Brewers Reds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

The Milwaukee Brewers (19-11) and Cincinnati Reds (6-23) continue a 3-game series at Great American Ball Park with a Tuesday contest slated to begin at 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Brewers vs. Reds odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Brewers lead 3-1.

Milwaukee leads the NL Central but has lost 3 consecutive games after dropping the opener of this series 10-5. The 3 setbacks come on the heels of the Brewers going 9-1 across 10 games from April 26-May 6, a stretch in which they posted a .910 OPS. The Brewers’ .706 OPS on the season ranks 9th in MLB.

The sputtering-early Reds posted season highs in hits (14) and home runs (3) in Monday’s 10-5 series opener. Cincinnati is 3-1 over its last 4 games.

Brewers at Reds projected starters

RHP Freddy Peralta vs. RHP Hunter Greene

Peralta (1-1, 5.09 ERA) has clocked a 1.35 WHIP, 3.9 BB/9 and 11.7 K/9 through 23 IP across 5 starts.

Facing the Reds for a second straight start; allowed 3 R on 5 H and 2 BB with 7 K across 5 IP Wednesday.
Has held current Cincy batters to a high-strikeout .656 OPS in past meetings.

Greene (1-4, 8.71 ERA) makes his 6th start. He has a 1.89 WHIP, 4.8 BB/9 and 12.6 K/9 through 20 2/3 IP.

Coming off a nightmare start against these same Brewers with 5 home runs allowed in 2 2/3 IP Thursday.

Brewers at Reds odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated 8 a.m. ET.

Money line: Brewers -220 (bet $220 to win $100) | Reds +175 (bet $100 to win $175)
Run line (RL): Brewers -1.5 (-130) | Reds +1.5 (+105)
Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)

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Brewers at Reds picks and predictions

Prediction

Brewers 5, Reds 3

Money line

The Brewers are a lean, but the juice here is too much to wade through. PASS.

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Run line/Against the spread

Look for Milwaukee to bounce back behind Peralta, a pitcher not as good as the 2.81 ERA posted a year ago but a significant bit better than the surface numbers logged so far in 2022.

Greene is a question mark who exposes the Cincinnati bullpen.

BACK THE BREWERS -1.5 (-130).

Over/Under

The Over hit Monday and has been dominant in recent-schedule trends for both sides.

However, Peralta and an overvalued Milwaukee offense make the UNDER 8.5 (-115) worth a line watch. In this, the year of 60’s-era offensive numbers where no club has an OPS north of .740 (a figure that ranked 20th in 2019), a near even priced 8.5 runs is worth shading on the underside.

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The Milwaukee Brewers (19-10) and Cincinnati Reds (5-23) meet Monday to open a 3-game series at Great American Ball Park. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Brewers vs. Reds odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Brewers lead 3-0 and have outscored the Reds 34-12.

Milwaukee leads the NL Central but is coming off back-to-back losses in Atlanta. The Brewers’ 4.76 runs per game rank second in MLB, but they scored just 2 runs in each of those setbacks against the Braves,

The Reds took 2 of 3 from the Pittsburgh Pirates over the weekend, notching their first series win of 2022. At 3.57 RPG, Cincinnati ranks as a bottom-third offense. The Reds’ 6.39 RPG allowed ranks last.

Brewers at Reds projected starters

RHP Brandon Woodruff vs. RHP Luis Castillo

Woodruff (3-1, 5.18 ERA) is lined up for his sixth start. He has a 1.19 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 11.5 K/9 in 24 1/3 IP.

Facing the Reds for a second straight start: Allowed 3 runs on 4 H (12K) in 4 2/3 IP May 3.
Has struggled in 2 road starts this year, but logged a 2.79 ERA in 23 road starts in 2020-21.

Castillo is coming off the IL (shoulder) for hist first start of 2022. He notched a 3.98 ERA in 187 2/3 IP last season.

Threw 76 pitches in his final Triple-A rehab outing Wednesday.
Has held current Milwaukee batters to a .593 OPS.

Brewers at Reds odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated 8:26 a.m. ET.

Money line: Brewers -180 (bet $180 to win $100) | Reds +145 (bet $100 to win $145)
Run line (RL): Brewers -1.5 (-103) | Reds +1.5 (-117)
Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: +105 | U: -130)

Brewers at Reds picks and predictions

Prediction

Brewers 4, Reds 3

Money line

The Reds are a lean, but with Castillo making his maiden voyage of 2022, PASS and try the run line.

Run line/Against the spread

Milwaukee’s offensive numbers are buoyed by a .349 batting average on balls in play in high-leverage situation.

Cincinnati is at its best against right-handed pitchers, and Castillo is a very good righty who has excelled in his home yard in recent seasons.

Castillo coming off the IL sends this play into conservative territory for me unless a significantly better price on the Reds comes up. CONSIDER A PARTIAL-UNIT PLAY ON CINCINNATI +1.5 (-117).