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Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Thursday’s Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

After taking the first three games of the road series, the Milwaukee Brewers (69-46) seek to complete the four-game sweep against the Chicago Cubs (52-64) Thursday afternoon. First pitch for the finale is at 2:20 p.m. ET at Wrigley Field. Let’s analyze the lines around the Brewers vs. Cubs odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Brewers RHP Brandon Woodruff (7-6, 2.23 ERA) makes his 23rd start of the season. He has a league-best 0.89 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 10.5 K/9 through 137 1/3 IP.

  • Woodruff has not won a decision since June 29, and the Brewers have lost five of his last six starts. The Milwaukee offense has scored just two runs or less in four of those games.
  • This will be his fifth start of the year against the Cubs. The Brewers are 3-1 in his previous four starts against them. Woodruff is 2-0 with a 0.72 ERA over 25 innings against them.

Cubs RHP Kyle Hendricks (13-4, 3.68 ERA) makes his 24th start. He has a 1.29 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 6.8 K/9 through 134 2/3 IP.

  • Hendricks leads the league in both wins and hits allowed.
  • He has won 11 straight decisions. The last time he picked up a loss was May 9. That said, the Cubs are 4-4 in his last eight starts.

Brewers at Cubs odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 7:50 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Brewers -220 (bet $220 to win $100) | Cubs +180 (bet $100 to win $180)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Brewers -1.5 (-135) | Cubs +1.5 (+110)
  • Over/Under: 9.5 (O: +105 | U: -130)

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Prediction

Brewers 4, Cubs 3

Money line (ML)

The Brewers have won all three games of the series so far outscoring the Cubs 20-5, and they have won 12 of 15 against them this season. The Brewers are 11-4 in their last 15 games overall.

The Cubs have lost their last seven games overall and 13 of their last 15 games. They have lost nine in a row at Wrigley Field.

Of all the pitchers to have on the mound to end the streak, Hendricks is the guy, but Woodruff has been too good against the Cubs.

Take the BREWERS (-220).

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

The Brewers are 65-50 ATS overall this season, the second-best mark in all of baseball, and they are a league-best 38-18 ATS on the road. In their 12 wins over the Cubs this season, they have failed to cover the spread only once.

The Cubs are 61-55 ATS overall but 26-32 ATS at home. They have failed to cover the spread in their last six games. It is the longest stretch they have gone all season without covering.

Take the CUBS +1.5 (+110).

Over/Under (O/U)

Only four of 12 games between the two teams this season have finished with totals of 10 or more runs.

50% of games at Wrigley Field this season have hit the Over.

Only three of the Brewers’ last 11 games finished with 10 runs or more.

Only four of Hendricks’ last 14 starts and only two of Woodruff’s last nine finished with 10 or more runs.

Take UNDER 9.5 (-130).

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Monday’s Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Milwaukee Brewers (66-46) travel to the Windy City to start a four-game series with the Chicago Cubs (52-61) at Wrigley Field Monday. First pitch is scheduled for 8:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Brewers vs. Cubs odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Milwaukee lost the rubber match of a three-game set against the San Francisco Giants Sunday but is 6-4 over its last 10 games and 13-7 in the previous 20.

Chicago was swept in an interleague set against the crosstown rival Chicago White Sox this past weekend and is just 6-14 over its last 20 games.

Season series: Brewers lead 9-3.

RHP Freddy Peralta is Milwaukee’s projected starter. He is 8-3 with a 2.21 ERA (114 IP, 28 ER), 0.90 WHIP, 3.9 BB/9 and 12.2 K/9 through 20 starts and one relief appearance.

  • Last outing: No-decision with 6 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 2 BB and 9 K in Milwaukee’s 4-2 win over the Pittsburgh Pirates Wednesday.
  • Peralta is 2-0 this season against Chicago with a 2.14 ERA (21 IP, 5 ER), 1.00 WHIP and 3.0 K/BB rate over four starts.
    • vs. Cubs on the current roster (46 PA): 2.31 FIP with a .146 batting average (BA), .222 wOBA, .269 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 41.3 K% and 86.9 mph exit velocity (EV).

RHP Alec Mills is on the mound for the Cubs. He is 5-4 with a 4.41 ERA (69 1/3 IP, 34 ER), 1.44 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 6.5 K/9 through 10 starts and 12 relief appearances.

  • Last outing: Win, 3-2, with 6 IP, 2 ER, 8 H, 2 BB and 3 K at the Colorado Rockies Wednesday.
  • Mills is 0-0 against Milwaukee this season with 3 ER, 5 H, 0 BB and 1 K in one start and three relief outings spanning 8 1/3 IP.
    • vs. Brewers on the current roster (45 PA): 6.11 FIP with a .214 BA, .315 wOBA, .431 xSLG, 11.1 K% and 85.7 mph EV.

Brewers at Cubs odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 11:50 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Brewers -200 (bet $200 to win $100) | Cubs +160 (bet $100 to win $160)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Brewers -1.5 (-120) | Cubs +1.5 (-105)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -130 | U: +105)

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Prediction

Brewers 4, Cubs 1

Money line (ML)

PASS with a slight “lean” toward the Brewers (-200) because Milwaukee is the right side but a little too pricey in this spot.

Peralta is low-key putting up a Cy Young caliber season. He grades in the 85th percentile or better in hard-hit rate and EV, 96th percentile in expected wOBA, 97th percentile in xSLG and 94th percentile in K%.

Peralta’s numbers don’t dip much on the road, either. He has a 2.51 ERA with a 1.07 WHIP and a .573 OPS allowed as a visitor.

I wouldn’t hate risking 1 unit on the Brewers (-200), as in if your typical bet is $100 then wager that on Milwaukee’s money line to earn a $50 profit.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

BET the BREWERS -1.5 (-120) for 1 unit because Milwaukee has the third-best cover rate in divisional matchups at 31-19 ATS.

More importantly, the Cubs have flipped their season into “tank mode” and had a fire sale of assets around the trade deadline. I’m in favor of fading Chicago against a Milwaukee team trending in the other direction.

Since the deadline, the Cubs’ lineup is in the bottom-six of WAR, wRC+, wOBA and hard-hit rate. Also, Chicago’s bullpen is 0-3 with the highest home run per nine-inning rate and the second-worst FIP in MLB over that span.

Over/Under (O/U)

TAKE the UNDER 8.5 (+105) because Milwaukee’s lineup ranks right around Chicago’s in most hitting categories this month and averages fewer than 4 runs per game at Wrigley Field this year.

Furthermore, Mills has the fifth-highest contact rate of any pitcher with a minimum of 60 IP but the Brew Crew’s lineup is below-average in hard-contact and barrel rates so I feel good about Mills’ chances of having a quality start.

On top of that, if Peralta gets roughed up or isn’t dialed in then Milwaukee can resort to its awesome bullpen that ranks sixth in SIERA, ninth in xFIP and sixth in K-BB%.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Saturday’s Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Milwaukee Brewers (2-3) and Chicago Cubs (3-2) will meet in the rubber match of their three-game series Wednesday at 2:20 p.m. ET at Wrigley Field. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Brewers vs. Cubs odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Brandon Woodruff is the projected starting pitcher for the Brewers. In 2020, he went 3-5 with a 3.05 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 11.1 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9 in 73 2/3 IP over 13 starts. Woodruff allowed three earned runs in just four innings in his season debut against the Twins last week, striking out five batters.

RHP Kyle Hendricks is the projected starting pitcher for the Cubs. He also struggled in his first start of the year, allowing three earned runs and seven base runners across three innings.

Last year, Hendricks was outstanding, as he put up a 2.88 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 7.1 K/9 and 0.9 BB/9 in 81 1/3 IP over 12 starts. In 88 career appearances (87 starts) at Wrigley, he owns a 2.58 ERA and 1.03 WHIP.

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Brewers at Cubs odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:30 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Brewers -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Cubs -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Brewers -1.5 (+145) | Cubs +1.5 (-175)
  • Over/Under: 9 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Prediction

Brewers 4, Cubs 3

Money line (ML)

Hendricks has a good matchup, as the Brewers ranked 26th in wRC+ vs RHP in 2020. However, while he has never been a hard thrower, it is at least a little concerning that his four-seamer and sinker were sub-86 MPH in his first start.

The Brewers halted their three-game skid on Tuesday evening, and look to make it two wins in a row as they send their Opening Day starter to the mound.

Woodruff wasn’t at the top of his game last time out but is a good bet to get back on track in this one. With the more dominant starter on the mound, the stronger bullpen, and slightly better odds, the lean is BREWERS -105.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

With Woodruff and Hendricks on the mound, this looks like a game that will be close and low-scoring throughout.

Unfortunately, there doesn’t appear to be much value taking +1.5 runs on either side (Brewers -190, Cubs -185). PASS on the run line, and place your bets elsewhere.

Over/Under (O/U)

The Under is 12-3-2 in Milwaukee’s last 17 road contests, and this sets up as another game that won’t involve a lot of offensive action. Look for both starting pitchers to bounce back from disappointing debuts, and keep this game UNDER 9 (-110) the total.

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Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow @RuddHQ on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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