A tale of 2 Jays: While Jaylen Brown exceeds expectations, Jayson Tatum struggles

In a season defying expectations of all sorts, Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum are confounding experts in nearly every way possible.

In the NBA, narratives can turn on a dime.

It seems like eons ago that we were collectively certain the Boston Celtics would be mostly treading water against the league’s better teams while doing well against the middle-of-the-pack and cellar-dweller franchises of the league.

In truth, it hasn’t even been a month to see that and many such expectations upended.

The same groupthink that had us all thinking last season’s Celtics would dominate the NBA had many assuming Jaylen Brown would probably be dealt by the end of the season, given how unlikely it was that he’d manage to grow enough as a player to warrant the near-max deal he’d likely garner at the end of the 2019-20 season.

Many believed this was the season Jayson Tatum would take a big step forward, cementing his place among the league’s top players, particularly after word his game had been “de-Kobe-fied” (whatever that means) started circulating.

Fast forward 3.5 weeks and Boston is coming off of the first loss after a 10-game winning streak behind some of the most consistent play of Brown’s career (including several wins over likely playoff teams), while third-year wing Tatum has struggled to put together the sort of leaps in production many had hoped to see this season.


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If nothing else, we should use this state of affairs to acknowledge just how complex things like chemistry and other contexts largely invisible to — or at least difficult to stay aware of — can impact assumptions about players and the teams they populate can have.

The Celtics have, if anything, in recent years been a sterling example of how popular narratives do not always line up with our expected results.

The cascading effects of divergent interests last season has illustrated how too much talent is indeed a thing one can have, if said talent isn’t properly distributed across the roster or able to effectively communicate.

And for at least the second time in his young career, Brown had to watch his stock drop just before a key career juncture due to his team not having the structure to amplify his strengths. Meanwhile, Tatum has yet to consistently attack on offense with the matured approach we instead are seeing from the other half of the so-called Jay Team.

What’s behind the unexpected (at least, by some) success of the former and shortcomings of the latter?

Quite possibly, something as simple as the irregular development curve shown by most rookies, who rarely make jumps in a linear fashion.

It could also simply be the current lack of high-level bigs and Brown’s propensity to guard rangier forwards on one end of the floor and opportunity relatively unmarred by injury on the other to explain the Georgia native’s newfound success.

Many have noted that the vote of confidence Celtics president Danny Ainge granted in signing the fourth-year wing to an extension ahead of restricted free agency may also be a factor. Whatever the cause, Marietta’s favorite son is currently logging 20.1 points via 15 attempts per game on .511 shooting from the floor, easily a career-high.

He’s even raised his 3-point shooting — an early-season source of consternation for Brown — to a healthy 38.9 %, while getting to the line 4.1 times per game and converting 78.4% of them (both career-highs).

Improved guard skills (dribbling and passing) coupled with the athletic ability to change speeds and draw contact, as well as improvements to his court awareness and body control have combined to elevate the former Golden Bear to an early fringe All-Star candidate, according to Yahoo Sports’ Chris Forsberg.

Inconsistent play, poor finishing, and a significant drop in two-point shooting percentages (which, despite improved accuracy and attempts from deep, fail to make up for an equivalent increase of shots closer to the cup) have conversely plagued Tatum’s anticipated breakout season unexpectedly.

To his credit, the Duke product has indeed boosted his reviled deep-two shooting percentages while also diminishing their frequency, instead boosting his attempts from beyond the arc and — in what ought to be a higher-percentage shot — close to the basket.

For Tatum, though, cold nights from the floor (such as a 1-of-18 shooting night he had against the Dallas Mavericks earlier in November) and the worst finishing numbers of his career for shots within three feet of the basket (44.4 % compared to a two-season average of 65.2%) have combined to suggest he’s actually regressing offensively.

At least so far this season.

There’s still plenty of time for both Celtics wings to make changes in their respective situations and, for that matter, for Boston to see its early-season win percentage shrink as they begin the tougher end of a West Coast road trip.

Consequently look to these unanticipated outcomes as a reminder that narratives are just that — incomplete analyses awaiting confirmation or refutation by results.

While the sort of players Boston hopes they have in hand for the long haul tend to exhibit big steps forward in their first three to four seasons, Tatum has time and Brown is showing exactly what the Celtics want to see from someone who recently inked a $115 million-dollar extension (including bonuses).

As to how it comes together and how far it will take the team, only the passage of time can tell.

Is Grant Williams in danger of being pushed out of the rotation?

Boston Celtics rookie forward Grant Williams could see his minutes cut significantly, if not entirely, once Boston becomes fully healthy.

Ever since Enes Kanter’s return to the Boston Celtics’ rotation, one player’s minutes have suffered above all others: rookie forward Grant Williams.

Following the knee injury that Kanter sustained in the season opener against the Philadelphia 76ers, Williams averaged 18.2 minutes per game in six contests, all games that the veteran missed. Yet, the last three games that they’ve both been available has seen Williams average 13.2 minutes per game in two contests and receive a DNP (against the Sacramento Kings).

It was unexpected, perhaps, but the problem has less to do with Kanter and more to do with Williams. Despite being a 6-foot-6 power forward with solid passing ability, Williams doesn’t stretch the floor (he’s 0-14 from three for the season) and has been most productive as a center.

Unfortunately for Williams, Boston has a stable of bigs at their disposal and three — including Kanter — more deserving of minutes because they’re more useful at the center position.

Third-year center Daniel Theis, their starter, combines know-how with the ability to score inside and out as well as protect the rim. Second-year center Robert Williams III is simply an elite shot-blocker who can facilitate as well. Kanter is a skilled low-post scorer that’s one of the few reasons Boston doesn’t have the worst scoring bench in the league.

Looking at Williams’ natural position, potential All-Star Jayson Tatum has played the bulk of his minutes (85%) at power forward while playing a team-high 34.4 minutes per game. While that presents natural issues for giving Williams significant minutes, the other issue is the presence of forward Semi Ojeleye, a player that’s as versatile a defender as Williams and a better scorer too.

Ojeleye has played more than 10 minutes in five games this season and played 21 minutes while Williams recorded his DNP against the Kings. Most importantly, Ojeleye knocked down three 3-pointers against Sacramento.

Boston is shooting 37.0% from three (ranked 7th in the NBA) and knocking down 12.8 threes per game (ranked 12th in the NBA), so their outside shooting isn’t a problem as a whole. However, comparing the usefulness of Williams and Ojeleye, one can see how Celtics head coach Brad Stevens may not give Williams heavy minutes any time soon.

When playmaking forward Gordon Hayward — whose spent 14% of his minutes at power forward — returns, the situation becomes even more murky for the 22nd overall pick.

Boston may very well move Williams to the backend of their rotation for an indefinite period.

It may seem silly to think that Williams’ inability to shoot from deep could keep him from being a bigger rotation piece but he shrinks the floor, making it easier for teams to guard the Celtics inside and force them to be a jump shooting team.

When the rookie is on the floor for Boston, the offense has a rating of 105.8, only besting rookie point guard Carsen Edwards (103.2). For the season, the Celtics have an offensive rating of 112.5 (ranked third in the NBA).

On the flip side, Boston has a defensive rating of 101.9 with Williams on the court, the third-lowest of their team. For comparison, the Celtics have a ranking of 111.5 when Ojeleye is on the court.

That said, Williams’ biggest hope should be that his defense is needed and his 3-point shooting becomes more like what he showed in the preseason — when he shot 41.7% on 3.0 attempts per game — than what he’s shown so far in the regular season.

Moving forward, the amount that Stevens utilizes Williams will be one of the more interesting trends to watch.

*Unless otherwise referenced, stats gathered from Basketball Reference

Celtics-Suns odds: Phoenix given home edge over Boston

Previewing Monday’s Boston Celtics at Phoenix Suns sports betting odds and lines, with NBA matchup analysis, picks and tips.

The Boston Celtics (10-2) visit the Phoenix Suns (7-4) Monday at Talking Stick Resort Arena. Tip-off is scheduled for 9 p.m. ET. We analyze the Celtics-Suns odds and lines, with NBA betting advice and tips around the matchup.


Place a legal sports bet on this NBA action or other games at BetMGM.


Celtics at Suns: Key injuries

Celtics

  • SF Gordon Hayward (hand) out

Suns

  • PG Ty Jerome (ankle) out

Celtics at Suns: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips

NBA odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full set of today’s betting odds. Odds last updated Monday at 2 p.m. ET.

Prediction

Suns 110, Celtics 102

Moneyline (ML)

The SUNS are getting -154 odds at home against the Eastern Conference-leading Celtics. Boston is 5-2 away from home and coming off a 100-99 loss to the Sacramento Kings on Sunday as it heads into the third installment of a five-game road trip. Phoenix is 5-3 at home and coming off of a 128-112 beatdown of the Atlanta Hawks. The Celtics are on the second half of a back-to-back while the Suns have been off since Thursday’s win.

Phoenix has had a well-balanced offense of late with four different leading scorers over its last four games. Boston has had three different point leaders over its last four games. The Suns lead the league with a true shooting percentage of 59.3 as a team. The Celtics rank 15th at 56.2%.

Take the home side for a $6.50 profit on a $10 bet.

Line/Against the Spread (ATS)

The better play Monday is to take the SUNS on the spread of -3.5 (-106). They’ll need to win by just four points against a tired opponent for a $9.43 return on the same $10.

The Suns are 9-2 overall against the spread and 6-2 at home. The Celtics are 6-4 overall and just 3-3 as the road team. Phoenix covers the spread by an average of 8.6 points per game while Boston covers by 4.9 PPG. The Suns rank ninth in the NBA with a pace of 104.38 possession per game. The Celtics are 18th at an average of 101.67. Phoenix will be able to pull away late as the Celts tire out.

Over/Under (O/U)

Due to the aforementioned differentials in pace and the Celtics’ back-to-back situation, take the UNDER 225.5 (-115). The Suns are 6-5 against the O/U and top the projection by 3.7 points per game. The Celtics are 5-7 against the projected totals but top the number by one point per game.

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Former Celtics wing Marquis Daniels injured in car accident

Former Boston Celtics wing Marquis Daniels was injured in an auto accident Saturday night but is expected to be okay.

Boston Celtics wing Marquis Daniels was injured in an automobile accident Saturday night near Birmingham, Ala. and was moved to an area hospital for treatment, according to a report from ESPN.

At present, no further confirmed news is available about his condition.

The 38-year-old Daniels played for the Celtics for three seasons after going undrafted in 2003. He also spent time with the Dallas Mavericks, Indiana Pacers and Milwaukee Bucks in his 10-year NBA career.

As a Celtic, Daniels averaged 4.9 points, two rebounds and 1.3 assists per game. He reached the playoffs — going as far as the NBA Finals — in every season.

The Florida native returned to his alma mater of Auburn — based in Alabama — to receive a Master’s degree while serving as a graduate assistant to the men’s basketball program. He sought to move into coaching roles for the next stage of his career (per AL.com’s Tom Green).

Daniels, who took Auburn to a Sweet 16 NCAA Tournament berth in his time there as a player, had been relishing his return in a mentorship capacity, telling AL.com’s Sam Blum:

Being around college students, being around the college game, being around coaches, the players, they look up to me. It’s good for them to see the road that it’s gonna take to get there. The hard work, the early mornings, the late nights. Understanding that nothing’s given.

Indeed, it’s not, as Daniels’ current situation underscores only too well.

Brandon Marcello of Auburn Undercover reports multiple sources close to the program as saying  the former Tiger “is expected to be OK” (per 247 Sports).

Fingers crossed for a swift recovery.

Tacko Fall leads Red Claws to 3-0 start with 21-point outing

With a flawless night shooting from the floor, Tacko Fall secured the win for the Maine Red Claws.

The Boston Celtics might not have come away from their game with a win Sunday afternoon, but the Maine Red Claws kept right on rolling behind Tacko Fall’s season-high 21 points.

The win, a 129-115 come-from-behind victory over the Raptors 905 (the Toronto Raptors’ G League affiliate), saw the Senegalese center have his most efficient offensive game yet. He went 9-of-9 from the floor with five boards, two blocks and two assists.

He also received the first technical foul of his career.

Struggling for a board with 905 forward Devin Robinson, the pair got a little physical and ended up getting slapped with double techs for their efforts. Fall had little remorse for ruining his unblemished record on the play.

According to the Portland Press Herald’s Glenn Jordan, the UCF product said:

I’m the biggest guy on the floor. I’m going to play like it. So if you’re going to come at me, be ready, because it’s not going to go your way.

Tacko has truly become more comfortable using his body  and his length in recent games and tonight’s tilt against the comparatively small Raptors 905 roster — who have no players taller than 6’8” or weighing more than 220 pounds — was no exception.

In fact, it was fatigue as much as anything that impacted Fall’s game the most, forcing the big man to sit late after expending most of his dominating the interior energy.

Boston’s other two-way signee, rookie floor general Tremont Waters, had a good night as well, logging a season-high of his own with 11 assists and eight points.

“I knew I had to get in there and pass it out to my teammates,” Water said. “They were making shots. That was our game plan. Get in the paint and kick it out.

Boston’s sole lottery pick, swingman Romeo Langford, was assigned to Maine but did not play while recuperating from a sprained ankle sustained in Friday night’s victory over the Fort Wayne Mad Ants.

Despite being down his services (and stretches of ugly play), the Claws were able to come away with the win.

The Red Claws (3-0) join the Memphis Hustle (4-0) as the two remaining G League teams without a loss. They next face the Raptors 905 at home in Canada on Wednesday, Nov. 17.

LeBron James drops 33 and 12 dimes to push Lakers to NBA-best 11-2

LeBron James was dominant and the Los Angeles Lakers now have the best record in the NBA after winning their fourth straight game.

The Los Angeles Lakers looked great in white on Sunday as they wasted no time imposing their will against second year dynamo Trae Young and the Atlanta Hawks. LeBron James was dominant in all areas, finishing with 33 points and 12 assists, as well as six 3-pointers and 0 turnovers, leading the Lakers to a dominant win 122-101 over Atlanta. The Lakers led by as many as 30 points in the victory.

Sunday’s win was their fourth straight and with the Lakers at 11-2, they now own the best record in the NBA after the Boston Celtics lost to the Sacramento Kings earlier Sunday. Anthony Davis was mostly quiet offensively but he did provide some great blocked shots while Rajon Rondo had his best individual performance in his first four games with 15 points. Kyle Kuzma also had 17 points and five rebounds off the bench, including a sweet alley-oop finish off an assist from LeBron James.

Starting in place of the injured Avery Bradley, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope once again performed well as the team’s starting shooting guard while Danny Green did his usual solid job across the board and threw in a highlight dunk to add to what was a special night for the Lakers in an another easy home win.

Trae Young still got loose to score 31 points, but the Hawks scoring totals were more of a result of the game’s pace being a slightly faster pace than the Lakers are used to playing than it was a reflection of the Lakers team defense. They were solid once again and they forced 16 Hawks turnovers in the win.

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Celtics’ 10-game win streak snapped by Kings as Marcus Smart misses buzzer-beater

The Boston Celtics got off to another slow start but this time the Sacramento Kings made them pay.

After winning 10 consecutive games, the Boston Celtics have had their winning streak snapped by the Sacramento Kings after falling 99-100 is a game that was closely fought throughout with 24 lead changes.

Unfortunately for the Celtics, All-Star hopeful Jayson Tatum would only tally four points through the first three quarters (he finished with 14) while the Kings — missing point guard De’Aaron Fox — were carried by Kings guard Buddy Hield’s 35 points.

Further, after going down 30-18 by the start of second quarter, Boston faced an uphill battle against Sacramento and continued a troubling trend that should be monitored throughout the season.

For all the improvements to team chemistry and the play of particular players, if the Celtics don’t get off to better starts then their chances of manifesting their full potential takes a substantial hit. A primary catalyst for their first half woes is that their bench unit is one of the least threatening in the league, averaging 27.3 points per game (28th in the NBA, per NBA Advanced Stats). In the first quarter, the second unit is averaging a mediocre 4.6 points per game.

Considering that Sacramento went on a 14-4 run   that extended into the opening minutes of the second quarter with three minutes left in the first quarter, a significant portion of the blame for their underwhelming start can be attributed to the bench unit staying true to form in the first quarter.

Nonetheless, the Kings made it difficult for Boston to score inside while Bogdan Bogdanovic (10 assists) made smart decisions with the ball in his hands, effectively quarterbacking Sacramento’s offense.

For Boston, Kemba Walker and Marcus Smart would both tally nine assists, continuing to be great facilitators, but while Walker went 7-16 from the field in a game that he was efficient in throughout, Smart went 2-16 from the field (and 1-8 from three) and missed the potential game-winner on a shot that rattled around the rim.

There wasn’t much positive to take away from the Celtics’ performance other than Walker was efficient from start to finish and wing Jaylen Brown delivered another strong performance with a team-high 18 points (including 4-7 shooting from three), eight rebounds and two steals.

Tacko Fall making an immediate impact playing for the Red Claws

Tacko Fall is already dominating the paint for the Celtics’ NBA G League affiliate.

Tacko Fall is turning heads in Portland and not just because of his height.

Of course, it’s almost impossible to talk about the big man without the conversation turning to that impossible-to-ignore big man’s prodigious vertical airspace but it is what made his presence in the NBA as a two way player for the Boston Celtics possible in the first place.

Now that the NBA G League season has begun in earnest, he’ll be spending most of his time in Maine with the Celtics’ G League affiliate, the Maine Red Claws, and he’s already having a massive impact on their young season.

What’s even more impressive is he’s not just using that extraordinary altitude to leave a mark on games.

“It’s so much easier playing with someone who is literally standing at the rim and can block pretty much everything,” said teammate and fellow Boston two way player Tremont Waters via MassLive’s Tom Westerholm. “There’s no sneaky quick finishes that other guards can get off [be]cause he is 7-7.”

In his home debut for the Red Claws against the Fort Wayne Mad Ants on Friday, Fall logged a double-double with 16 points, 13 rebounds, and 6 blocks, bodying opponents out of the paint as much as he used his preternatural length to deter smaller players (read: everyone) from venturing anywhere near the cup.

Red Claws head coach Darren Erman also related how the Senegalian’s immense gravity warps the very flow of the game, making him more of an effective weapon than in his early Celtics appearances, where his comparatively slow footspeed makes him more of a novelty, at least at this point.

“Whenever Tacko is in the game, we know that people are pretty much going to play him,” he offered. “And if they don’t, we’re going to just give him the ball.”

This certainly hasn’t done anything to kill the anticipation local crowds have for seeing the UCF product on the court.

Chants of “We Want Tacko!” begin well before tip-off, and continue until he checks into the game. It’s enough to be something of a distraction, one Fall has learned to live with.

“It’s not easy, it’s hard,” said the former Golden Knight. “But once I get out on the court and I just pretty much get locked in. I try not to get distracted. Outside of that, it’s really hard. But once I’m on the court and I’m going up and down, I just want to play.”

There will be no shortage of playing time for the former Knight in Portland, and it’s almost certain he’ll burn through every minute of the 45 days his two way contract allows him to spend with the parent club as well.

While Fall doesn’t appear ready for Celtics head coach Brad Stevens’ rotation yet, it’s not inconceivable he develops his game enough to get some real burn in the event of a big man injury or two. To that point, several Boston bigs have already spent some time recuperating from early-season issues that have kept them out of games.

For now, it seems, those who want to get their Tacko fix in person will need to make the trip to Maine.

However, for those of you who aren’t up for the four-hour round trip from the greater Boston area, you can see Fall in every home game the team plays this season on NBC Sports, who will stream the tilts for your viewing pleasure (per Boston.com’s Chad Finn).

Injury report: Robert Williams III is still on the mend as he nurses a sore ankle

The Boston Celtics may be best served by holding Robert Williams III out against the Sacramento Kings on Sunday.

According to the Boston Celtics’ injury report, second-year center Robert Williams III has been listed as questionable against the Sacramento Kings on Sunday as he continues to nurse a sore right ankle.

After missing a contest against the Washington Wizards on Wednesday due to his ankle injury, Williams was nearly held out of Boston’s last game — a narrow victory over the Golden State Warriors — because of the same injury. Though he would suit up, he would play just 10 minutes — the second-fewest minutes of any player from either side — as he continued to deal with ankle soreness.

After Boston’s victory, Celtics head coach Brad Stevens would say that “[Williams] was available but kind of with an asterisk” (per The Athletic’s Jay King).

In the grand scheme, Boston will have bigger fish to fry than the Kings, who sit at 4-7 and are at the bottom of the Western Conference standings. While every game presents players and the team with a chance to improve, the best ability is availability and by taking precautions against aggravating his ankle injury, Williams could ensure that he’s able to stay on the court for a longer stretch down the line.

The big man is averaging 5.2 points (on 77.8% shooting from the field), 4.9 rebounds, 2.0 assists and 1.4 blocks in 15.3 minutes per game this season, all career-highs.

Jaylen Brown honors fallen best friend Trevor Steede with his 22-point outing vs. Dubs

Boston Celtics wing Jaylen Brown played against the Golden State Warriors with a heavy heart, devoting the performance to his best friend Trevor Steede.

For Boston Celtics swingman Jaylen Brown, Friday night’s game was no ordinary evening.

It wasn’t because it was against a franchise that’s beat up on opponents for the better part of five years (and the Celtics have fared comparatively well against that team — the Golden State Warriors — anyways).

Nor was it because the team is riding an NBA-best 10-game winning streak atop the league’s best record, either. For Brown, it was personal.

Two years ago, Jaylen faced the same team on the road, just hours removed from the death of his best friend, Trevor Steede.

Steed, who befriended Brown when he transferred into the former’s school to play basketball (possibly stealing Steede’s spot on their school’s roster), tragically took his own life ahead of that Dubs matchup two years past.

“It was hard getting my thoughts together, but after talking to his mom and his family, they inspired me to come out and play,” explained the Georgia native after that game.

“I wasn’t in any shape to come out. I didn’t want to leave my room. But they inspired me to come out and play. And I came out and played in his spirit today. My teammates held me up and we pulled it out.”

After two rotations around the sun, Steed’s memory remains with Brown and carried him through one of the uglier tilt’s of Boston’s young season.

“I had all the confidence in the world today,” Brown offered (via NBC Sports Boston’s A. Sherrod Blakeley) after last night’s victory. “Today is the sunset of my best friend.”

Brown, at times, seemed bullet-proof to the chaos churning around him, pointing to the sky, presumably in Trevor’s memory, when he scored 22 points. Incidentally, Steede’s age when he passed and, odder still, the jersey number he wore for the team Brown likely forced his cut from.

“It was great for me to be able to score 22 points tonight,” Brown added, hinting at the connection.

Brown also left a commemorative message on his sneakers for Steede, reading “R.I.P. TLS”.

For Brown, being able to pull out a win on the anniversary of one of his most difficult games of his career must have been heartening, and a great way to honor his friend.

Teammate Marcus Smart, no stranger to loss himself, recognizes the importance of holding those we have lost close to our heart in the present.

“If you don’t talk about them out loud, that’s when they really die,” he told the Boston Globe’s Adam Himmelsbach last year, soon after his mother Camelia’s passing. “So I just try to talk about her as much as I can, talk to her when I’m alone, and just never forget that she’s always here in spirit and always here in my heart.”

Perhaps Steede was there with the fourth-year guard as well, smiling when Brown pointed to the heavens as he helped will the Celtics to a win.

But it was his memory that truly mattered last night, at least for Jaylen.