The BYU Cougars (19-14, 7-9 WCC) square off with the No. 16 Saint Mary’s Gaels (25-6, 14-2) Monday in a WCC semifinal. Tip from Orleans Arena in Las Vegas is at 9 p.m. ET (ESPN). Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the BYU vs. Saint Mary’s odds, and make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and bets.
Rankings courtesy of the USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll.
The Gaels finished the regular season tied for the WCC lead with Gonzaga to secure the top seed in the conference tournament. Saint Mary’s toppled BYU twice along the way, winning 57-56 as a 6.5-point road favorite on Jan. 28 and 71-65 as a 10-point home favorite on Feb. 18.
Saint Mary’s will likely be a top-5 seed in March Madness regardless of the WCC Tournament, but BYU must win this game to have any chance of making it.
The Cougars rank 84th in the nation with 75.6 points per game on the season. However, they will have their work cut out against a truly elite Gaels defense that ranks 5th nationally with just 59.3 points allowed per game.
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BYU vs. Saint Mary’s odds
Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:41 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): BYU +240 (bet $100 to win $240) | Saint Mary’s -320 (bet $320 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): BYU +7.5 (-115) | Saint Mary’s -7.5 (-105)
- Over/Under (O/U): 128.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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BYU vs. Saint Mary’s picks and predictions
Prediction
Saint Mary’s 66, BYU 62
Moneyline
PASS.
Saint Mary’s (-320) has beaten BYU twice already this season, but they were both close games.
This should be another win for the Gaels with a possible rematch against Gonzaga and WCC Title on the line, but you shouldn’t risk more than 3 times your potential return on the moneyline.
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Against the spread
BET BYU +7.5 (-115).
BYU’s 2 losses to Saint Mary’s came by a combined 7 points.
The Gaels are the better team but they are not an offensive team and the Cougars are able to score enough to keep games close in this series.
While BYU will fall short of its season average (75.6 points per game), it will do more than what is needed to stay competitive against a Saint Mary’s team that averages 71.9 points per game.
Over/Under
LEAN UNDER 128.5 (-115).
This will be a slow, physical game with Saint Mary’s allowing just 59.3 points per game and BYU allowing 69.9.
BYU is ranked 134th in field-goal percentage (45.4) and 181st in 3-point percentage (34.1), so there will be plenty of missed shots. Second-chance points for the Cougars will also be hard to come by as Saint Mary’s is a better-than-average defensive-rebounding team. The Gaels will use this advantage to slow down the game even more, making the UNDER 128.5 (-115) my lean Monday.
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