We get a WBC Junior Lightweight title bout between Miguel Berchelt and Oscar Valdez at the MGM Grand Conference Center in Las Vegas tonight. The 12-round fight is scheduled for 9 p.m. ET. Below, we break down the Berchelt-Valdez odds, with boxing picks and predictions.
Berchelt (37-1-1) meets fellow the Mexican Valdez (22-6) in Las Vegas looking to retain his WBC strap. His fight June 27, 2020 against Eleazer Valenzuela in Mexico City was officially ruled a no contest as the fight was not sanctioned by the Mexico City Boxing Commission, much to Berchelt’s dismay. Prior to that he made quick work of Jason Sosa in a four-round knockout on Nov. 2, 2019. Berchelt has registered 37 victories in his career, with 33 by KO/TKO, one by disqualification and just three by decision. His only loss on March 15, 2014 against Luis Eduardo Florez came in a Round 1 knockout in Palenque, Mexico, but he is a completely different fighter from nearly seven years ago.
Valdez (28-0-0) has never lost, and he has picked up 22 fights by way of KO/TKO with six decisions. He posted a TKO in Round 10 over Jayson Velez last time out in this very same venue, and a Round 7 TKO against Adam Lopez at the Cosmopolitan in Vegas prior to that. Four of his past seven fights have ended up going the distance.
Berchelt vs. Valdez: Fight odds
- Miguel Berchelt: -400 (bet $400 to win $100)
- Oscar Valdez: +275 (bet $100 to win $275)
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Berchelt vs. Valdez odds, predictions and picks
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:45 p.m. ET.
Berchelt (-400) will be making his seventh title defense, and this might be the most difficult. Valdez (+275) has yet to taste defeat in his career, and he’ll be a tough out. This fight might get off to a rather slow start, and Valdez will give Berchelt a run for his money.
But by the middle rounds, the bigger Berchelt will start to wear Valdez down. Berchelt is the more powerful fighter with a heavy punch, and he isn’t easy to knock down. He is still very expensive on the 3-way line, costing you four times your potential return.
BERCHELT BY KO/TKO/TECHNICAL DECISION OR DQ (+160) is a much better value, and the only way you lose is if the judges get involved, or obviously if Valdez pulls the upset.
In Round Group Betting 2, target ROUNDS 7-9 (+275) for the fight to be won. If you want a little more wiggle room, in Round Group Betting 4, ROUNDS 7-12 (+150) is a little less risky.
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