Tag: browns chiefs game

Anatomy of a Divisional Round win: How Cleveland can use a Belichick plan to manage Mahomes

It might require the perfect game, but the Cleveland Browns sure do have a path to an upset. It starts with Myles Garrett.

Last week in outlining what the Cleveland Browns needed to do to upset the Pittsburgh Steelers I tapped into the film industry. They needed to take some pages from “Varsity Blues,” I argued. They needed to channel Bud Kilmer and “stick to the basics.” They needed to steal from Johnny Moxon and go empty. Of course, getting out to a 14-point lead before most had settled in helps too, but now they face a bigger challenge, and they need to look to the baseball diamond.

They need to channel Don Larsen.

Perfection might be a tough ask, but when you are facing a 14-2 team and the defending Super Bowl Champions pitching a perfect game might be what you have to do. It is a tall order, and as we will see over the next few paragraphs teams have come close and failed to finish the job. But the Browns can take lessons from the teams that have come close over the past year, and put together a plan for victory.

The first prong of the perfection plan? Unleashing Myles Garrett.

(Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports)

If you look back at the Chiefs’ recent and not-so-recent history, teams that came the closest to defeating them had the ability to pressure Patrick Mahomes without relying too heavily on blitzing him. San Francisco in the Super Bowl. The Los Angeles Chargers earlier this season. The ability to generate pressure on the opposing passer while rushing four can be a cheat code, allowing you to keep seven defenders in coverage and giving you a chance to lock down the talented Chiefs receivers.

The 49ers had Nick Bosa and the rest of the imposing San Francisco defensive front. The Chargers had Joey Bosa. While the Browns do not have a Bosa brother of their own, they have Garrett, who was on a potential Defensive Player of the Year path before injuries and a bout with COVID-19 derailed his season. But with Garrett the Browns have the ability to pressure with four and even get to the QB. As they did on this sack of Sam Darnold in Week 16:

Here the Browns get home while rushing four, as Garrett beats the chip from the tight end and rookie left tackle Mekhi Becton. That allows Cleveland to play seven over five in the secondary.

Then there is this example against the Tennessee Titans. Garrett explodes off the edge and gets home due to a combination of burst and athleticism, as he bends the arc around the left tackle. Once again, the Browns have seven over five in the secondary:

Garrett’s pass-rushing ability can be a critical component of Cleveland’s game plan. If he can get home – or at least pressure Mahomes when the Browns rush four – that allows Cleveland to use the numbers to their advantage in the secondary.

Adding to this, Mahomes has been good, not great, when pressured this year. According to charting data from Pro Football Focus (PFF) he has an Adjusted Completion Percentage (ACP) of 64.9% this year, ranking him 16th among qualified passers. That is behind players such as Nick Mullens, Sam Darnold, Gardner Minshew, Baker Mayfield and yes, Cam Newton this season. He also has an NFL Passer Rating of 78.5 when pressured.

When kept clean, Mahomes has an ACP of 81.1%, and an NFL Passer Rating of 121.1.

Pressure will help.

But sometimes you cannot get home. So what then?

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Anatomy of a Divisional Round win: Can Cleveland’s iffy safeties survive Patrick Mahomes?

The Cleveland Browns have given up some big passing plays this season in the downfield game. Does that sound like something the Chiefs do?

I am the last person that Andy Reid and Eric Bieniemy need to turn to for advice.

Reid is a Super Bowl-winning head coach who has crafted one of the NFL’s best offenses, a modern version of the West Coast offense on steroids. Bieniemy has been his right-hand man, putting his own flavor on the offense and as such he is destined to be a head coach sooner rather than later. They have NFL success, rings, championships and accolades.

I’m drinking a caffeine-free diet coke at the moment and listening to “Africa” by Toto.

But if those two football wizards happen to be poking around the internet, they might stumble across this bit of advice I would have for them: When you put together a game plan for this Sunday and the Cleveland Browns, make sure you are looking to attack downfield in the passing game. Wild concept, I know, given that your starting quarterback has broken the mold of quarterback evaluation and can put the football anywhere on the field from any platform, but hear me out on this…

Cleveland has gotten inconsistent safety play this season. That is probably due to the fact that their safeties are more strong safety types than anything else, and when asked to handle half-field or single-high responsibilities, the execution has been lacking. This video highlights some of the instances where the Browns secondary has given up big plays this season:

https://youtu.be/pmUFpGCIr-8

Now, do these route concepts look like plays that the Kansas City Chiefs might already have in the playbook? They should. For example, this breakdown of Mahomes’ game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers highlights some of what the Chiefs do in the downfield passing game, and the play at the 1:35 mark has Tyreek Hill attacking a safety on a deep crossing route:

At the 0:46 mark of this breakdown you’ll see Kansas City running a “stutter-and-go” concept from a reduced split, again attacking the safeties:

This breakdown has more examples of the Chiefs stressing the safeties in the middle of the field with Hill:

The Browns are considered the biggest underdogs this week, at least according to the minds in Las Vegas. Perhaps they’ve been watching the Browns’ safety play this season as well. Expect Reid and Bieniemy to dial up some shot plays early in this game to test the back half of the Cleveland secondary.