In a women’s flyweight bout on Saturday’s main card, Poliana Botelho and Luana Carolina meet at UFC on ESPN 23 – also known as UFC Vegas 25 – at the UFC’s APEX Facility in Las Vegas. The prelims kick off at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN2/ESPN+, with the main card on ESPN2/ESPN+ at 10 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze the UFC on ESPN 23 Botelho vs. Carolina odds and lines, with picks and predictions.
UFC on ESPN 23 Botelho vs. Carolina: Odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:15 a.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Botelho -275 (bet $275 to win $100) | Carolina +230 (bet $100 to win $230)
- Over/Under: 2.5 rounds (Over -300 | Under +240)
- Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -275 | No +210)
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UFC on ESPN 23 Botelho vs. Carolina: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Records: Botelho 8-3 | Carolina 6-2
Fight result (2-way line or money line)
I am really liking the upset opportunity here for CAROLINA (+210). She is an amazing value with a chance to more than double up. Sure, she is coming off a first-round submission loss to Ariane Lipski last time out July 18, 2020. That stings, and she’ll need to do better avoiding the takedown.
However, Botelho limps in with losses in two of her past three fights, and Carolina enjoys a two-inch reach advantage between the two. And Botelho isn’t known for her ground game. In fact, she has never won via submission, while getting tapped out by Cynthia Calvillo three fights ago Nov. 17, 2018.
Carolina also enjoy a 6.29-to-3.00 significant strikes landed per minute advantage.
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Over/Under (O/U)
The odd are overwhelmingly stacked in favor of this fight going the distance, and there is really no value here.
Yes (-275): Will the fight go the distance? is just a little too expensive, and Over 2.5 Rounds (-300) also makes no sense. The submission game is not really part of Botelho’s game, and Carolina will be leery of going to the canvas after getting tapped out last time. And we just haven’t seen a lot of evidence in recent fights which suggests a knockout. This fight is going the distance, but it’s just too expense to risk it.
AVOID, and place a small-unit wager on CAROLINA BY DECISION (+350) for a much better value.
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Want some action on UFC on ESPN 23? Place a bet at BetMGM now. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.
MMA Junkie:
- UFC on ESPN 23 weigh-in results: Two heavy; Reyes vs. Prochazka clear (usatoday.com)
- Photos: UFC on ESPN 23 ceremonial weigh-ins and faceoffs (usatoday.com)
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