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In a 3-round featherweight bout on the main card, Brian Ortega and Diego Lopes meet Saturday at UFC 306 – Riyadh Season Noche UFC at the Sphere in Las Vegas. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC 306: Ortega vs. Lopes odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.
The prelims begin 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPNews/ESPN+, while the main card starts at 10 p.m. ET on pay-per-view.
Records: Ortega (16-3-0) | Lopes (25-6-0)
These 2 fighters were supposed to square off at UFC 303, but while preparing to move up to lightweight, Ortega couldn’t make the cut and the fight was scrapped after it had already started. Instead, Lopes met Dan Ige and won in an epic bout.
Ortega opened his UFC career with a no contest against Mike de la Torre July 26, 2014. It’s been a roller-coaster ride of a decade, as he ripped off 6 straight wins since that no contest, including a 1st-round KO/TKO of Frankie Edgar at UFC 222.
He lost a title bout to Max Holloway at UFC 231 in a TKO – Doctor’s Stoppage, while also falling to Alexander Volkanovski at UFC 266 in the main event. He was knocked out in the 1st round against Yair Rodriguez in the main event July 2022, but bounced back with a 3rd-round submission win against Rodriguez last time out.
Lopes has picked up 4 consecutive victories since a unanimous-decision loss to Movsar Evloev at UFC 288 in his company debut. He has 3 finishes, including a submission and 2 KO/TKOs, with a unanimous-decision win over Ige at UFC 303.
Lopes enters with a 3.5-inch reach advantage, while Ortega holds a slight 4.07-to-3.24 significant strikes landed per minute lead. Lopes is far more accurate, though, landing 62.54% of those strikes, to just 40.39% for the veteran Ortega. Lopez has a 3.68 submission average, too, so it would behoove Ortega not to go to the mat with this guy.
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UFC 306: Ortega vs. Lopes odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:35 p.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Ortega +165 (bet $100 to win $165) | Lopes -200 (bet $200 to win $100)
- Over/Under: 2.5 rounds (Over -125 | Under -105)
- Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +100 | No -135)
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UFC 306: Ortega vs. Lopes picks and predictions
Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)
Lopes (-200) will cost you 2 times your potential return, and that’s just a little too expensive against a wily veteran like Ortega.
If you want action on this fight, roll with LOPES BY TKO/KO, DQ OR SUBMISSION (+150) on the 5-way line for a chance to multiply up. If you want to cut out the submission, betting LOPES BY TKO/KO OR DQ (+250) on the 7-way line can help you make 2½ times your initial wager.
Over/Under (O/U)
NO (-135): WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? is a strong play, as we’re looking for a victory by Lopes via knockout. In fact, playing UNDER 2.5 ROUNDS (-105) is a little cheaper, and it isn’t a bad wager, either.
Ortega has been the distance just twice in his 12 fights at the UFC level, and one of those came in a title bout. For Lopes, he has been the distance just twice in the past 7 fights, so going Under is a good play.
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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
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