The comeback was furious but all for naught. If Dallas made a different decision in the third quarter, it might not have been. | From @KDDrummondNFL
The Dallas Cowboys were terrible for about 50 minutes on Sunday afternoon. The final score reads 28-25, but about one-third through the fourth quarter, Dallas regained possession of the ball trailing by 22 points. They went on a furious rally, outscoring the Baltimore Ravens 19-0 in the period, but it was too little, too late.
The Ravens were able to convert two new sets of downs on the final drive after the Cowboys had cut it to three and from there Baltimore bled out the clock to secure the victory. Three touchdown drives and a converted onside kick made things close, but could things have been even more contested?
The Cowboys bypassed an opportunity to put three points on the board when they were being blown out, and they ended up losing by three points.
During the third quarter, Dallas head coach Mike McCarthy made a safe decision when momentum wasn’t on his team’s side. In retrospect, a different decision may have put the Cowboys in a much better position late in the game.
Trailing 21-6 at the half, the Cowboys defense took the field after the break but still wasn’t able to corral the Ravens’ rushing attack. Derrick Henry raced for 26 of his 151 ground yards and getting into the end zone for a 28-6 lead.
Dallas took the ball back at their 29 with 11:58 remaining in the third quarter and marched into Baltimore territory before the drive bogged down. A Tyler Guyton hold on 1st-and-10 from the Ravens’ 29 effectively killed the drive. On 3rd-and-18, Prescott took a sack for a loss of 11 yards, pushing them back to the Baltimore 48.
Dallas decided to punt and the Ravens started a new drive at their own 11.
Why didn’t Dallas try for a field goal there? Earlier in the game, superstar kicker Brandon Aubrey nailed a 65-yarder with room to spare, kicking from just one-yard shy of the NFL record. Why wouldn’t McCarthy give Aubrey a chance to set the all-time record and inch a little closer?
Sure, at the time the game felt out of reach and the decision was almost assuredly from the perspective of Dallas needing a big play to get back in the game. Kicking the ball deep to pin the Ravens means a turnover gets possession deeper in enemy territory.
But if Dallas had kicked and made the field goal, everything about their fourth-quarter comeback changes. When Dallas scored their first fourth-quarter TD, the game is 28-15 with the extra point try coming.
ESPN’s fourth-down bot says that in as close a call as can be, punting the right choice; but it was an insignificant difference and one that doesn’t take Aubrey into account.
Aubrey definitely has a better than 25% chance of nailing the 67-yard field goal that is listed above, so with consideration for the Dallas talent, that would certainly have a bigger impact on Win Probability than the cookie-cutter wash shown above.
Dallas should’ve sent Aubrey onto the field, and the end of the game may have turned out differently.
