Bucks Nuggets odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

Milwaukee Bucks at Denver Nuggets odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s Milwaukee Bucks at Denver Nuggets odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Milwaukee Bucks (53-20) and Denver Nuggets (49-24) meet Saturday at Ball Arena. Tip-off is scheduled for 9:00 p.m. ET (NBA TV). Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the Bucks vs. Nuggets odds, and make our expert NBA picks and predictions.

The Bucks covered the spread as 9.5-point favorites Friday with a 144-116 win at the Utah Jazz. G Grayson Allen finished with a season-high 25 points as Milwaukee won its 3rd straight game.

The Nuggets covered as 9-point favorites Wednesday with a 118-104 win at the Washington Wizards. Denver finished 3-2 straight up and against the spread on its 5-game road trip.

This is the 2nd meeting this season between these teams. Denver covered as a 12.5-point road underdog in a 107-99 loss as the Under (228.5) cashed Jan. 25.

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Bucks at Nuggets odds

Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:35 p.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Bucks +130 (bet $100 to win $130) | Nuggets -150 (bet $150 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Bucks +3.5 (-115) | Nuggets -3.5 (-105)
Over/Under (O/U): 236.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)

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Bucks at Nuggets key injuries

Bucks

F Jae Crowder (calf) questionable
F Khris Middleton (knee) questionable

Nuggets

None

For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.

Bucks at Nuggets picks and predictions

Prediction

Nuggets 120, Bucks 110

Moneyline

PASS.

Denver (-150) has the 2nd-best home record this season at 30-6 and should beat the Bucks, but there is no need to pay the higher price on the moneyline when the Nuggets should win by margin. Bet the spread and/or total instead.

Against the spread

BET NUGGETS -3.5 (-105).

Denver has played up to the level of its competition lately at Ball Arena and is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 home games vs. teams with a winning record on the road. All of the Nuggets’ main players are healthy and will be better rested than Milwaukee’s. Denver is the best team in the league when it has rest advantage over its opponent (12-5-1 ATS) and should be able to beat up on a Bucks team that is due for a letdown after an impressive win last time out.

Over/Under

BET UNDER 236.5 (-108).

The Under is 4-0 in Denver’s last 4 games and 7-2 in Milwaukee’s last 9 after scoring more than 125 points in its previous contest. The Bucks tend to underperform offensively when playing on no rest, and the Under is 7-2 in their last 9 games on the 2nd night of a back-to-back. Look for Milwaukee to have trouble scoring in the Denver altitude after playing the night before.

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Milwaukee Bucks at Denver Nuggets odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Friday’s Milwaukee Bucks at Denver Nuggets odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Milwaukee Bucks (11-8) travel to “Mile High City” to play the Denver Nuggets (9-9) Friday. Tip-off from Ball Arena is set for 9 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Bucks vs. Nuggets odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions, and bets.

Milwaukee is the winner of five in a row. However, none of those victories came against teams with a winning record and the Bucks have only covered in two of those games. The Bucks are 8-11 ATS and 5-14 O/U with the ninth-best net rating (plus-2.4).

Denver is the loser of five in a row (0-5 ATS), but, reigning MVP Nikola Jokic has been sidelined with a wrist injury for three of those games. The Nuggets are 7-11 ATS and 7-11 O/U with the 20th-best net rating (minus-0.5).

These teams split last year’s season series 1-1 with the road team winning and covering both games with both sides of the total cashing.

Bucks at Nuggets odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:45 p.m. ET.

Money line: Bucks -165 (bet $165 to win $100) | Nuggets +133 (bet $100 to win $133)
Against the spread (ATS): Bucks -3.5 (-115) | Nuggets +3.5 (-107)
Over/Under (O/U): 213.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Bucks at Nuggets key injuries

Bucks

C Brook Lopez (back) out
SG Donte DiVincenzo (ankle) out

Nuggets

C Nikola Jokic (wrist) questionable
PG Jamal Murray (knee) out
SF Michael Porter Jr. (back) out

Bucks at Nuggets odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Bucks 110, Nuggets 101

Money line

“LEAN” to the BUCKS (-165) because there’s a chance Jokic doesn’t play but if he does then I’d rather need a Milwaukee straight-up victory than lay the points.

Milwaukee’s five-game win streak coincides with the return of two-time All-Star F Khris Middleton. The Bucks are much healthier and trending in a far better direction than the Nuggets at the moment.

Furthermore, two of the Bucks Big 3 (Middleton and big Giannis Antetokounmpo) are in the top-10 of isolation offensive frequency. Denver ranks dead-last in defensive efficiency against isolation offense.

The key to Milwaukee’s five-game win streak has been its top-ranked defensive efficiency, and with two of Denver’s best shot creators sidelined with injury, the Bucks’ should smother the Nuggets.

According to ShotQuality.com, Milwaukee shoots the fifth-highest frequency of catch-and-shoot 3-pointers and the eighth-highest frequency of off-the-dribble 3-pointers.

The Bucks will be facing a Denver squad that ranks 21st in adjusted shot quality vs. off-the-dribble 3-pointers and dead-last vs. catch-and-shoot 3-pointers.

Against the spread

“LEAN” to the BUCKS -3.5 (-115) only because we’d be getting the best of the number if Jokic misses Friday’s game but the worst of the number if he plays. That said, Milwaukee should win by margin, either way, I just feel stronger about betting the Bucks outright instead.

Over/Under

“LEAN” to the UNDER 213.5 (-110) because these teams have a combined 12-26 O/U record yet roughly 90% of the action is on the Over, according to the Yahoo! Sports app.

There’s a lot of offensive firepower on the floor, but both teams like to play through the post, and Milwaukee’s defense has been dominant in recent weeks.

There are two things that worry me about the Under in Bucks-Nuggets. First, the likelihood of Milwaukee role players knocking down 3-pointers off of Giannis and Middleton isolation plays. Second, the Bucks rank fourth in transition offensive frequency.

If Milwaukee pushes the pace and these teams engage in a 3-point shootout, our UNDER 213.5 (-110) could be trash.

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

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Milwaukee Bucks at Denver Nuggets odds, picks and prediction

Previewing Monday’s Milwaukee Bucks at Denver Nuggets NBA odds and lines, with basketball picks, tips and predictions.

The Milwaukee Bucks (15-8) visit the Denver Nuggets (12-10) at the Ball Arena Monday for a 9:30 p.m. ET tip-off. Below, we analyze the Bucks-Nuggets NBA odds and lines, with picks and predictions.

Milwaukee has won and covered four straight following back-to-back road losses to the New Orleans Pelicans and Charlotte Hornets a couple of weeks ago. Over their last six games, the Bucks are only 4-2 but have the highest net rating and second-highest effective field goal percentage in the NBA.

Seven of Denver’s eight previous games were on the road, and the Nuggets were 5-3 overall in those games (5-3 against the spread). The Nuggets have lost three of their past four games with the win coming against the red-hot Utah Jazz Jan. 31.

Denver won both games against Milwaukee last season and have won six of the previous eight meetings (5-3 ATS).

Bucks at Nuggets: Odds, spread and lines

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:45 p.m. ET.

Money line: Bucks -175 (bet $175 to win $100) | Nuggets +145 (bet $100 to win $145)
Against the spread/ATS: Bucks -4.5 (-105) | Nuggets +4.5 (-115)
Over/Under: 233.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Bucks at Nuggets: Key injuries

Bucks

Nothing affecting the betting odds.

Nuggets

PG Jamal Murray (knee) questionable
SG Gary Harris (thigh) out
SG P.J. Dozier (hamstring) out

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Bucks at Nuggets: Odds, lines, predictions and picks

Prediction

Bucks 121, Nuggets 110

Money line (ML)

PASS since Milwaukee is the right side, but Bucks (-175) is too rich for my blood.

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Against the spread (ATS)

Even though the Nuggets won both meetings last season vs. the Bucks, Nikola Jokic struggled in those games, averaging 12.5 points per game on .367/.250/.500 shooting with a 91 offensive rating. And Denver’s 14-point victory over Milwaukee last season came against a Giannis Antetokounmpo– and Khris Middleton-less Bucks team.

Also, Murray is questionable with a knee injury and Bucks PG Jrue Holiday has outplayed Murray in their 11 meetings. Holiday is averaging more points and assists per game on better shooting, and his teams have a 6-5 record in those games.

Finally, the Bucks have an edge from behind the arc and can negate what the Nuggets do well (grab offensive rebounds). Milwaukee is the third-best 3-point shooting team in the Association and Denver is ranked 27th in defensive effective field goal percentage.

The Bucks are even worse at defending the three. The Nuggets have the sixth-highest 3-point percentage, but Denver only attempts the 19th-most threes per game. During their four-game win streak, Milwaukee held opponents to 110 or fewer points in each game.

I’ll TAKE the BUCKS -4.5 (-105) for 1 unit.

Over/Under (O/U)

PASS because my numbers aren’t that far off BetMGM’s projection hence there’s no value for me to bet the total. For the record, the Over has cashed in five of the previous six Bucks-Nuggets games in Denver so I lean Over 233.5 (-110) but the total is too sharp for me to bet.

Want some action on this one? Place a bet at BetMGM now. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Also see:

NBA players react to Tom Brady, Buccaneers winning Super Bowl (Rookie Wire)
Trade rumor rankings (Hoops Hype)

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