Bucks Celtics odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

Milwaukee Bucks at Boston Celtics odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s Milwaukee Bucks at Boston Celtics odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Milwaukee Bucks (1-2) take on the Boston Celtics (3-0) Monday at TD Garden. Tipoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET (NBA TV). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NBA odds around the Bucks vs. Celtics odds and make our expert NBA picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: First meeting; Tied 2-2 last year

The Bucks have dropped 2 straight after winning their season opener. The Brooklyn Nets beat them 115-102 Sunday as the Bucks were 8.5-point favorites. F Giannis Antetokounmpo had 22 points, 12 boards and 7 assists. G Damian Lillard pitched in 21 points.

The Celtics have experienced no NBA title hangover, but were tested in their Saturday victory over the Detroit Pistons. They won 124-118 as 12.5-point favorites. F Jayson Tatum had a game-high 37 points. He’s averaging 33 PPG, 6.3 RPG and 6 APG.

Bucks at Celtics odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of NBA odds. Lines last updated at 12:46 p.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Bucks +340 (bet $100 to win $340) | Celtics -450 (bet $450 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Bucks +9.5 (-110) | Celtics -9.5 (-110)
Over/Under (O/U): 232.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Bucks at Celtics key injuries

Bucks

F Khris Middleton (ankle) questionable

Celtics

C Kristaps Porzingis (foot) out

For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.

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Bucks at Celtics picks and predictions

Prediction

Celtics 119, Bucks 115

Moneyline

The Bucks are really missing their 3rd piece. Giannis is averaging 28.3 PPG, and Dame is averaging 26.3 PPG, but their next-highest piece is F Bobby Portis with 13.7 PPG off the bench.

Meanwhile, the Celtics look like a steamroller. That said, the Bucks played hard in Boston last year, losing by 3 points twice.

So PASS and look to the spread.

Against the spread

The Bucks could have overlooked the Chicago Bulls and Nets in their 2 recent losses gearing up for this game. I expect them to show up, but I don’t believe they have enough firepower to get it done yet.

Take the BUCKS +9.5 (-110).

Over/Under

The Bucks are 23rd in defensive rating, and the Celtics are 15th. It’s super early, and those will tighten up, but there are clearly leaks. Both teams are 2-1 O/U. The Over was 1-3 in this matchup last year, but this number would have hit 3 times.

This number is too low. Take the OVER 232.5 (-110).

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Milwaukee Bucks at Boston Celtics odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s Milwaukee Bucks at Boston Celtics odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Milwaukee Bucks (44-24) take on the Boston Celtics (54-14) Wednesday with tip-off from TD Garden set for 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Bucks vs. Celtics odds and make our expert NBA picks and predictions.

Season series: Tied 1-1

The Bucks come into town fresh off a 140-129 goring of the Phoenix Suns Sunday without F Giannis Antetokounmpo. He’s out again Wednesday. G Damian Lillard and F Bobby Portis Jr. each had 31 points, and the Bucks got double figures from 6 players. The Bucks pulled ahead of the Cleveland Cavaliers for 2nd in the conference.

The Celtics are 10 games ahead of the Bucks, and in all likelihood, will clinch the top seed soon. They’ve rattled off 6 straight wins after dismantling the Detroit Pistons 119-94 Monday without F Jayson Tatum and G Jrue Holiday. G Jaylen Brown‘s 31 headlined a quartet of players with 20+ points, including C Kristaps Porzingis, G Payton Pritchard and G Derrick White.

Bucks at Celtics odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:15 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Bucks +400 (bet $100 to win $400) | Celtics -550 (bet $550 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Bucks +10.5 (-110) | Celtics -10.5 (-110)
Over/Under (O/U): 223.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Bucks at Celtics key injuries

Bucks

F Giannis Antetokounmpo (hamstring) out

Celtics

G Jaylen Brown (ankle) questionable
G Jrue Holiday (shoulder) questionable

For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.

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Bucks at Celtics and predictions

Prediction

Celtics 121, Bucks 106

Moneyline

Treat betting on the Celtics through the rest of the regular season like you’re holding a stick of dynamite. They’re so far ahead of the pack, they could rest anyone at any time, and Brown on the injury report may signal his night to chill.

Still, they’re 31-3 at home this year and have enough to beat anyone even short-handed. There’s no play on the ML here, but I love what I’m seeing from Portis. He’s inconsistent, but he has dropped 20+ in 3 of his last 7. He went 5-for-5 from long range Sunday, and I’ll take BOBBY PORTIS JR. OVER 1.5 3-POINTERS (+125).

Against the spread

This is a trap spread. The books will entice casuals to throw down on Milwaukee, but this line has been steamed up from 7.5 to 10.5. That’s because sharp bettors know this and are set to cash in. I would have taken the Celtics at -7.5. They have the talent to blow the doors off the Garden, but do they have the incentive? Too dicey for me. So let’s cook up a very winnable SGP. Take the CELTICS -4.5 + JAYSON TATUM 5 REBOUNDS + JAYSON TATUM 4 ASSISTS (-105). JT has 5+ boards in 5 straight and 4+ assists in 5 of 6. This feels like a game he’ll look to facilitate before they pull starters in the 4th.

Over/Under

Boston is 4-5-1 O/U over the last 10, and Milwaukee is 3-6-1. Head-to-head, the Over is 5-5 in the last 10. Money is pouring in on the Over, according to Pregame.com. The total has only gone up and down 1 point, so let’s take advantage before it goes up a couple of more.

Take the OVER 223.5 (-115).

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Milwaukee Bucks at Boston Celtics odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Sunday’s Milwaukee Bucks at Boston Celtics odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Milwaukee Bucks (22-10) and Boston Celtics (23-10) meet Sunday at TD Garden. Tip-off is scheduled for 5 p.m. ET (ABC). Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the Bucks vs. Celtics odds, and make our expert NBA picks and predictions.

The Bucks failed to cover as 2.5-point underdogs in a 118-100 loss at the Brooklyn Nets Friday. F Giannis Antetokounmpo finished with 26 points and 13 rebounds, both game-highs, despite being held scoreless in the 4th quarter.

Milwaukee is 3-13-1 against the spread (ATS) vs. the Celtics in their last 17 meetings.

Boston covered as a 9.5-point home favorite 121-109 vs. the Minnesota Timberwolves Friday. G Jaylen Brown scored 23 of his game-high 36 points in the 4th quarter as the Celtics ended their season-worst 3-game skid.

Boston is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games vs. teams with a winning percentage above .600.

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Bucks at Celtics odds

Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:09 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Bucks +170 (bet $100 to win $170) | Celtics -200 (bet $200 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Bucks +4.5 (-105) | Celtics -4.5 (-115)
Over/Under (O/U): 224.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Bucks at Celtics key injuries

Bucks

F Khris Middleton (knee) doubtful

Celtics

G Marcus Smart (hip) probable

For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.

Bucks at Celtics picks and predictions

Prediction

Celtics 115, Bucks 105

Moneyline

PASS.

Boston should win, but I wouldn’t recommend risking 2 times your potential profit on the ML when they’re in a good spot to cover Sunday. Bet the spread or the total instead.

Against the spread

BET CELTICS -4.5 (-115).

The Celtics own the Bucks. Boston is 6-2 ATS vs. Milwaukee in the last 8 meetings at TD Garden and held the Bucks to just 97.7 points per game in the 2022 Eastern Conference Semifinals. Milwaukee should continue to struggle to score vs. Boston’s defense. Lay the points.

Over/Under

BET UNDER 224.5 (-108).

The Celtics step up their defense when facing playoff-caliber teams. The Under is 4-0 in Boston’s last 4 games vs. teams with a winning percentage above .600.

These 2 teams also have a history of playing low-scoring games against each other as the Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Boston. Expect a slower pace Sunday and a playoff-like atmosphere.

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Milwaukee Bucks at Boston Celtics Game 7 odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Sunday’s Milwaukee Bucks at Boston Celtics Game 7 odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Milwaukee Bucks (3-3) visit TD Garden Sunday to take on the Boston Celtics (3-3) in Game 7 of their Eastern Conference semifinal series. Tip-off is set for 3:30 p.m. ET (ABC). Below, we look at the Bucks vs. Celtics odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

The reigning champion Bucks still have a chance to keep their back-to-back hopes alive. Having battled without their second-best scorer, G Khris Middleton, Milwaukee has struggled offensively in the series.

The Bucks have been led by 2-time MVP F Giannis Antetokounmpo, who is averaging 32.3 points per game and shooting 50% from the field. Milwaukee is 6-10 against the spread (ATS) this season as a road underdog.

The Celtics are captained by star F Jayson Tatum, who has erupted into a full-blown superstar this postseason by averaging 28.8 points per game.

Boston is 3-2-1 ATS this series and 18-24-1 ATS as a home favorite this season. The Celtics will be down starting C Robert Williams III, a key blow to defending the lengthy Antetokounmpo.

Bucks at Celtics odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:08 a.m. ET.

Money line: Bucks +170 (bet $100 to win $170) | Celtics -210 (bet $210 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Bucks +5.5 (-120) | Celtics -5.5 (-105)
Over/Under (O/U): 205.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)

Bucks at Celtics key injuries

Bucks

G Khris Middleton (knee) out

Celtics

C Robert Williams (knee) out

[tipico]

Bucks at Celtics picks and predictions

Prediction

Bucks 108, Celtics 106

Money line

PASS.

I think Milwaukee has the experience and personnel to come out on top, and while the +170 does give good value, I’d rather take the safer side and play the points, especially considering 2 of the 6 games have ended with 4 points.

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Against the spread

BET BUCKS +5.5 (-120).

Milwaukee has championship DNA. I’m not willing to bet that it wins, but this spread is too large not to strongly consider.

Also, Williams being sidelined is crucial. Giannis has scored 34 or more points in all 3 games in which Williams has been sidelined, and he’s notched 40 in 2 straight performances.

The Bucks were 24-17 on the road this season, tied for the second-best away record in the Eastern Conference. Boston and Milwaukee have also traded off wins and losses since the first game of the series, with it being the Bucks turn to come out on top.

Lastly, starting Boston C Al Horford, who will be expected to play big-time minutes, is shooting 41% on 3-pointers this series and has only consistently topped 40% one time in his 15-year career.

Regression is due, and combine that with the other factors, and I’ll take the Bucks to cover here.

Over/Under

LEAN OVER 205.5 (-115).

While the Under is 4-2 in this series, both teams have big-time scorers who should be able to shine on the NBA’s brightest stage. Tatum and Antetokounmpo should be able to get loose as both teams are missing top-tier defenders.

The teams have gone 2-1 O/U in the last 3 games as well, suggesting they’re starting to figure each other out. Williams’ absence is a huge reason why as well, forcing the Celtics to either go small or bring in a more offensive-minded threat in F Daniel Theis.

Regardless, both teams have stars that should be able to dominate. With the recent trends as well, I’ll take the Over here.

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Milwaukee Bucks at Boston Celtics Game 5 odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s Milwaukee Bucks at Boston Celtics Game 5 lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The No. 2 seed Boston Celtics (2-2) host the No. 3 seed Milwaukee Bucks (2-2) for Game 5 of their Eastern Conference semifinals playoff series at TD Garden. Tip-off is set for 7 p.m. ET (TNT). Below, we look at the Bucks vs. Celtics Game 5 odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Boston stole Game 4 Monday by outscoring Milwaukee 43-28 in the 4th quarter to book a 116-108 victory. Celtics big Al Horford had a career game with 30 points on 11-for-14 shooting (5-for-7 from 3-point range) and was a major reason for Boston’s 4th-quarter comeback win.

Bucks’ former 2-time MVP PF Giannis Antetokounmpo has been dominant, putting up series bests in points (32.0), rebounds (13.0) and assists (8.0).

However, wing Khris Middleton‘s absence is hurting Milwaukee’s late-game execution and PG Jrue Holiday has struggled to pick up the slack. Holiday is averaging a very inefficient 21.3 points per game on 33.7% shooting.

The Celtics are 8-1-1 against the spread (ATS) vs. the Bucks in their last 10 meetings and the total is 5-5 Over/Under (O/U).

Bucks at Celtics odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:37 a.m. ET.

Money line (ML): Bucks +180 (bet $100 to win $180) | Celtics -230 (bet $230 to win $100)
Against the spread: Bucks +5.5 (-110) | Celtics -5.5 (-110)
Over/Under: 213.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Bucks at Celtics key injuries

Bucks

SG George Hill (abdominal) probable
SF Khris Middleton (knee) out

Celtics

PF Robert Williams III (knee) questionable

[tipico]

Bucks at Celtics picks and predictions

Prediction

Celtics 112, Bucks 103

Money line

PASS because home favorites have been pretty reliable on the ML this postseason but the Celtics (-230) are out of my price range.

I cannot get behind the Bucks stealing Game 5 either because Giannis can’t play any better and Holiday is shooting the Bucks out of the games.

Boston’s defense appears to be wearing Milwaukee’s offense down and the Bucks are a Khris Middleton away from being up 3-1 in this series.

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Against the spread

LEAN CELTICS -5.5 (-110) because we might be able to get a better number if we wait until closer to tip-off.

The public will be on the Bucks because Game 4 was a lot closer than the final score indicates and the defending champions are getting 5 or more points. Also, Boston would’ve lost Game 4 if Horford didn’t have a career night and that probably won’t happen again.

However, home teams have been profitable in these playoffs because role players step up at home and home teams tend to get the benefit of the whistle. The Celtics are outperforming the Bucks in effective field goal shooting and free-throw attempt rate in this series.

We’ve seen so many lopsided games in the postseason because the NBA game has become slightly randomized due to the never-ending increase in 3-point attempt volume. It’s a big number but if either team gets hot from behind the arc then Game 5 could get out of hand.

Most of the action is on the Bucks so it’s a LEAN to the CELTICS -5.5 (-110) with the hopes of getting a better price later.

Over/Under

Slight LEAN to the OVER 213.5 (-110) because all 4 referees assigned to Game 5 have officiated more to the Over and the Bucks-Celtics series is playing at a slightly faster pace than the playoff average.

However, both teams are elite defensively and both have a below-average free-throw attempt rate for this postseason.

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Milwaukee Bucks at Boston Celtics Game 2 odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Milwaukee Bucks at Boston Celtics odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Milwaukee Bucks (1-0) are back at TD Garden Tuesday to take on the Boston Celtics (0-1) in Game 2 of the Eastern Conference semifinals. Tip-off is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET (TNT). Below, we look at the Bucks vs. Celtics odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Bucks superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo did everything to lead the charge in Game 1 with 24 points, 13 rebounds, 12 assists and 2 blocks. He kept his composure during his worst shooting night of the playoffs, just 9 of 25 (36%). PG Jrue Holiday led all scorers with 25 points and added 9 rebounds, 5 assists and 3 steals.

Boston laid an all-around egg in Game 1, shooting just 33.3% from the floor. They did drill 18 3-pointers, which was 10 fewer than their total makes on the night. PF Jayson Tatum had 21 points on 4 of 9 from distance, 6 rebounds and 6 assists.

Bucks vs. Celtics odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:39 a.m. ET.

Money line: Bucks +155 (bet $100 to win $155) | Celtics -190 (bet $190 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Bucks +4.5 (-107) | Celtics -4.5 (-115)
Over/Under (O/U): 215.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)

Bucks vs. Celtics key injuries

Bucks

G Khris Middleton (knee) out

Celtics

G Marcus Smart (quadriceps) questionable

[tipico]

Bucks vs. Celtics picks and predictions

Prediction

Celtics 115, Bucks 112

Money line

The Celtics have to counterpunch to salvage one at home, but we’re not willing to throw -190 on it. PASS.

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Against the spread

Defensive Player of the Year G Marcus Smart took a couple of shots to his quadriceps, which has him questionable for this one. There’s little chance it will keep him out, but it could hinder his mobility. The Celtics had the best defense in the league largely due to Smart’s perimeter suffocation. The Celtics will also need to clean the boards better after Milwaukee had 4 players with 9 boards in Game 1.

Tatum takes this game over, but G Jaylen Brown has to support him better than 12 points on 4-of-13 shooting. The Bucks are just 1-7 ATS in the last 8 meetings with Boston, but I can’t see laying 4.5 points, and I can’t see Boston dropping both at home. Take the BUCKS +4.5 (-107). You might want to act quickly, though, as the spread figures to come down with 58% of the cash and tickets on Milwaukee this morning.

Over/Under

The Over is 8-2 in the last 10 with one of those Unders hitting in Game 1. In fact, this number would have hit in the last 9 aside from Game 1. Celtics C Al Horford has quietly shot 54.2% from 3-point range in the playoffs. Look for him to continue stretching the defense to open holes for Brown and Tatum to drive. Milwaukee blew Boston away in fast-break points at 28-8. That will be another emphasis when backup PG Derrick White enters the game.

The Bucks were a plus-23 when Giannis was on the floor for 38 minutes in Game 1. The Celtics will try to get him into foul trouble and exploit C Brook Lopez, who was a minus-10. Long story short, Boston will be much better offensively, so let’s LEAN OVER 215.5 (-108).

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Milwaukee Bucks at Boston Celtics Game 1 odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Sunday’s Milwaukee Bucks at Boston Celtics odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Milwaukee Bucks visit TD Garden Sunday to take on the Boston Celtics in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference semifinals. Tip-off is scheduled for 1 p.m. ET (ABC). Below, we look at the Bucks vs. Celtics odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

The Bucks are coming into their second-round series after defeating the No. 6-seeded Chicago Bulls in 5 games. Milwaukee covered the last 3, failing to cover the first 2 at home as double-digit favorites.

Unfortunately for Milwaukee, it will be without its second-leading scorer, G Khris Middleton. He averaged just 14.5 points per game against Chicago, but has been a vital piece of the Bucks this season.

As for Boston, it swept the F Kevin Durant-led Brooklyn Nets. F Jayson Tatum turned into an all-out superstar on the national stage, averaging 29.5 points per game.

The Celtics were 3-1 against the spread (ATS) versus the Nets, entering as underdogs in their 2 road matches. They’ve covered 7 of their last 8. Boston is 48-37-1 ATS on the season.

Bucks vs. Celtics odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:44 a.m. ET.

Money line: Bucks +155 (bet $100 to win $155) | Celtics -190 (bet $190 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Bucks +4.5 (-108) | Celtics -4.5 (-112)
Over/Under (O/U): 217.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)

Bucks vs. Celtics key injuries

Bucks

G Khris Middleton (knee) out

Celtics

None

[tipico]

Bucks vs. Celtics picks and predictions

Prediction

Celtics 108, Bucks 103

Money line

PASS.

I like the Celtics at home, especially with the Bucks down Middleton. However -190 is too pricey for me to suggest betting on them to win outright.

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Against the spread

LEAN to the CELTICS -4.5 (-108).

This is a very small play, if any at all. I like the Celtics size with C Robert Williams.

Milwaukee is going to be a far more formidable side defensively, ending the first round with the league’s best defensive rating. The Bulls struggled offensively, not breaking 100 points in 3 of the 5 games.

That’s where the Celtics, led by two bonafide stars in Tatum and F Jaylen Brown, should differ, especially without Middleton, a defensive mastermind, on the court.

The Bucks were the third-worst team in the NBA at covering as road underdogs at just 4-9 ATS.

Without Middleton, I think they come up short, but it’s certainly just a fractional unit as this is a reasonable large spread for 2 quality teams. It should be a great game and series.

Over/Under

BET the UNDER 217.5 (-112).

In the first round, these teams combined to go 1-8 O/U. That trend should continue, especially given Milwaukee’s length defensively.

They’ll likely put G Jrue Holiday, who has been named to 3 All-Defensive teams, on Brown and give 2-time MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo the assignment of Tatum.

That’s not going to be easy for the Boston stars to deal with, and I expect them to struggle to score. Also, C Al Horford shot 60% from deep in the first round. I would not expect those performances to be repeated.

The Bucks had the league’s best defensive rating in the first round, and the Celtics had the best for the entire season. Combine that with the first-round trends, and I’ll take the Under as my best bet.

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Milwaukee Bucks at Boston Celtics odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Monday’s Milwaukee Bucks at Boston Celtics odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Milwaukee Bucks (18-10) head to Beantown Monday for a 7 p.m. ET game with the Boston Celtics (13-14) at TD Garden. Below, we look at the Bucks vs. Celtics odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions, and bets.

Over its last seven games, Milwaukee is 5-2 straight-up (SU), 2-5 ATS and 4-3 O/U with the seventh-best non-garbage time-efficiency differential, according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG).

The Bucks most recently steamrolled the New York Knicks 112-97 Sunday as 6-point favorites at Madison Square Garden.

Boston lost four of five on its current five-game Western Conference road trip (2-3 ATS) including three straight, falling to the Los Angeles Lakers, Los Angeles Clippers and Phoenix Suns. The Celtics are 14-13 ATS and 11-15-1 O/U with the 13th-ranked efficiency differential.

Bucks at Celtics odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:58 a.m. ET.

Money line: Bucks -120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Celtics +100 (bet $100 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Bucks -1.5 (-110) | Celtics +1.5 (-110)
Over/Under (O/U): 220.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)

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Bucks at Celtics key injuries

Bucks

None

Celtics

PG Marcus Smart (illness) probable
SG Josh Richardson (health and safety protocols) out

Bucks at Celtics odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Celtics 115, Bucks 109

Money line

“LEAN” to the CELTICS (-120) only because they have struggled when playing tougher competition.

The Celtics are 3-6 SU with a minus-5.7 points per 100 possessions and a minus-3.4 ATS margin when playing teams in the top-10 of net rating (according to CTG).

However, Boston is getting All-Star SG Jaylen Brown back from a five-game absence due to a hamstring injury and the Celtics match up well vs. the Bucks.

Both teams play a ton of iso-ball and Boston is a little more efficient offensively in isolation sets and a lot better defensively.

Milwaukee’s defense has the second-worst efficiency vs. iso-ball and Boston’s defensive ranks fifth in efficiency against isolation offense.

The Bucks get out into transition at the fifth-highest rate in the NBA, but the Celtics are fourth in efficiency vs. transition offense. Also, Milwaukee’s offensive efficiency in the fast break only grades in the 31st percentile.

Over the past three seasons, Boston is 19-10-1 ATS with a plus-5.6 ATS margin when playing with a rest advantage.

The Celtics have covered four straight vs. the Bucks, with three outright victories and are 6-1 ATS in their past seven meetings.

I’d argue that these ATS trends apply in this section because the game is priced as a coin flip.

Finally, the oddsmakers opened this game with Boston as a slight favorite before the market instantly started betting Milwaukee’s money line.

I’d assume by tip-off, the House will be rooting for the CELTICS (-120) and, typically, we want to be on the same side as the House in sports betting.

Against the spread

PASS since Boston +1.5 (-110) doesn’t offer much insurance for our Celtics money line wager.

If the Celtics’ spread gets steamed up to +2.5 or greater then I’d wager more on Boston plus the points and “sprinkle” on the Celtics’ money line.

Over/Under

“LEAN” to the OVER 220.5 (-108) because Bucks-Celtics games are typically high scoring – the Over has cashed in six straight meetings.

However, we are getting the worst of the number hence the “lean.” The game opened with a 218.5-point total and was steamed up abruptly. I don’t have a strong enough read on the total to chase value in this spot.

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

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Milwaukee Bucks at Boston Celtics odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Friday’s Milwaukee Bucks at Boston Celtics odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Milwaukee Bucks (6-6) meet the Boston Celtics (5-6) Friday at TD Garden for a 7:30 p.m. ET tip-off. Below, we look at the Bucks vs. 76ers odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions, and bets.

Milwaukee has split its last six games (3-3 against the spread) with the last two being road wins over the New York Knicks Wednesday and Philadelphia 76ers Monday. The Bucks are 6-6 ATS and 3-9 Over/Under (O/U) with the 16th-best net rating in the NBA (plus-0.2).

Boston is also 3-3 overall in its last six games but has covered in four of those contests. The Celtics hammered the Raptors 104-88 as 3-point home favorites Wednesday. Boston is 6-5 ATS and 4-6-1 O/U with the 17th-ranked net rating (minus-0.7).

The Celtics won two of their three regular-season meetings with the Bucks last year and covered all three. In fact, Boston has covered five of its past six games against Milwaukee and the Over has cashed in five straight meetings.

Bucks at Celtics odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:20 a.m. ET.

Money line: Bucks -130 (bet $130 to win $100) | Celtics +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
Against the spread (ATS): Bucks -1.5 (-120) | Celtics +1.5 (-105)
Over/Under (O/U): 213.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)

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Bucks at Celtics key injuries

Bucks

PF Giannis Antetokounmpo (ankle) probable
C Brook Lopez (back) out
SF Khris Middleton (health and safety protocols) out
SG Donte DiVincenzo (ankle) out

Celtics

SF Jaylen Brown (hamstring) questionable

Bucks at Celtics odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Celtics 110, Bucks 106

Money line

GIMME the CELTICS (+105) for 1 unit.

Boston ranks higher in net efficiency than Milwaukee according to a couple of advanced basketball analytic sources including CleaningTheGlass.com and ShotQuality.com. The former doesn’t track garbage time stats, and the latter compares each team’s adjusted shot quality differential.

The Celtics play the third-highest frequency of isolation offense, and Milwaukee allows the second-worst points per possession vs. isolation offense.

Also, Milwaukee gets into transition at the fifth-highest rate but has the third-worst defensive effective field goal shooting, and Boston’s defense is eighth points per possession allowed in transition.

According to CleaningTheGlass.com, a majority of Boston’s field goal attempts come from mid-range jumpers. Well, Milwaukee is 19th in defensive field goal percentage vs. mid-range attempts.

Lastly, a vast majority of the market is betting the Bucks here (according to Pregame.com) so there’s a “fade the public” angle available with our CELTICS (+105).

Against the spread

PASS since the Celtics +1.5 (-105) doesn’t offer much insurance for our Boston money line wager.

However, let’s wait until closer to tip-off before making a bet because if money keeps rolling in on Milwaukee maybe we get a better number with the Celtics. If Boston’s spread goes to +3 or higher then I’d take the Celtics plus the points and perhaps “sprinkle” on Boston’s money line.

Over/Under

PASS with a slight “lean” to the Over 213.5 (-115) since my predicted score surpasses the projected total.

But, this is a “Pros vs. Joe’s” game in the early betting market as more money is on the Under while more bets have been placed on the Over.

Since typically in sports betting it’s wise to follow the money and I don’t have a strong read on the Bucks-Celtics total, I’ll PASS.

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

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Milwaukee Bucks at Boston Celtics odds, picks and prediction

Previewing Wednesday’s Milwaukee Bucks at Boston Celtics NBA betting odds and lines, with basketball picks, tips and predictions.

The 2020-21 NBA regular season tips off for both the Milwaukee Bucks and Boston Celtics at TD Garden. Tip-off is scheduled for 7:35 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze the Bucks-Celtics NBA betting odds and lines, with picks and predictions.

Bucks at Celtics: Betting odds, spread and lines

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 3 p.m. ET.

Money line: Bucks -175 (bet $175 to win $100) | Celtics +145 (bet $100 to win $145)
Against the spread/ATS: Bucks -4.5 (-105) | Celtics +4.5 (-115)
Over/Under: 224.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Bucks at Celtics: Key Injuries

Bucks

PG D.J. Augustin (calf) out

Celtics

PG Kemba Walker (knee) out
SG Romeo Langford (wrist) out
C Tacko Fall (eye) out

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Bucks at Celtics: Odds, betting lines, predictions and picks

Prediction

Bucks 118, Celtics 108

Money line (ML)

PASS. I’m on the Bucks here but see Milwaukee’s loss as more than 10-to-1 favorites to the injury-depleted Brooklyn Nets in the bubble last season as the GOAT example of why you do not bet heavy favorites in regular-season NBA action.

Against the spread (ATS)

The Bucks were 2-1 straight up but only 1-2 ATS against the Celtics last season. Boston has been a young, improving team who’s key contributors are in line to have their best seasons yet.

I gave out my Jayson Tatum Four-Year Pop Theory on the latest episode of SportsbookWire’s Bet Slippin’ Podcast. He is going to be relied upon to step up with SF Gordon Hayward joining the Charlotte Hornets this offseason and with Walker out a little while due to injury.

Tatum will have the full attention of defending MVP and Defensive Player of the Year in Bucks F Giannis Antetokounmpo and that was bad news last season. Against Milwaukee, Tatum averaged 15.7 points per game over the three contests on 33.3% from the field and 31.3% from 3-point range.

Do I think Tatum will play this poorly Wednesday? Not necessarily, but can the Celtics win if Tatum doesn’t give them 25 or more points? No, I don’t think so, and Tatum exceeding 25 points is a major question mark

Also, both teams are integrating new point guards. The Celtics are doing so temporarily with PG Jeff Teague filling in for an injured Kemba and the Bucks invested real assets into having PG Jrue Holiday run in the 1-spot.

Finally, this is the first game the Celtics, or any team for that matter, is playing at home in a crowd-less arena. Boston is considered to have one of the biggest home-court edges in the league and you’d have to think that would be lessened with no fans in the seats.

GIMME BUCKS -4.5 (-105) for 1.5 units, but perhaps wait to see if it comes down to a flat-4 closer to tip-off.

Over/Under (O/U)

While the Bucks led the NBA in defensive efficiency last year, they did so despite allowing the most 3-point attempts per game. The Celtics were 13th in 3-point percentage and fourth in effective field-goal percentage last season.

So, they are getting buckets and the Over is 14-4-1 in the last 19 meetings in Boston but how much does that matter without fans? For that reason, and the market betting the total down from a 226-point opener, I am going to “LEAN” OVER 224.5 (-110) for a quarter-unit.

Want some action on this one? Place a bet at BetMGM now. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Also see:

Boston Celtics take on Giannis, Milwaukee Bucks to start ’20-21 season (Celtics Wire)
NBA predictions: Eastern Conference rankings for 2020-21 (Hoops Hype)

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

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