Tag: Cardinals Brewers odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Milwaukee Brewers (4-4) host the St. Louis Cardinals (4-2) Saturday at American Family Field for the third game of their four-game series. First pitch is set for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Cardinals vs. Brewers odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: 1-1

St. Louis evened the series Friday by crushing Milwaukee 10-1 and the Cardinals’ lineup beat up Brewers RHP Freddy Peralta early. Peralta surrendered 6 ER in just 3 IP on 7 H and 2 BB with 4 K. Cardinals 3B Nolan Arenado lead the way with a 2-for-3 game with 1 HR, 2 BB and 3 RBIs.

Cardinals at Brewers: Projected starters

LHP Steven Matz vs. RHP Adrian Houser

Matz (0-1, 21.00 ERA) took a loss in his season debut Sunday against the Pittsburgh Pirates 9-4. He allowed 7 ER on 9 H and 1 BB with 5 K in 3 IP.

  • vs. Brewers on the current roster: 3.59 FIP with a .266 batting average (BA), .315 wOBA, .381 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 18.9 K% and 86.6 mph exit velocity (EV) in 74 plate appearances (PA).

Houser (0-1, 4.91 ERA) lost at the Baltimore Orioles Monday 2-0 with 3 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 3 BB and 3 K.

  • 2021 vs. Cardinals: 3-0 with a 0.36 ERA (25 IP, 1 ER), 1.00 WHIP and 5.0 K/9 over four starts.
  • vs. Cardinals on the current roster: 3.67 FIP with a .238 BA, .288 wOBA, .391 xSLG, 17.6 K% and 87.8 mph EV in 136 PA.

Cardinals at Brewers odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:14 p.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Cardinals +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Brewers -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Cardinals -1.5 (+160) | Brewers +1.5 (-200)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: +100 | U: -125)

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Cardinals at Brewers picks and predictions

Prediction

Cardinals 5, Brewers 2

Money line

BET the CARDINALS (+100) for 1 unit because there’s reverse line movement headed towards St. Louis, the Brewers struggle versus lefty pitching and April is Houser’s worst month.

Nearly 70% of the money is on the Brewers according to pregame.com, but they’ve gone from a -125 ML favorite on the opener down to the current number. It’s a red flag whenever the sportsbooks make the more popular side cheaper and my instinct is to get on the same side as the House.

The market’s preference of Milwaukee here makes sense because Houser pitched lights out versus St. Louis in 2021 and the Brew Crew are the reigning NL Central champions.

However, Milwaukee’s lineup can’t hit left-handed pitching. Since the beginning of last season, the Brewers are 26th in wRC+ and 24th in wOBA against lefty pitching, according to Fangraphs.

BET the CARDINALS (+100).

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Run line/Against the spread

PASS with a “lean” towards the Cardinals -1.5 (+160) since it’s a chunk payout and six of the last seven Cardinals-Brewers meetings have been decided by more than 1 run.

But, Houser did pitch well versus St. Louis last season and Milwaukee’s lineup is above-average on paper so the Brew Crew can sneak in the backdoor for an RL cover.

Over/Under

LEAN UNDER 8.5 (-125) since the oddsmakers are trying to steer bettors away from the Over but heavily juicing the Under.

Nearly 90% of the money is on the Under while a slight majority of the bets placed are on the Over. Typically, the cash column of betting splits represents professional money so the UNDER 8.5 (-125) is the sharper bet. However, my favorite wager in this game is St. Louis’s ML.

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St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The St. Louis Cardinals (3-2) meet the Milwaukee Brewers (4-3) Friday in the second of their 4-game set at American Family Field. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Cardinals vs. Brewers odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Milwaukee won Thursday’s first game of the series 5-1, thanks to Brewers SP Brandon Woodruff‘s 5 IP with 0 ER and C Omar Narvaez’s 2-for-4 night with a home run, double and 2 RBI.

St. Louis beat Milwaukee in last year’s regular-season series 11-8 and the Cardinals had a plus-18 run differential over the Brew Crew in those games. Also, Milwaukee was 3-7 at home versus St. Louis in 2021.

Cardinals at Brewers: Projected starters

St. Louis RHP Miles Mikolas vs. Milwaukee RHP Freddy Peralta 

Mikolas (0-0, 4.91 ERA) had a no-decision Saturday in St. Louis’s 6-2 win at home over the Pittsburgh Pirates. He went 3 2/3 IP, allowing 2 ER on 6 H and 2 BB with 1 K.

  • 2021 vs. Brewers: 1-1 with a 3.55 ERA (12 2/3 IP, 5 ER), 11 H, 1 BB and 10 K in 2 starts.
  • vs. Brewers on the current roster: 2.92 FIP with a .235 batting average (BA), .274 wOBA, .425 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 21.3 K% and 86.6 mph exit velocity (EV) in 89 plate appearances (PA).

Peralta (0-0, 6.75 ERA) had a no-decision in Milwaukee’s 5-4 comeback victory Sunday over the Cubs in Chicago. In 4 IP, he gave up 3 ER on 3 H and 4 BB with 6 K.

  • 2021 vs. Cardinals: 0-2 with a 5.29 ERA (17 IP, 10 ER), 16 H, 4 BB and 23 K in 4 starts.
  • vs. Cardinals on the current roster: 5.05 FIP with a .274 BA, .368 wOBA, .430 xSLG, 26.6 K% and 87.2 mph EV in 128 PA.

Cardinals at Brewers odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:01 p.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Cardinals +130 (bet $100 to win $130) | Brewers -160 (bet $160 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Cardinals +1.5 (-160) | Brewers -1.5 (+130)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)

Exclusive USA TODAY Network offer: Deposit $10 or more, get $200 in instant bet credits at Tipico Sportsbook! New customer offer in CO and NJ. 21+, see Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. Place your legal, online sports bets at Tipico. Let’s make this interesting. Bet now!

Cardinals at Brewers picks and predictions

Prediction

Cardinals 6, Brewers 3

Money line

BET the CARDINALS (+130) because they are better in two of the most important phases of the game (hitting and bullpen pitching) and St. Louis owns Peralta.

Most casual fans view the Brewers (-160) as a pitching powerhouse, which is true of their starting rotation. But Milwaukee’s bullpen struggled significantly down the stretch in 2021.

Furthermore, the Brew Crew’s lineup was one of the most disappointing in the NL last season and is off to another slow start this year. While the Cardinals hitters are producing out the gate and are tied for second in wRC+.

I agree with Milwaukee being slightly favored but the Brewers (-160) have a 61.5% implied win probability and they do not win this game 60% of the time.

TAKE the CARDINALS (+130).

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Run line/Against the spread

PASS with a heavy “lean” towards the Cardinals +1.5 (-160) because I’d love some insurance for our St. Louis ML wager and the Brewers -1.5 (+130) are just 31-44 RL since the beginning of last season.

But only 3 of the 19 Cardinals-Brewers meetings last season were decided by 1 run and St. Louis’s RL is just a little out of my price range.

Over/Under

Slight LEAN to the OVER 8.5 (-108) because of Peralta’s aforementioned struggles versus the Cardinals, the weather forecast is predicting 12.5 mph winds blowing out to left-center field and the total has been increased due to a sharp line move. 

However, St. Louis’s ML is by far my favorite bet in this game hence the LEAN OVER 8.5 (-108).

Bet legally online with a trusted partner: Tipico Sportsbook, Sportsbook Wire’s official sportsbook partner in CO, NJ and soon IA. Bet now!

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Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).

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St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s Cardinals at Brewers odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The St. Louis Cardinals (3-1) and Milwaukee Brewers (2-3) meet Thursday to open a four-game series at American Family Field. First pitch is slated for 5:14 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Cardinals at Brewers odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Thursday’s game marks the first this season between St. Louis and Milwaukee. The Cardinals won 11-of-19 meetings last season.

The Cardinals have played just once since Sunday. They had games postponed against Pittsburgh Monday and Kansas City Wednesday.

The Brewers bested St. Louis to win the NL Central flag by 5 games last season. Milwaukee heads into this series off back-to-back wins in Baltimore.

Cardinals at Brewers: Projected starters

RHP Adam Wainwright vs. RHP Brandon Woodruff

Wainwright (1-0, 0.00 ERA) is making his second start. He has a 0.83 WHIP, 0.0 BB/9 and 9.0 K/9 through 6 IP.

  • Tossed 6 shutout frames against the Pittsburgh Pirates in his season debut April 7.
  • Logged a 3.05 ERA in 206 1/3 IP last season.
  • Milwaukee batters own an aggregate .771 OPS against him.

Woodruff (0-1, 17.18 ERA) is tabbed for his second start. He has a 2.45 WHIP, 7.4 BB/9 and 4.9 K/9 through 3 2/3 IP.

  • Opened the season Saturday at Wrigley and was touched up for 7 runs in 3 2/3 IP.
  • Has held St. Louis bats to an aggregate .606 OPS.

Cardinals at Brewers odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:30 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Cardinals +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Brewers -145 (bet $145 to win $100)
  • Against the spread (ATS): Cardinals +1.5 (-175) | Brewers -1.5 (+140)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -130 | U: +105)

Exclusive USA TODAY Network offer: Deposit $10 or more, get $200 in instant bet credits at Tipico Sportsbook! New customer offer in CO and NJ. 21+, see Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. Place your legal, online sports bets at Tipico. Let’s make this interesting. Bet now!

Cardinals at Brewers prediction and picks

Prediction

Brewers 5, Cardinals 3

Money line

Wainwright is a veteran pitcher who has maintained stark home/road splits over his career. A year ago, the Redbirds righty registered a 2.74 ERA at home and a 3.58 mark on the road. And the Brewers have hit him well in the past.

With the Cardinals’ stutter-start-and-stop schedule of late, and Milwaukee’s offense due some positive regression, the Brewers are the value play here. Consider a line watch and a play on Milwaukee at -140 or better.

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Run line/Against the spread

We’re not interested in paying -175 for the Cards to have a run of insurance. The better value at listed prices is MILWAUKEE -1.5 (+140).

Over/Under

PASS. Cross signals not worth forcing into harder-to-beat 25-cent house edge.

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If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).

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St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Thursday’s St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The streaking St. Louis Cardinals (82-69) attempt to complete a four-game road sweep of the Milwaukee Brewers (91-61) Thursday afternoon. First pitch is at 2:10 p.m. ET at American Family Field. Let’s analyze the lines around the Cardinals vs. Brewers odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Cardinals RHP Adam Wainwright (16-7, 2.89 ERA) makes his 31st start. He has a 1.03 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 7.7 K/9 through 196 1/3 IP.

  • His 16 wins are already more than he has had in a season since winning 20 games in 2014.
  • He has won five straight decisions and seven of his last eight. The Cardinals won his last six starts and 11 of his last 12.

Brewers RHP Adrian Houser (9-6, 3.43 ERA) makes his 25th start and 27th appearance. He has a 1.29 WHIP, 4.1 BB/9 and 6.9 K/9 through 131 1/3 IP.

  • He has faced the Cardinals twice this season and is 2-0 without an earned run allowed through 14 innings. He shut the Cardinals out Sept. 4 at home in a complete-game three-hitter.
  • The Brewers won Houser’s last outing, but he allowed 5 runs (4 earned) on 7 hits and 3 walks across 4 innings.

Cardinals at Brewers odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 11:40 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Cardinals -103 (bet $103 to win $100) | Brewers -117 (bet $117 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Cardinals -1.5 (+160) | Brewers +1.5 (-200)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: +100 | U: -125)

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Prediction

Cardinals 4, Brewers 2

Money line (ML)

No one is hotter in the majors right now than the Cardinals, who have won 11 straight games and 13 of their last 14. They won the first three games of this series and have their ace on the mound Thursday.

The Brewers have lost four straight games but had won seven of nine before the slump. They have already clinched a playoff berth and even with the three losses to the second-place Cardinals in this series, still lead the NL Central by 8.5 games.

Entering this series, the Brewers led the season series 7-5 but now the Cardinals are up 8-7.

How they have played recently and with Wainwright on the mound makes this fairly easy. Take the CARDINALS (-103).

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Seven of the Cardinals’ 11 consecutive wins were by at least 2 runs. Only three of Wainwright’s last 12 starts were 1-run games.

Only two of the Brewers’ last 15 losses were by 1 run.

In this game, you get value on both the money line and against the spread. You get near-even money for the Cardinals to win and, based on the trends with Wainwright on the mound, you have to like them winning by at least 2 runs.

Take the CARDINALS -1.5 (+160).

Over/Under (O/U)

One of the three games in this series had 9 or more runs. Seven of the Cardinals’ last 13 games had a total of 9 or more and nine of the last 15 games for Milwaukee had 9 or more runs.

However, Wainwright vs. Houser has the feel of a late-season pitching duel in a playoff race.

Take UNDER 8.5 (-125).

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St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Wednesday’s St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Milwaukee Brewers (91-60) host the St. Louis Cardinals (81-69) Wednesday for the third game of their four-game series at American Family Field with the first pitch scheduled for 7:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Cardinals vs. Brewers odds with MLB picks and predictions.

St. Louis has won 10 straight games and 12 of its last 13, including the first two games of this series by a combined score of 7-3.

The Cardinals have taken a 4-game lead for the second NL Wild Card berth while the Brewers have already clinched a playoff berth and their magic number to win the NL Central is at 3.

Season series: Tied 7-7.

RHP Miles Mikolas is St. Louis’s projected starter. He is 1-2 with a 4.50 ERA (32 IP, 16 ER), 1.31 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 5.9 K/9 through seven starts.

  • Last outing: Win, 8-2, with 5 2/3 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 2 BB and 3 K Friday against the San Diego Padres.
  • vs. Brewers on the current roster (46 PA): 5.38 FIP with a .279 batting average (BA), .357 wOBA, .566 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 21.7 K% and 86.1 mph exit velocity (EV).

LHP Brett Anderson makes his 22nd start for the Brewers. He is 4-8 with a 4.18 ERA (88 1/3 IP, 41 ER), 1.34 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 5.7 K/9 this year.

  • Last outing: No-decision in Milwaukee’s 5-2 victory at the San Francisco Giants Sept. 1 with 2 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 1 BB and 2 K.
  • Anderson beat St. Louis, 9-3, April 11 with a stat line of 5 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 2 BB and 1 K.
  • vs. Cardinals on the current roster (93 PA): 6.73 FIP with a .313 BA, .375 wOBA, .636 xSLG, 6.5 K% and 92.2 mph EV.

Cardinals at Brewers odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 2 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Cardinals +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Brewers -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Cardinals +1.5 (-180) | Brewers -1.5 (+145)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -135 | U: +110)

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Prediction

Cardinals 4, Brewers 3

Money line (ML)

It’s square but I have to ride with the hot hand and “LEAN” to the CARDINALS (+110) because they hit lefties better than the Brewers hit righties and St. Louis’s bullpen has been one of the best units in baseball this month.

The Cardinals are 21-13 vs. left-handed pitching with the fifth-best wRC+, sixth-best wOBA and fourth-highest hard-contact rate against lefties.

On the other hand, Milwaukee is 14th in hard-contact rate, 17th in wRC+ and 15th in wOBA against right-handed pitching.

Furthermore, St. Louis’s bullpen has the third-best WAR in September and ranks higher than Milwaukee’s bullpen in xFIP, SIERA and K-BB%. Cardinals relievers have an ERA more than 2 runs lower than the Brew Crew’s this month.

That said, the presumed sharp side of the market is backing Milwaukee while the public is betting St. Louis and I try not to follow the crowd when betting sports.

Also see: Understanding sharp money vs. public money

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS even though I’d love some insurance for St. Louis’s money line because the Cardinals +1.5 (-180) are a little too expensive. St. Louis has been a good run line bet on the road but not good enough to lay -180 in this spot.

Over/Under (O/U)

BET UNDER 8.5 (+110) for 1 unit because this is a “pros vs. joes” situation as more than 90% of the cash wagered is on the Under whereas the public is split on the total, according to Pregame.com at the time of writing. Oddsmakers have reacted by dragging the Cardinals-Brewers total down from the 9-run opener.

And while Anderson won’t be starting any playoff games, the Brewers are 5-13 O/U in his starts despite his mediocrity.

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St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Tuesday’s St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The St. Louis Cardinals (80-69) and Milwaukee Brewers (91-59) play the second game of a four-game series Tuesday. First pitch from American Family Field is set for 7:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Cardinals vs. Brewers odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Cardinals RHP Jake Woodford (2-3, 4.30 ERA) makes his sixth start and 24th appearance. He has a 1.40 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9 and 6.9 K/9 through 52 1/3 IP.

  • Allowed 3 earned runs over 13 1/3 innings with 4 walks and 8 strikeouts through two starts and one relief appearance since being recalled from Triple-A Memphis in September.
  • Held Milwaukee scoreless over 7 innings across two relief appearances, the most recent of which was 5 1/3 innings Sept. 4.

Brewers RHP Brandon Woodruff (9-9, 2.55 ERA) makes his 29th start. He has a 0.96 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 10.5 K/9 through 169 1/3 IP.

  • Has a 4.34 ERA through 29 innings across his last five starts and allowed 6 earned runs over 5 innings in a start at St. Louis to start that span.
  • Does an excellent job of limiting hard contact and ranks in the 92nd percentile in HardHit rate and 94th percentile in average exit velocity.

Cardinals at Brewers odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:15 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Cardinals +180 (bet $100 to win $180) | Brewers -230 (bet $230 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Cardinals +1.5 (-117) | Brewers -1.5 (-103)
  • Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)

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Prediction

Brewers 5, Cardinals 4

Money line (ML)

The analysis on Tuesday’s game can pull in a number of directions.

Woodruff should provide Milwaukee a starting pitching advantage over Woodford, but he is having one of his worst stretches of the season over his last five outings. His worst start of the year was Aug. 19 against the Cardinals.

These relief corps are both top-10 units considering SIERA, xFIP and K-BB% in September.

St. Louis has been hitting the ball significantly better in September than Milwaukee. The Cardinals are top-10 in wRC+, OPS and wOBA over the last three weeks, while the Brewers are 18th or worse in those categories over that span.

Ultimately, Milwaukee is simply too expensive in this spot. St. Louis has won nine straight games and if anything warrants a play as a value-based bet on the Cardinals (+190) but this is a PASS for me.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

St. Louis has just been running too hot lately to believe with much confidence that they’re going to get blown out Tuesday. The Cardinals have won three of their last five meetings with the Brewers outright, all as underdogs, and covered the spread in one of their two losses.

The relief corps for the Cardinals has been excellent in September and should be able to help keep things within reach should Woodford not extend beyond the fifth inning.

St. Louis has been more productive as a road underdog against the spread than Milwaukee has as a home favorite, although I don’t put too much stock into those numbers.

A small play on the CARDINALS +1.5 (-117) is my “lean” here.

Over/Under (O/U)

This total feels a run too low for me. Woodruff hasn’t been as sharp over his last few starts and Woodford is unlikely to escape unscathed as he did in relief against the Brewers at the start of the month.

American Family Field is one of the most hitter-friendly parks in the league, trailing only Coors Field in Denver in run production.

I like the OVER 7.5 (-115).

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St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Monday’s St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The St. Louis Cardinals (79-69) travel to American Family Field to start a four-game series with the Milwaukee Brewers (91-58). First pitch will be at 7:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Cardinals vs. Brewers odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Milwaukee won two of three games in a weekend series against the Chicago Cubs and clinched a playoff berth for a fourth straight season Saturday. The Brewers’ magic number to win the NL Central is three.

St. Louis has won eight straight games and 10 of their last 11, including a  vital three-game sweep over the San Diego Padres. The Cardinals now hold a 3-game lead on the Cincinnati Reds for the second NL Wild Card berth.

Season series: Brewers 7-5.

RHP Jake Woodford is St. Louis’s projected starter. He is 2-3 with a 4.30 ERA (52 1/3 IP, 25 ER), 1.40 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9 and 6.9 K/9 over five starts and 18 relief appearances.

  • Last outing: No-decision with 4 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 2 BB and 0 K in St. Louis’s 7-6 victory at the New York Mets Tuesday.
  • Woodford is 0-0 with a 0 ER, 3 H, 2 BB and 7 K across 7 IP covering two relief appearances against Milwaukee this season.

RHP Freddy Peralta is on the hill for the Brewers. He is 9-4 with a 2.57 ERA (133 IP, 38 ER), 0.95 WHIP, 3.7 BB/9 and 12.2 K/9 through 25 starts and one relief appearance.

  • Last outing: No-decision in Milwaukee’s 1-0 loss at the Detroit Tigers Tuesday with a stat line of 6 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 0 BB and 9 K.
  • Peralta is 0-1 with a 5.73 ERA (11 IP, 7 ER), 9 H, 3 BB and 14 K in three starts against St. Louis this season.
  • vs. Cardinals on the current roster (109 PA): 5.31 FIP with a .253 BA, .362 wOBA, .483 xSLG, 25.7 K% and 87.7 mph exit velocity.

Cardinals at Brewers odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 11:55 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Cardinals +180 (bet $100 to win $180) | Brewers -230 (bet $230 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Cardinals +1.5 (-117) | Brewers -1.5 (-103)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: +100 | U: -125)

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Prediction

Brewers 4, Cardinals 1

Money line (ML)

PASS ON THE MONEY LINE because the Cardinals are white-hot right now and Peralta has a history of tailing off in the second half of the season.

He has a career 4.70 second-half ERA (3.34 first-half ERA), 1.28 WHIP (1.07 first-half WHIP) and 2.6 K/BB (3.3 first-half K/BB). Also, Peralta’s advanced pitching numbers vs. active St. Louis hitters are paltry by his standards.

However, the Brewers will have the momentum of looking to clinch the division at home. Plus, Peralta has always performed better at home with a 73.7% home winning rate and 2.92 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and 3.2 K/BB in 22 home starts and 27 relief appearances.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

“LEAN” to the BREWERS -1.5 (-103) because 11 of the 12 Cardinals-Brewers meetings this season were decided by at least 2 runs and there’s “sharp line movement” toward Milwaukee.

Close to 80% of the money wagered is on the Brewers and the oddsmakers have adjusted Milwaukee’s run line from a plus-money payout to the listed price, according to Pregame.com. At this point, the sportsbooks are trying to entice bettors into backing a hot Cardinals team.

Moreover, the Brewers have owned the NL Central this season with the third-best cover rate against divisional opponents at 43-26 ATS.

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the UNDER 8.5 (-125) because there should be a playoff-like atmosphere in this Cardinals-Brewers series and both teams have played more to the Under in divisional games.

Also, there’s a “pros vs. Joes” scenario in the betting market as more cash is wagered on the Under whereas the Over has received more bets. Typically, it’s wise in sports betting to follow the money when it’s counter to the public.

However, Woodford being a fringe rotation guy, Peralta’s aforementioned second-half struggles and these teams playing more to the Over in their location-based trends are the reasons for my “LEAN” on the UNDER 8.5 (-125).

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers odds, expert picks and prediction

Analyzing Sunday’s St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The St. Louis Cardinals (69-65) wrap a three-game series with the Milwaukee Brewers (83-54) Sunday at American Family Field. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Cardinals vs. Brewers odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Milwaukee tied the set with a 4-0 win Saturday after St. Louis clobbered the Brewers 15-4 in the series opener Friday.

Season series: Brewers lead 6-5.

LHP Jon Lester is on the rubber for the Cardinals. Lester is 5-6 with a 5.05 ERA (107 IP, 60 ER), 1.58 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 5.7 K/9 in 22 starts for St. Louis and the Washington Nationals.

  • Last outing: Win, 3-1, with 6 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 1 H, 2 BB and 5 K Monday at the Cincinnati Reds.
  • Lester has two no-decisions this season against Milwaukee with a 5.40 ERA (8 1/3 IP, 5 ER), 11 H, 3 BB and 4 K in two starts.
  • vs. Brewers on the current roster (148 PA): 2.17 FIP with a .336 batting average (BA), .369 wOBA, .417 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 25.0 K% and 87.3 mph exit velocity (EV).

RHP Corbin Burnes makes his 24th start for the Brewers. Burnes is 9-4 with a 2.27 ERA (139 IP, 35 ER), 0.94 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9 and 12.2 K/9 this year.

  • Last outing: Win, 3-1, with 6 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 0 BB and 9 K Monday at the San Francisco Giants.
  • Burnes is 1-1 against St. Louis this season with a 0.53 ERA (17 IP, 1 ER), 8 H, 3 BB and 21 K in three starts.
  • vs. Cardinals on the current roster (110 PA): 3.24 FIP with a .235 BA, .307 wOBA, .456 xSLG, 37.3 K% and 87.6 mph EV.

Cardinals at Brewers odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:17 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Cardinals +220 (bet $100 to win $220) | Brewers -280 (bet $280 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Cardinals +1.5 (-105) | Brewers -1.5 (-115)
  • Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)

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Prediction

Brewers 4, Cardinals 1

Money line (ML)

Milwaukee has a significant edge in the three most important phases of the game (starting pitching, relief pitching and hitting). However, that’s adequately accounted for in the Brewers (-280) line, which is a little too pricy for me.

Also, Lester’s pitching peripherals against active Milwaukee batters are actually very impressive and the Cardinals-Brewers season series has been back-and-forth all year.

PASS ON THE MONEY LINE.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

“LEAN” to the BREWERS -1.5 (-115) because they are 41-24 ATS against NL Central opponents and have won seven straight home games Burnes has started, four of them by at least 2 runs.

Furthermore, there’s “sharp” line movement towards Milwaukee. Roughly 95% of the cash wagered is on Milwaukee’s run line according to Pregame.com, which has caused oddsmakers to move the Brewers up from a -109 consensus run line favorite to the current price.

To keep this game close the Cardinals would either need a Lester gem or Burnes dud, neither of which is likely to occur. Milwaukee’s lineup could certainly gain a multi-run lead against a St. Louis bullpen that ranks second-to-last in xFIP, SIERA and K-BB%.

Over/Under (O/U)

PASS with a slight “lean” to the Under 7.5 (-108) because we’d be getting near an even-money payout to essentially fade a St. Louis lineup that hits righties poorly and a Milwaukee lineup that’s awful against left-handed pitching.

The reason why I’m avoiding this total though is that these teams have a combined 22-19 O/U record when these starters are on the mound.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers odds, expert picks and prediction

Analyzing Saturday’s St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The St. Louis Cardinals (69-64) face the Milwaukee Brewers (82-54) for the second game of their three-game series Saturday. First pitch from American Family Field is set for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Cardinals vs. Brewers odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Cardinals LHP Kwang Hyun Kim (6-6, 3.23 ERA) makes his 21st start and 22nd appearance. He has a 1.20 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 6.9 K/9 through 97 2/3 IP.

  • Has a 3.55 ERA over six second-half appearances; has not pitched beyond the fourth inning in any of his last four outings.
  • Has benefitted from a .256 BABIP and has a 4.26 xERA and 4.58 xFIP.

Brewers RHP Adrian Houser (7-6, 3.69 ERA) makes his 22nd start in his 24th game. He has a 1.34 WHIP, 4.2 BB/9 and 6.9 K/9 through 112 1/3 IP.

  • Owns a 2.96 ERA over 54 2/3 IP across 10 starts and two relief appearances at home.
  • His 60.2% GB% ranks second amongst all pitchers with at least 110 IP.

Cardinals at Brewers odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:45 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Cardinals +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Brewers -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Cardinals +1.5 (-190) | Brewers -1.5 (+155)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)

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Prediction

Milwaukee 5, St. Louis 3

Money line (ML)

St. Louis absolutely trashed Milwaukee in a 15-4 win in the series opener Friday, but I am not anticipating a repeat performance Saturday.

Kim’s recent appearances lend some support to the idea that he may get an early hook. He was pulled in his last outing after just 4 innings despite that he gave up just 1 earned run on 3 hits and tossed only 64 pitches. He has dealt with a balky back all season, too. Two starts back he also lasted just 4 innings and gave up only 2 earned runs.

A quick trip to the bullpen will expose a weakness for the Cardinals. St. Louis’ relievers rank in the bottom 10 in ERA, SIERA and K-BB% over the last two weeks.

Houser likely won’t go deep into the game for the Brewers either, but Milwaukee’s bullpen (despite Friday’s atrocious showing) are among the league’s best over the last two weeks and throughout the second half of the season.

BET MILWAUKEE (-130).

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

I rarely like to rely on trends when deciding which side of things to come down on, but these two teams have split 10 meetings in the season series, and every game has been won by 2 or more runs.

The Brewers have bullied the NL Central on the run line en route to a 40-24 ATS record, and I like them to get it done today in a matchup that they have a small edge in starting pitching and a big edge on the back end.

Consider a partial-unit play with nice value on the BREWERS -1.5 (+155).

Over/Under (O/U)

This starting pitching matchup swings both squads around to the worst side of their platoon splits. The Brewers are a bottom-10 team on the season against lefties when considering wRC+, wOBA and OPS. The exact same can be said for the Cardinals against right-handed pitching.

Both these starters also shut down the opposition in their one start against them earlier in the season. Kim allowed 1 earned run over 5 1/3 innings when he visited Milwaukee in May, while Houser held the Cards scoreless through 5 innings during an April matchup in St. Louis.

However, these two starters have played mostly to the Over on the year, and Am-Fam Field is one of the most hitter-friendly in all of baseball.

Heading into this one with a cautious “lean” to the UNDER 8.5 (-112).

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers odds, expert picks and prediction

Analyzing Friday’s St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The St. Louis Cardinals (68-64) visit the Milwaukee Brewers (82-53) Friday to begin a three-game series at American Family Field. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Cardinals vs. Brewers odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Brewers lead 5-4.

RHP Adam Wainwright takes the mound for the Cardinals Wainwright is 13-7 with a 2.97 ERA (169 2/3 IP, 56 ER), 1.03 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 8.2 K/9 in 26 starts.

  • Last outing: Win, 13-0, with 7 IP, 3 H, 1 BB and 5 K at the Pittsburgh Pirates Saturday.
  • Wainwright is 0-1 against Milwaukee this season with a 2.45 ERA (11 IP, 3 ER), 14 H, 4 BB and 10 K in two starts.
  • vs. Brewers on the current roster (128 PA): 3.27 FIP with a .243 batting average (BA), .300 wOBA, .417 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 17.2 K% and 88.2 mph exit velocity (EV).

RHP Freddy Peralta is Milwaukee’s projected starter. Peralta is 9-3 with a 2.45 ERA (121 1/3 IP, 33 ER), 0.94 WHIP, 3.8 BB/9 and 12.2 K/9 in 22 starts and one relief appearance.

  • Last outing: No-decision with 2 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 0 BB and 2 K in Milwaukee’s 6-4 victory at the St. Louis Cardinals.
  • Peralta has two no-decisions against St. Louis this season with a 3.00 ERA (9 IP, 3 ER), 6 H, 1 BB and 10 K in two starts.
  • vs. Cardinals on the current roster (97 PA): 4.99 FIP with a .244 BA, .347 wOBA, .497 xSLG, 24.7 K% and 87.7 mph EV.

Cardinals at Brewers odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:32 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Cardinals +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Brewers -180 (bet $180 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Cardinals +1.5 (-150) | Brewers -1.5 (+122)
  • Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -102 | U: -122)

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Prediction

Brewers 5, Cardinals 1

Money line (ML)

“LEAN” to the BREWERS (-180) only because it’s on the fringe of my buy-price but Milwaukee has an edge in the three most important facets of the game (starting pitching, relief pitching and hitting).

While Wainwright turned 40 earlier this week and is having a throwback season, he has been aided by tremendous defensive play. Wainwright has a mediocre K%, EV, hard-hit rate and xSLG.

However, Peralta has some of the best stuff in the league. Peralta grades in the 89th percentile or better in hard-hit rate, EV, xSLG, K%, expected wOBA and whiff rate.  He was dominant in his first start against St. Louis season and exited his second start with an injury that placed him on the IL. Presumably, Peralta has recovered and should be dialed in for fall baseball.

In addition, Milwaukee’s bullpen ranks in the top 10 in several advanced pitching categories whereas St. Louis’s ranks near the bottom. For instance, the Cardinals relievers have the second-worst xFIP, SIERA and K-BB%.

Since Milwaukee’s money line is so expensive, I’d entertain throwing the Brewers (-180) into a parlay with another similarly priced favorite to get a plus-money payout.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

“LEAN” to the BREWERS -1.5 (+122) for a half unit because Milwaukee has the second-best cover rate against divisional foes at 40-23 ATS, St. Louis is 25-31 ATS vs. NL Central opponents and all nine Cardinals-Brewers meetings this year have been decided by at least 2 runs.

Over/Under (O/U)

PASS with a slight “lean” to the Under 7.5 (-122) because both the “pros” and “joes” are headed in that direction and oddsmakers have brought this total down from the flat-8 opener according to Pregame.com.

On the other hand, we are getting the worst of the number at this point and if Wainwright doesn’t pitch into the 7th inning, Milwaukee’s lineup could rake St. Louis’s weak bullpen.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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