Lamar Jackson) but McCaffrey is a bit of a unicorn. There have been other great pass-catching backs before, but nobody has quite thrived at it the way he has. McCaffrey’s route running and abilities after the catch make him a unique threat for his position. We are very interested to see what offensive coordinator Joe Brady has planned for him.

For what it’s worth, wide receiver D.J. Moore was on Prisco’s rather extensive just-missed list. We’re expecting big things from him and Brian Burns this year.

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