In a WBA super middleweight title fight, Canelo Alvarez and Callum Smith meet Saturday at the Alamodome in San Antonio, Texas. The vacant WBC belt is also up for grabs. The fight card kicks off at 8 p.m. ET on DAZN.
Canelo vs. Smith: Tale of the tape
Alvarez (53-1-2) steps into the ring looking for his fifth consecutive victory since a split draw against Gennadiy Golovkin Sept. 16, 2017. He avenged that tie with a majority decision victory Sept. 15, 2018 against GGG. With Golovkin’s victory in the seventh round on Friday over Kamil Szeremeta, there is increasing talk of a trilogy fight between Canelo and GGG. But the Mexican superstar needs to get by the Briton Smith first.
Last time out, it was Canelo taking care of Sergey Kovalev in an 11th-round knockout Nov. 2, 2019. It was a rare finish, as four of his past six fights have ended up going the distance. However, he does have 36 knockouts in his 56 career professional fights, and the lack of KO/TKOs lately is more a product of much better quality of opponents rather than something Canelo isn’t doing.
Also see: Watch Alvarez vs. Smith on DAZN
Smith (24-0) enters with an unblemished record in 24 career professional fights. He is coming off a unanimous-decision victory over John Ryder on Nov. 23, 2019 at Echo Arena in Liverpool, England. This will be his third-career fight in the United States, with both previous ending in knockout victories. He is hoping the third time is a charm, too, but it’s a tall order against Canelo.
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Canelo vs. Smith betting odds, predictions and picks
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:30 a.m. ET.
CANELO ALVAREZ (-450) is a heavy favorite on the 3-way line, and while I’m personally not a fan of risking four-and-a-half times my potential return, Canelo should get it done. If you can pair it in a parlay, he isn’t a terrible option. Let’s get more specific, however.
Taking Canelo by KO/TKO/TECHNICAL DECISION OR DQ (+100) is a much, much better play at even money, although as mentioned above, four of his past six fights have gone the distance. If you were to play Canelo on points (+160), it’s not a bad play, either. But obviously you cannot play both.
In addition, pick a three-round block to target for a bigger payday. The strategy worked in Friday’s GGG fight, so let’s do it again. In this one, Smith should take him pretty far into the night, so look to the later rounds. CANELO ALVAREZ IN ROUND 8 (+1200), CANELO ALVAREZ IN ROUND 9 (+1200) and CANELO ALVAREZ IN ROUND 10 (+1200) are the rounds I’d target. Yes, you will lose two of those ends, but if he wins in Rounds 8-10, you’ll be well ahead.
Boxing Junkie:
- Canelo Alvarez, Callum Smith both weigh in at 168 pounds
- Photos: Callum Smith workout inside ‘bubble’ in San Antonio
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