The wait is over. On Sunday night, LSU will kick off its 2024 campaign against USC in Las Vegas.
This is a new LSU. The Tigers lost three first-round draft picks on offense, including Heisman-winning QB [autotag]Jayden Daniels[/autotag]. On defense, LSU cleaned house and hired a whole new defensive staff.
But there’s continuity at some spots too, including an offensive line that returns four starters. At QB, [autotag]Garrett Nussmeier[/autotag] takes over the QB1 reigns for the first time, but he’s no stranger to LSU fans after seeing spurts of action the last three years.
Despite the new defensive staff, LSU managed to return the bulk of its defensive production, including star linebacker [autotag]Harold Perkins Jr.[/autotag]
As [autotag]Brian Kelly[/autotag] enters Year 3, his program is firmly in place. There’s a belief this is his most player-led team yet. That confidence has been evident throughout the offseason, but Sunday night will tell us a lot about this team.
Here’s how LSU matches up with USC in every phase of the game.
When LSU is throwing the ball
Again, Nussmeier is no secret. He played as a true freshman in 2021, a little more in 2022 and got the start for LSU in the bowl game last year.
This is his first real test in a game that matters. Nussmeier is working with a receiver group new to their roles too, but there’s little concern about LSU’s pass-catching talent.
Nussmeier’s best trait is the ability to see the field and get the ball out. He doesn’t possess the rushing threat of Daniels, but LSU’s sacks allowed will improve with Nussmeier’s quick trigger.
It helps to be playing behind an offensive line anchored by two potential first-round picks at tackle.
To slow down LSU’s passing attack, USC must find a way to make Nussmeier uncomfortable. [autotag]Will Campbell[/autotag] and [autotag]Emery Jones Jr.[/autotag] don’t plan to let that happen easily.
USC has talent, but it lacks a star pass rusher. Jamil Muhammad had 25 pressures and seven sacks last year, but LSU should be able to handle him off the edge.
The secondary is where USC has the best chance of matching up with LSU. USC landed a slew of proven power conference players on the backend. If LSU’s wide receivers don’t have the breakouts we expect, USC can make things tough on the backend.
For now, LSU has the advantage here.
When LSU is running the ball
Campbell said it earlier this week. LSU is going to come out and run the football.
The Tigers rushing attack was the best in the country last year. Daniels was the headliner, ripping off explosive runs and surpassing the 1,000-yard mark. With Daniels gone, LSU is shifting its approach.
LSU will showcase a more diversified rushing attack. The core principles will remain the same, but more variation is expected.
But it probably doesn’t matter what LSU runs up front. This offensive line is good enough to get push against any defense in the country.
How LSU manages the running back room is something to watch. [autotag]Logan Diggs[/autotag] led the group in yards last year, but he transferred to Ole Miss. Senior [autotag]Josh Williams[/autotag] and sophomore [autotag]Kaleb Jackson[/autotag] should carry most of the load, but we don’t know what to expect.
The reports on Jackson have been positive with LSU OC [autotag]Joe Sloan[/autotag] saying Jackson took a big step this offseason.
New USC DC D’Anton Lynn has his hands full fixing a defense that ranked 103rd in explosive rushing rate last year.
The Trojans have experience at linebacker and should be improved on the interior defensive line, but LSU will rip off some big ones.
Advantage goes to LSU here.
When USC is throwing the ball
USC QB Miller Moss gets the task of replacing No. 1 overall pick Caleb Williams. Hopes are high for Moss given Riley’s history with QBs. When you coach three Heisman winners, elite QB play becomes the expectation.
LSU’s pass defense was one of the worst in the country last year, finishing 125th in EPA/dropback allowed.
I don’t expect Moss to play at a Heisman level, but he’ll get the job done. This matchup comes down to how USC’s young receivers fare against LSU’s young secondary.
LSU is counting on [autotag]Ashton Stamps[/autotag] to step up at corner. Stamps struggled as a true freshman last year, but LSU has been impressed this offseason.
Stamps will have his hands full with a talented USC receiving core. Zechariah Branch has a chance to be one of the top playmakers in the entire sport and USC will try to get him the ball in space on Sunday.
How LSU tackles on the backend could be just as important as how it plays in coverage.
LSU’s defense will be improved this year, but not enough to get the edge on Sunday. We’re giving the advantage to USC’s passing attack here.
When USC is running the ball
USC will need to take some pressure off Moss with the run game, but there are new faces here too.
Workhorse back Marshawn Lloyd is in the NFL as USC turns to Mississippi State transfer Woody Marks. This will be Marks’ fifth meeting with LSU. His best game against the Tigers came last year when he ran it eight times for 75 yards.
USC returns some key pieces on an offensive line that ranked third nationally in yards before contact last year and it’s safe to assume a Riley offense will find a way to create space for its running back.
LSU’s run defense remains a major question. It wasn’t good last year and LSU’s depth at defensive tackle remains untested.
A lot of attention should be on the LSU linebackers here. If the defensive line struggles, can the LBs make plays to mitigate any issues? [autotag]Greg Penn III[/autotag] and [autotag]Harold Perkins Jr.[/autotag] both need big games.
I think LSU will do a good job preventing explosive plays on the ground, but USC will find some down-to-down success. The edge goes to USC’s rushing attack.
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