Tag: Boston Celtics vs. Milwaukee Bucks predictions pick betting line spread

The No. 3 seed Milwaukee Bucks (3-2) try to advance to the conference finals when they host the no. 2 seed Boston Celtics (2-3) for Game 6 of the Eastern Conference semifinals. Tip-off at the Fiserv Forum is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN). Below, we look at the Celtics vs. Bucks odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Milwaukee rallied from a 9-point deficit heading into the fourth quarter of Game 5 to stun the Celtics with a 110-107 victory in Boston.

Bucks’ all-world defensive PG Jrue Holiday made 2 phenomenal defensive plays in the final minute vs. Celtics PG Marcus Smart to swing the tide of Game 5.

Bucks’ 2-time MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo had another legacy game, scoring a game-high 40 points on 59.3% shooting with a game-high 11 rebounds.

These teams are tied 2-2-1 against the spread (ATS) in this series and the total is 2-3 Over/Under (O/U).

Celtics at Bucks odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:46 p.m. ET.

• Money line (ML): Celtics +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Bucks -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
• Against the spread: Celtics +1.5 (-112) | Bucks -1.5 (-108)
• Over/Under: 211.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)

Celtics at Bucks key injuries

Celtics

• PF Robert Williams III (knee) questionable

Bucks

• SF Khris Middleton (knee) out

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Celtics at Bucks picks and predictions

Prediction

Bucks 107, Celtics 101

Money line

TAKE the BUCKS (-120) because the Celtics (+100) haven’t been able to stop Giannis yet in this series and Milwaukee’s role players will step up and hit big shots at home.

At the end of the day, Giannis can put the Bucks on his back and all they need to advance is a couple of 3-pointers out of a PF Bobby Portis, SG Pat Connaughton or SG Grayson Allen.

Boston’s lack of a floor general will be the reason it loses this series. Smart has lapses in basketball IQ and tries to do too much at times, which is something Holiday and Milwaukee’s defense can exploit.

We’ve seen the Celtics lose 2 games in this series with the ball in Smart’s hands at the end of regulation. Boston was 26th in clutch net rating during the regular season at minus-9.5. “Clutch” is defined by games within a 5-point margin inside of five minutes to play.

On the other hand, Milwaukee was 2nd in clutch net rating at plus-15.9 in the regular season and has a plus-4.7 net rating in the clutch for this series.

Finally, the Bucks are outperforming the Celtics in ball security and rebounding and those are the areas that gain possessions for teams. Shooting and free-throw attempt rates come and go, but Milwaukee should score more points if it can continue to win the battle for possessions.

BET the BUCKS (-120) to eliminate the Celtics (+100).

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Against the spread

LEAN to the BUCKS -1.5 (-108) because it should cash, but Milwaukee’s ML is only 15 cents on the dollar more expensive so why fuss with a spread?

Over/Under

LEAN UNDER 211.5 (-115) because that appears to be the sharp side since the Over 211.5 (-107) is cheaper. Also, the defensive effort will be maxed out and the pace will probably be slower since this is an elimination game.

But, there’s slight reverse line movement headed south of the total because most of the handle is on the Under (according to Pregame.com and VegasInsider.com) but the Celtics-Bucks total has been lowered from a 212-point opener.

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The No. 3 seed Milwaukee Bucks (2-1) host the No. 2 seed Boston Celtics (1-2) Monday for Game 4 of their Eastern Conference semifinals series at Fiserv Forum. Tip-off is set for 7:30 p.m. ET and the game airs on TNT. Below, we look at the Celtics vs. Bucks odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Milwaukee held off Boston’s fourth-quarter rally for a thrilling 103-101 Game 3 victory Saturday. The Celtics had multiple putback attempts to tie the game at the end of regulation off of Boston PG Marcus Smart‘s missed free throw but failed to convert.

Game 3 was Bucks PF Giannis Antetokounmpo‘s best of the series, scoring a game-high 42 points on 53.3% shooting with 12 rebounds and a game-high 8 assists. Celtics All-Star wing Jayson Tatum scored just 10 points on 21.1% shooting.

Celtics at Bucks odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:30 a.m. ET.

• Money line (ML): Celtics -103 (bet $103 to win $100) | Bucks -117 (bet $117 to win $100)
• Against the spread: Celtics +1.5 (-115) | Bucks -1.5 (-107)
• Over/Under: 211.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)

Celtics at Bucks key injuries

Celtics

• None

Bucks

• SF Khris Middleton (knee) out

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Celtics at Bucks picks and predictions

Prediction

Bucks 109, Celtics 104

Money line

There’s just more value in the BUCKS (-117) because we’ve seen the home team get the benefit of the whistle in these playoffs, role players perform better at home and the NBA is a “make or miss” league.

However, the main reason for the Celtics having a chance to steal Game 3 was their free-throw attempt rate was more than double Milwaukee’s.

The Bucks had a double-digit lead entering the fourth quarter and outperformed the Celtics in 3 of the “four factors”. The free-throw differential should be closer in Game 4 and Milwaukee has an edge in rebounding, ball security and effective field goal shooting.

Typically teams with the best player in the series generally advance in the NBA playoffs and that’s Giannis. The difference-maker in Boston’s first-round series was Tatum neutralizing and even outplaying Brooklyn All-Star wing Kevin Durant.

Tatum isn’t doing that in this series; Giannis’s best performance this postseason was in Game 3. Over the past two postseasons, the Bucks are 12-2 SU at home when Giannis plays and he is averaging 33.2 points on 52.6% shooting and 12.1 rebounds in those games.

TAKE the BUCKS (-117) to win Game 4.

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Against the spread

PASS.

Milwaukee’s ML is only 10 cents on the dollar more expensive than the Bucks -1.5 so there’s no reason to sweat a cover. But, if Milwaukee’s ML goes north of -140 then I’d lay up to -3 with the Bucks.

PASS.

Over/Under

PASS with a “lean” to the Over 211.5 (-112) because the first 3 games of this series have gone Under the total so we are due for a Celtics-Bucks Over.

The Over is pricier so my takeaway is the sportsbooks are trying to entice some Under action and we don’t want to play into the House’s hand.

That said, my prediction isn’t far off the market’s projected score so there’s no value for me in this total.

Bet legally online with a trusted partner: Tipico Sportsbook, Sportsbook Wire’s official sportsbook partner in CO, NJ and soon IA. Bet now!

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Additional NBA sports coverage:
HoopsHype | Celtics Wire | LeBron Wire | Lonzo Wire | Nets Wire | Rockets Wire | Sixers Wire | Thunder Wire | Warriors Wire | Rookie Wire | List Wire

Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).

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The No. 2 seed Boston Celtics (1-1) meet the No. 3 seed Milwaukee Bucks (1-1) Saturday for Game 3 of their Eastern Conference semifinals playoff series at Fiserv Forum. Tip-off is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. ET (ABC). Below, we look at the Celtics vs. Bucks odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Boston bounced back from a double-digit Game 1 loss (101-89) to even the series with a 109-86 blowout victory in Game 2 Tuesday. The Celtics outperformed the Bucks in three of the “four factors” and made a franchise-playoff record 20 3-pointers.

Celtics All-Star wings Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are averaging a combined 46.0 points in this series on 44.9% shooting and 47.4% from 3-point land.

Milwaukee’s 2-time MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo has struggled to find his groove offensively in this series. Giannis has a 39.4% effective field-goal shooting rate (38.5% from the field and 16.7% behind the arc).

The Celtics are 8-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last 9 meetings with the Bucks. The Over/Under is 6-3 in those contests.

Also see: Bet Slippin’ Podcast: NBA conference semifinals Game 3 betting previews

Celtics at Bucks odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at Friday at 11:04 p.m. ET.

• Money line (ML): Celtics +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Bucks -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
• Against the spread: Celtics +1.5 (-107) | Bucks -1.5 (-115)
• Over/Under: 212.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Celtics at Bucks key injuries

Celtics

• PG Marcus Smart (thigh) probable

Bucks

• PG George Hill (abdominal) probable
• SF Khris Middleton (knee) out

[tipico]

Celtics at Bucks picks and predictions

Prediction

Bucks 111, Celtics 106

Money line

GIMME the BUCKS (-130).

They generally respond well to losses and the Celtics are surprisingly bad in tight games.

Milwaukee has the second-best winning rate following losses since the beginning of last season at 118-66 straight up (SU) with a plus-4.8 margin of victory – the Phoenix Suns are first at 135-49 with a plus-6.3 margin.

Boston was 13-22 SU in the “clutch” during the regular season with a minus-9.5 net rating (ranked 26th). “Clutch” is defined by games within a 5-point margin inside of five minutes to play.

On the other hand, the Bucks are 24-17 SU in the “clutch” with a plus-15.9 net rating, ranked 2nd in the NBA during the regular season.

The gap between both teams’ tight-game execution is due to Milwaukee’s 3rd-ranked eFG% in the “clutch” vs. Boston’s 24th-ranked eFG%. A major reason for this is that the Celtics rely on predictable iso-ball with Tatum and Brown down the stretch.

Furthermore, Boston’s supporting players should cool off now that the series is in Milwaukee and the Bucks should get more out of their role players such as C Brook Lopez, C Bobby Portis and SG Wesley Matthews.

Between Milwaukee’s defense, late-game execution and home-court advantage, MILWAUKEE (-130) is my bet to win Game 3.

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Against the spread

PASS since Milwaukee’s ML is only 15 cents on the dollar more expensive than the Bucks -1.5 (-115). So, there’s no reason to sweat a cover here, but I’d bet Milwaukee up to -3 if late money comes in on the Bucks.

Over/Under

LEAN OVER 212.5 (-110).

The first 2 games of this series went Under the total by an average of 24.5 points, so Celtics-Bucks are due for an Over.

Also, the Over has cashed in 7 of the last 10 head-to-head meetings, Boston is 11-8-1 O/U as a road underdog with a plus-5.4 total margin and Milwaukee is 21-19 O/U as a home favorite.

However, more money is on the Under in the betting market, whereas more bets have been placed on the Over, per Pregame.com. Typically, the cash column of the betting splits is the sharp side of the market since professional bettors put up a lot more dough than your average Joe.

Bet legally online with a trusted partner: Tipico Sportsbook, Sportsbook Wire’s official sportsbook partner in CO, NJ and soon IA. Bet now!

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Additional NBA sports coverage:
HoopsHype | Celtics Wire | LeBron Wire | Lonzo Wire | Nets Wire | Rockets Wire | Sixers Wire | Thunder Wire | Warriors Wire | Rookie Wire | List Wire

Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).

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