The Milwaukee Brewers fell by the score of 4-2 in the opening game of their NL Wild Card series against the Los Angeles Dodgers and must win today to extend their season. Game 2 is Thursday with the first pitch set for 10:08 p.m. ET at Dodger Stadium. Below, we analyze the Brewers-Dodgers betting odds and lines, with MLB picks and best bets.
Brewers at Dodgers: Projected starting pitchers
RHP Brandon Woodruff vs. LHP Clayton Kershaw
Woodruff has been strong all season, putting up a 3.05 ERA and 11.1 K/9 in his 13 starts.
- He made seven road starts in 2020, and recorded an outstanding 2.79 ERA along with 48 strikeouts in 38 2/3 innings.
- He took a step forward against left-handed batters this season. While he did get a little help from a .245 BABIP, he whiffed 29.8% of lefty batters, walked just 5.0%, and held them to a .194/.243/.347 line.
Kershaw allowed one earned run or less in seven of his 10 starts on the year and ended the season with a 2.16 ERA across 58 1/3 innings.
- Kershaw made just three starts at home in 2020, compiling a 3.14 ERA and 17:3 K:BB in 14 1/3 innings. Dating back to the beginning of 2019, he has had some issues with the long ball at Dodger Stadium, allowing 23 homers in 117 innings (1.8 HR/9).
- Kershaw’s postseason struggles are well-documented, as his 4.43 ERA is exactly two full runs higher than his 2.43 mark during the regular season. Homers have been the problem there as well, as his 1.4 HR/9 is much higher than his 0.7 HR/9 in the regular season.
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Brewers at Dodgers: Key injuries
(Get the latest injury news here.)
Brewers
- OF Ryan Braun (back) questionable
- C Manny Pina (knee) out
- OF Lorenzo Cain (personal) out
Dodgers
- RP Caleb Ferguson (elbow) out
Brewers at Dodgers: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:35 p.m. ET.
Prediction
Dodgers 4, Brewers 2
Money line (ML)
- Brewers (+200)
- Dodgers (-228)
The Dodgers were 21-9 with a +76 run differential at home this season. They should complete the sweep in Game 2 Thursday night, but this is a pretty steep price to pay against Woodruff. PASS on the money line, and look for value elsewhere.
New to sports betting? A $10.00 bet the Brewers to win would return a profit of $20. It would take a wager of $22.80 on the Dodgers to win in order to net a $10 profit.
Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
- Brewers +1.5 (+115)
- Dodgers -1.5 (-106)
The Dodgers lead the league in wRC+ vs right-handed pitching this season, while the Brewers are 12th in the category against lefties. Kershaw historically hasn’t pitched like an ace in the playoffs, but the narrative surrounding his postseason struggles is overblown, and his performance in 2020 suggests we should expect a strong outing.
Don’t count on the Dodger bats to do their usual amount of damage against Woodruff, but in the end, they look like a good bet to win by multiple runs. Side with the DODGERS -1.5 (-106).
Over/Under (O/U)
- Over 7.5 (100)
- Under 7.5 (-121)
This is a battle of two of the top pitchers in the National League, so don’t expect a lot of offensive fireworks. This sets up as a pretty low-scoring game, and even with the longer odds, the UNDER 7.5 (-121) looks like the side to take.
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