The St. Louis Cardinals (25-24) are in the Steel City Saturday to face the Pittsburgh Pirates (15-37) for the final game of a five-game series at PNC Park. The first pitch is scheduled for 4:05 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze the Cardinals-Pirates MLB betting odds and lines, with picks and best bets.
Series: St. Louis leads 3-1.
Cardinals at Pirates: Projected starting pitchers
RHP Jack Flaherty vs. RHP Joe Musgrove
Flaherty: 3-2 with a 5.52 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 10.1 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9 in 29 1/3 IP over 7 starts.
- Last start (Sept. 15): Loss, 18-3, with 3 IP, 8 H, 9 ER, 6 K and 2 BB at the Milwaukee Brewers.
- Career vs. Pirates: 5-1 with a 1.94 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 47 K and 11 BB in 51 IP over 8 starts.
- Career in PNC Park: 3-1 with a 1.44 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 23 K and 8 BB in 25 IP over 4 starts
Musgrove: 0-5 with a 5.74 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, 11.5 K/9 and 4.7 BB/9 in 26 2/3 IP over 6 starts.
- Last start (Sept. 15): Loss, 4-1, with 5 IP, 6 H, 4 ER, 8 K and 1 BB at the Cincinnati Reds.
- Career vs. Cardinals: 1-7 with a 6.75 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 47 K and 18 BB in 42 2/3 IP over 8 starts.
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Cardinals at Pirates: Key injuries
(Get the latest injury news here.)
Cardinals
- OF Dexter Fowler (personal) out
- RP Giovanni Gallegos (groin) out
- C Yadier Molina (wrist) questionable
Pirates
- RP Keone Kela (forearm) out
- RP Nick Burdi (elbow) out
- OF Anthony Alford (elbow) out
Also see: BaseballHQ Fantasy Baseball
Cardinals at Pirates: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:20 a.m. ET.
Prediction
Cardinals 5, Pirates 3
Money line (ML)
We are getting a little value on the Cardinals (-162) because Flaherty is having a rough season; however, it’s a bit of a get right game for him. He hasn’t completed more than five frames since a seven-inning outing in his last start against the Pirates (+145).
Flaherty’s career numbers against the Pirates and in PNC Park are astounding and the current Pittsburgh lineup slashes only .227/.279/.320.
St. Louis is 15-5 in the last 20 head-to-head meetings and 14-3 in the last 17 games in Pittsburgh. The implied win probability of the Cardinals (-162) is 62% and that lines up with my analysis.
I LEAN CARDINALS (-162) only because of the heavy vig.
Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
I am going to PASS ON THE RUN LINE because we aren’t getting plus-money to bet the Cardinals (-1.5, +100). The starting pitching matchup greatly favors St. Louis but Pittsburgh has the second-best cover percentage in division games (66%).
The Cardinals and Pirates have ended with a single run margin in four of their last 10 games. St. Louis needed a late-inning rally to get past Pittsburgh in the previous two games.
Over/Under (O/U)
I don’t generally play totals but there are some trendy reasons to like OVER 7.5 (-110). The Pirates have an Over/Under record of 18-14-3 in division games and the Cardinals are 5-2 RL as an away favorite.
The Over is 11-4-1 in the last 16 meetings in Pittsburgh and 4-0-1 in the Pirates’ last five during Game 5 of a series.
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