Cardinals Blue Jays picks prediction spread over/under betting line

The Toronto Blue Jays (54-43) host the St. Louis Cardinals (51-47) Wednesday for the 2nd game of their interleague back-to-back set at Rogers Centre. First pitch is set for 7:07 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Cardinals vs. Blue Jays odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Toronto clobbered St. Louis 10-3 Wednesday with the Blue Jays’ top of the order (CF George Springer, 1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and C Alejandro Kirk) combining for 3 home runs with 7 RBIs including Springer’s 6th-inning grand slam.

Season series: Toronto leads 2-1 and has a plus-10 run differential in those meetings.

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Cardinals at Blue Jays projected starters

RHP Adam Wainwright vs. RHP Kevin Gausman

Wainwright is 6-8 with a 3.40 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 7.0 K/9 in 116 1/3 IP across 19 starts.

Last start: Loss, 9-5, Friday at the Cincinnati Reds with 5 1/3 IP, 7 ER, 5 H, 2 HR, 3 BB and 2 K.
2022 road splits: 3-5 with a 4.81 ERA (58 IP, 31 ER), 1.40 WHIP, 9 HR and 6.2 K/9 in 10 starts.

Gausman is 7-7 with a 3.00 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 10.5 K/9 in 99 IP over 18 starts.

Last start: Win, 28-5, Friday at the Boston Red Sox with 5 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 2 HR, 0 BB and 10 K.
2022 vs. the Cardinals: 1 start — an 8-1 win May 24 in St. Louis — with 6-scoreless IP, 4 H, 2 BB and 8 K.

Cardinals at Blue Jays odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:39 p.m. ET.

Money line (ML): Cardinals +230 (bet $100 to win $230) | Blue Jays -300 (bet $300 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Cardinals +1.5 (+102) | Blue Jays -1.5 (-125)
Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -130 | U: +105)

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Cardinals at Blue Jays picks and predictions

Prediction

Blue Jays 7, Cardinals 4

Money line

PASS.

I’m not risking more than 2 times my potential return for any MLB regular-season ML favorite let alone against a Cardinals team that has enough talent despite the absence of both of its All-Stars — 3B Nolan Arenado and 1B Paul Goldschmidt — who aren’t vaccinated for COVID and can’t travel to Canada.

That said, the Blue Jays are the right side of this bet because they are 29-17 straight up (SU) as home favorites and 45-31 SU vs. right-handed starters. While the Cardinals are 11-20 SU as road underdogs and 40-38 SU against righty starters.

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Run line/Against the spread

BET a HALF-UNIT on the BLUE JAYS -1.5 (-125) because their RL opened at -115 and has been steamed up for obvious reasons by sharp action according to Pregame.com.

Gausman leads MLB in FIP (1.98) and Toronto’s lineup is much more productive vs. right-handed pitching. However, the Blue Jays are just 17-29 RL as home favorites and I hate paying a tax for a RL.

Over/Under

BET a HALF-UNIT on the OVER 7.5 (-130) because Toronto is 27-19 O/U as a home favorite, Cardinals-Blue Jays have a combined 18-9 O/U record in interleague play and Rogers Centre is hitter-friendly with the 10th-highest park factor.

My hesitancy with the OVER 7.5 (-130) is most of the market is hammering the Over as well and St. Louis’s is without its 2 best sluggers.

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The St. Louis Cardinals (51-46) head north of the border Tuesday to start an interleague back-to-back with the Toronto Blue Jays (53-43) at the Rogers Centre with the 1st pitch set for 7:07 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Cardinals vs. Blue Jays odds with MLB picks and predictions.

St. Louis will be without 2 All-Stars for this series — 3B Nolan Arenado and 1B Paul Goldschmidt — who are both not vaccinated for COVID and unable to travel to Canada.

The Cardinals lost 2 of 3 at the Cincinnati Reds this past weekend but are 6-4 straight up (SU) over their last 10 games starting before last week’s All-Star break.

The Blue Jays have won 6 straight, which includes a 3-game sweep at the Boston Red Sox, and Toronto is 8-2 SU over the last 10 games.

Season series: Tied 1-1, but the Blue Jays have a plus-3 run differential in those meetings.

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Cardinals at Blue Jays projected starters

RHP Andre Pallante vs. RHP Jose Berrios

Pallante is 3-4 with a 3.34 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 6.0 K/9 in 70 IP over 8 starts and 18 relief appearances in his rookie season.

Last start: Win, 7-3, July 15 at home vs. the Reds with 5 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 3 BB and 5 K.
2022 road splits: 0-2 with a 3.70 ERA (24 1/3 IP, 10 ER), 1.48 WHIP, 3 HR and 7.0 K/9 in 3 starts and 8 bullpen outings.

Berrios is 7-4 with a 5.22 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 8.2 K/9 in 101 2/3 IP across 19 starts.

Last start: No-decision in Toronto’s 4-2 home win vs. the Kansas City Royals with 6 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 7 H, 1 HR, 1 BB and 7 K.
2022 vs. the Cardinals: 1 start — a 7-3 loss in St. Louis May 23 — with 6 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 1 HR, 0 BB and 7 K.

Cardinals at Blue Jays odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:50 a.m. ET.

Money line (ML): Cardinals +180 (bet $100 to win $180) | Blue Jays -230 (bet $230 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Cardinals +1.5 (-112) | Blue Jays -1.5 (-108)
Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -135 | U: +110)

Cardinals at Blue Jays picks and predictions

Prediction

Blue Jays 5, Cardinals 3

Money line

PASS.

The Blue Jays (-230) are the right side because the Cardinals (+180) are down their 2 best players, and Toronto has a much better winning percentage in interleague play than St. Louis. However, we’re not laying -230 on them.

Run line/Against the spread

BET the BLUE JAYS -1.5 (-108) for a half-unit because Berrios is a much better pitcher at home, and Toronto’s lineup has been raking lately.

Berrios is 5-0 at home with a 3.33 ERA (7.15 road ERA), 1.17 WHIP (1.55 road WHIP) and 10.9 K/9 (6.4 K/9 on the road) in 9 starts.

Finally, the Blue Jays have the highest hard-hit rate in the majors and the 2nd-highest wOBA over the last 30 days according to FanGraphs.

Hit the BLUE JAYS -1.5 (-108) for a half-unit because they are 16-29 RL as home favorites, and save a little in the budget for the Under.

Over/Under

Take the UNDER 8.5 (+110).

Berrios should have a quality start at home vs. St. Louis’ lineup sans Arenado and Goldschmidt, and Pallante is a groundball-pitcher while Toronto’s lineup hits an above-average rate of groundballs.

Also, more than 80% of the money is on the Over according to Pregame.com because most of the O/U situational trends point to a higher-scoring game. Let’s fade the market and trends.

BET a half-unit on the UNDER 8.5 (+110) since there’s some value in Toronto’s ML too.