Brewers Cardinals picks prediction spread over/under betting line

The Milwaukee Brewers (61-51) are in Busch Stadium Sunday for their 3-game series finale with the St. Louis Cardinals (62-51). First pitch is scheduled for 2:15 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Brewers vs. Cardinals odds with MLB picks and predictions.

This is the rubber match of the set. St. Louis won Friday’s series opener 3-1 while Milwaukee bounced back with a 3-2 extra-inning victory Saturday.

Season series: Tied 7-7

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Brewers at Cardinals projected starters

LHP Aaron Ashby vs. RHP Miles Mikolas

Ashby is 2-10 with a 4.32 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 4.3 BB/9 and 10.9 K/9 in 85 1/3 IP over 15 starts and 6 relief appearances.

Last start: Lost 7-5 Saturday at home vs. the Cincinnati Reds with 4 2/3 IP, 4 ER, 3 H, 1 HR, 5 BB and 5 K
2022 vs. the Cardinals: 1 start, a no-decision in Milwaukee’s 6-5 home win April 17 with 4 IP, 3 R, 2 H, 1 HR, 4 BB and 4 K

Mikolas is 8-9 with a 3.50 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9 and 6.9 K/9 in 141 1/3 IP across 23 starts.

Last start: Lost 16-5 Tuesday at the Colorado Rockies with 2 2/3 IP, 10 ER, 14 H, 1 HR, 0 BB and 2 K.
2022 vs. the Brewers: 1-2 with a 4.34 ERA (18 2/3 IP, 9 ER), 16 H, 3 HR, 4 BB and 16 K in 3 starts.

Brewers at Cardinals odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:49 a.m. ET.

Money line (ML): Brewers +122 (bet $100 to win $122) | Cardinals -150 (bet $150 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Brewers +1.5 (-175) | Cardinals -1.5 (+140)
Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -130 | U: +105)

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Brewers at Cardinals picks and predictions

Prediction

Cardinals 6, Brewers 3

Money line

LEAN CARDINALS (-150) only because St. Louis’s RL is a better look. But,Mikolas pitches much better at home and this is an extremely profitable spot for St. Louis.

Mikolas is 4-2 straight up in 11 home starts with a 2.48 ERA (4.59 road ERA), 0.88 WHIP (1.31 road WHIP) and 5.18 K/BB rate (3.19 road K/BB rate).

Also, St. Louis is 8-2 SU as -140 favorites or greater vs. left-handed starters with a plus-27.4% return on investment (ROI) and an average final margin of 5.50-3.50.

However, St. Louis’s RL ROI is better than the SU ROI hence the LEAN CARDINALS (-150). I’d entertain parlaying St. Louis’s ML with another similarly priced favorite for a plus-money payout.

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Run line/Against the spread

BET CARDINALS -1.5 (+140) based on the previous analysis and St. Louis is 7-3 RL with a plus-51.7% ROI as -140 favorites or greater vs. lefties and 9-5 RL vs. the Brewers +1.5 (-175) this season.

Over/Under

PASS.

Cardinals-Brewers is 5-8-1 O/U in 2022 and play more to the Under when both starters are on the bump (17-20 O/U).

But, St. Louis’s lineup rakes left-handed pitching and Milwaukee’s is top-10 in wRC+, wOBA and ISO vs. right-handed pitching, per FanGraphs.

PASS.

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The St. Louis Cardinals (61-50) host the Milwaukee Brewers (60-50) Friday for the start of their 3-game series at Busch Stadium with the 1st pitch scheduled for 8:15 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Brewers vs. Cardinals odds with MLB picks and predictions.

The Cardinals have jumped ahead of the Brewers atop the NL Central by a half-game on the strength of their 8-2 straight up (SU) run over the last 10 games.

Milwaukee, on the other hand, is 4-6 SU in the last 10, but, the Brew Crew won both of an interleague home back-to-back with the Tampa Bay Rays Tuesday-Wednesday.

Season series: Tied 6-6, but St. Louis has a plus-4 run differential in those meetings.

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Brewers at Cardinals projected starters

LHP Eric Lauer vs. LHP Jordan Montgomery

Lauer is 8-3 with a 3.59 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 8.9 K/9 in 112 2/3 IP across 20 starts.

Last start: Win, 5-1, Friday at home vs. the Cincinnati Reds with 7 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 3 BB and 4 K.
2022 vs. the Cardinals: 1-1 with a 5.73 ERA (11 IP, 7 ER), 10 H, 2 HR, 5 H and 6 K in 2 starts.

Montgomery is 4-3 with a 3.53 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 7.4 K/9 in 119 2/3 IP over 22 starts.

Last start: Win, 1-0, at home vs. the New York Yankees Saturday with 5-scoreless IP, 2 H, 1 BB and 1 K.
St. Louis sent CF Harrison Bader to N.Y. for Montgomery at the trade deadline, and Montgomery’s start vs. the Yankees was his 1st as a Cardinal. He did leave after 5 innings with cramping.

Brewers at Cardinals odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:15 p.m. ET.

Money line (ML): Brewers +140 (bet $100 to win $140) | Cardinals -175 (bet $175 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Brewers +1.5 (-155) | Cardinals -1.5 (+125)
Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Brewers at Cardinals picks and predictions

Prediction

Cardinals 8, Brewers 3

Money line

LEAN CARDINALS (-175) only because I’d prefer to lay it with St. Louis’ RL for a plus-money payout.

But, the Cardinals are more productive vs. left-handed pitching than the Brewers (+140), and St. Louis’ lineup has been raking recently.

The Cardinals score more runs per 9 vs. lefties than the Brewers (5.55-3.88) and outrank Milwaukee in wRC+ (124-88), wOBA (.342-.298), ISO (.175-.135) and BB/K rate (0.49-0.39), according to FanGraphs.

Furthermore, St. Louis is 3rd in WAR (4.2), 2nd in both wRC+ (142) and wOBA (.369) and 1st in ISO (.232) over the last 2 weeks, per FanGraphs.

Finally, St. Louis’s ML has been “steamed” from a -145 opener up to the current price, according to Pregame.com.

The CARDINALS (-175) are the right side, but I’m confident enough in St. Louis to take the RL.

Run line/Against the spread

BET CARDINALS -1.5 (+125) based on the analysis above and since St. Louis is 31-24 RL at home and 26-18 RL vs. NL Central foes. Whereas the Brewers are 26-33 RL on the road and 22-31 RL in division games.

The CARDINALS -1.5 (+125) is my favorite look in this game.