The Milwaukee Brewers (26-27) play the Cincinnati Reds (28-27) Tuesday in the second game of a three-game set at Great American Ball Park at 6:40 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze the Rockies-Giants MLB betting odds and lines, with picks and best bets.
Series: Cincinnati leads 1-0.
Brewers at Reds: Projected starting pitchers
LHP Brett Anderson vs. RHP Sonny Gray
Anderson: 3-3 with a 4.38 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 5.5 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9 in 39 IP over 8 starts (GS).
- Last start: Win, 18-3, with 6 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 3 K and 2 BB against the St. Louis Cardinals on Sept. 15.
- Career vs. Reds: 3-2 with a 4.88 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 13 K and 13 BB in 31 1/3 IP over 6 GS.
- Career at Great American Ball Park (GABP): 1-1 with a 5.59 ERA, 1.76 WHIP, 5 K and 3 BB in 9 2/3 IP over 2 GS.
Gray: 5-3 with a 3.94 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 11.8 K/9 and 4.1 BB/9 in 45 2/3 IP over 9 GS.
- Last start: Loss, 8-5, with 3 1/3 IP, 6 H, 5 ER, 4 K and 3 BB at the Chicago Cubs on Sept. 10. Gray then went to the 10-day IL for a back injury.
- Career vs. Brewers: 3-2 with a 2.56 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 58 K and 19 BB in 45 2/3 IP over 8 GS.
- Gray has pitched much better at home this season. He is 4-1 with a 3.12 ERA and 1.04 WHIP at GABP compared to a 1-2 record with a 5.03 ERA and 1.63 WHIP on the road.
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Brewers at Reds: Key injuries
(Get the latest injury news here.)
Brewers
- OF Ben Gamel (quadriceps) out
- C Manny Pina (knee) out
Brewers at Reds: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:03 p.m. ET.
Prediction
Reds 4, Brewers 2
Money line (ML)
The Reds (-150) are in the thick of NL playoff hunt, currently seeded seventh out of eight if the playoffs started today, and rolling at the right time. Cincinnati beat Milwaukee 6-3 Monday and have won eight of its last nine.
The Brewers (+135) had a four-game win streak snapped by the Reds and are currently a half game behind the eighth-seeded Philadelphia Phillies. Cincinnati leads the season series 5-3.
Where I give Cincinnati the edge is in the starting pitching matchup. Gray’s slash line vs. current Brewers hitters is a lot better (.178/.240/.267) than Anderson’s against the Reds (.259/.310/.432). Furthermore, Cincinnati is 11-5 against left-handed starters.
TAKE REDS (-150) on a smaller play because the total is the best bet of this game.
New to sports betting? A $75 bet on the Reds pays a $50 profit if they win.
Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
The Reds -1.5 (+135) are just 9-15 on the run line as a home favorite and the Brewers +1.5 (-162) are 8-6 as road dogs. But Milwaukee has the worst RL record in division games at 8-25, five fewer ATS wins than the next closest team.
It might be a little greedy of me but I’m going to put an even smaller bet on REDS -1.5 (+135) because I like the payout. Maybe like $20 to get a $27 profit if Cincinnati wins by 2 or more runs.
Over/Under (O/U)
Both of Gray’s starts against the Brewers this year have gone Over. Plus, the Over is 7-0 in Gray’s last seven starts vs. NL Central opponents.
But the first Gray start that went Over was only by a half-run and both of Anderson’s starts against the Reds went Under the total. Anderson doesn’t have the reputation Gray does, so that’s why the total is as high as it is. Also, the Under is 8-3-1 in the last 12 meetings in Cincinnati.
The UNDER 9 (-110) is the best play in the Brewers-Reds.
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