UFC 306: Brian Ortega vs. Diego Lopes odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC 306 odds between Brian Ortega vs. Diego Lopes, with MMA picks and predictions.

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In a 3-round featherweight bout on the main card, Brian Ortega and Diego Lopes meet Saturday at UFC 306 – Riyadh Season Noche UFC at the Sphere in Las Vegas. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC 306: Ortega vs. Lopes odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims begin 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPNews/ESPN+, while the main card starts at 10 p.m. ET on pay-per-view.

Records: Ortega (16-3-0) | Lopes (25-6-0)

These 2 fighters were supposed to square off at UFC 303, but while preparing to move up to lightweight, Ortega couldn’t make the cut and the fight was scrapped after it had already started. Instead, Lopes met Dan Ige and won in an epic bout.

Ortega opened his UFC career with a no contest against Mike de la Torre July 26, 2014. It’s been a roller-coaster ride of a decade, as he ripped off 6 straight wins since that no contest, including a 1st-round KO/TKO of Frankie Edgar at UFC 222.

He lost a title bout to Max Holloway at UFC 231 in a TKO – Doctor’s Stoppage, while also falling to Alexander Volkanovski at UFC 266 in the main event. He was knocked out in the 1st round against Yair Rodriguez in the main event July 2022, but bounced back with a 3rd-round submission win against Rodriguez last time out.

Lopes has picked up 4 consecutive victories since a unanimous-decision loss to Movsar Evloev at UFC 288 in his company debut. He has 3 finishes, including a submission and 2 KO/TKOs, with a unanimous-decision win over Ige at UFC 303.

Lopes enters with a 3.5-inch reach advantage, while Ortega holds a slight 4.07-to-3.24 significant strikes landed per minute lead. Lopes is far more accurate, though, landing 62.54% of those strikes, to just 40.39% for the veteran Ortega. Lopez has a 3.68 submission average, too, so it would behoove Ortega not to go to the mat with this guy.

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UFC 306: Ortega vs. Lopes odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:35 p.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Ortega +165 (bet $100 to win $165) | Lopes -200 (bet $200 to win $100)
  • Over/Under: 2.5 rounds (Over -125 | Under -105)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +100 | No -135)

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UFC 306: Ortega vs. Lopes picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

Lopes (-200) will cost you 2 times your potential return, and that’s just a little too expensive against a wily veteran like Ortega.

If you want action on this fight, roll with LOPES BY TKO/KO, DQ OR SUBMISSION (+150) on the 5-way line for a chance to multiply up. If you want to cut out the submission, betting LOPES BY TKO/KO OR DQ (+250) on the 7-way line can help you make 2½ times your initial wager.

Over/Under (O/U)

NO (-135): WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? is a strong play, as we’re looking for a victory by Lopes via knockout. In fact, playing UNDER 2.5 ROUNDS (-105) is a little cheaper, and it isn’t a bad wager, either.

Ortega has been the distance just twice in his 12 fights at the UFC level, and one of those came in a title bout. For Lopes, he has been the distance just twice in the past 7 fights, so going Under is a good play.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter/X. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and us on Facebook.

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UFC 303: Brian Ortega vs. Diego Lopes odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC 303 odds between Brian Ortega vs. Diego Lopes, with MMA picks and predictions.

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In a 3-round lightweight bout on the main card, Brian Ortega and Diego Lopes meet Saturday at UFC 303 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC 303: Ortega vs. Lopes odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The early prelims begin at 6 p.m. ET, and can be viewed on ESPN/ESPN+. The prelims begin 8 p.m. ET, also on ESPN/ESPN+, while the main card starts at 10 p.m. ET on Pay-Per-View.

Records: Ortega (16-3-0) | Lopes (24-6-0)

Ortega avenged a 1st-round KO/TKO to Yair Rodriguez in a fight night main event in July 2022, posting a 3rd-round submission win in late February. It was just Ortega’s 2nd win in the past 5 events, which included title fight losses to Max Holloway and Alexander Volkanovski.

Lopes has 3 straight victories, all by stoppage, including a pair of 1st-round KO/TKO wins against Pat Sabatini and Sodiq Yusuff in his past 2 bouts. The win streak also includes a Round 1 win via submission against Gavin Tucker in Aug. 2023.

Lopes enters this bout with a 3.5-inch reach advantage, and he is also 3 inches taller and 4 years younger than Ortega.

The switch-stance fighter Ortega holds a 4.07-to-3.22 significant strikes landed per minute advantage, although Lopes is far more accurate on those strikes at 62.25% to just 40.39% for Ortega.

Ortega is good in the takedown game, posting a 1.17 average and 27.27% takedown accuracy percentage, but Lopes has a dominant 5.03 submission average.

Watch this card with ESPN+ by signing up here.

UFC 303: Ortega vs. Lopes odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:20 p.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Ortega +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Lopes -150 (bet $150 to win $100)
  • Over/Under: 2.5 rounds (Over +110 | Under -145)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +140 | No -190)

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UFC 303: Ortega vs. Lopes picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

LOPES (-150) is worth a look straight up on the 2-way line, if you just want to declare a winner, and you don’t care how he gets his hand raised.

Ortega (+125) has struggled recently, losing 3 times in the past 5 outings. He just isn’t that accurate with his significant strikes, and Lopes figures to use his tremendous reach advantage to pull Ortega in and out at his discretion, choosing the right time to strike.

If you’re like to go with a method of victory, LOPES BY KO/TKO, DQ OR SUBMISSION (+125) on the 5-way line for plus-money is certainly a nice value.

Over/Under (O/U)

UNDER 2.5 ROUNDS (-145) is a little on the pricey side, but it’s worth a roll of the dice.

When Lopes gets a finish, which is what we’re expecting, he doesn’t fool around. Since a unanimous-decision loss to Movsar Evloev at UFC 288 in his company debut, Lopes has won 3 straight fights via Round 1 finishes.

NO (-190): WILL FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? is a little too expensive for my liking, costing you nearly 2 times your potential return. However, if you were to fold this into a multi-leg parlay, or an SGP, it would be OK.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter/X. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and us on Facebook.

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