It is Super Bowl LVIII week, and this means there is only one game for our DFS enjoyment. Fortunately, all the major sites offer single-game (and even partial-game) contests, often referred to as Showdowns.
These contests introduce different strategies compared to regular full-slate DFS contests, so I will break them down for you besides analyzing the individual players in the game.
First up: The Rules
On DK, you are required to put together a six-man roster for $50k or less, and you must use at least one player from each team. In addition, we must identify one of those six players as your “captain.” The captain receives 1.5x of his total output (including potential negative points). This player also costs approximately 1.5x more when you place them in the captain slot, so you have to weigh the value difference between those extra points versus the extra cost.
On FD, they give you more money ($60k) for fewer spots (only five). You still select a Captain (or as they call it an MVP). The biggest difference, however, is your MVP costs the same as your non-MVPs. There is no penalty for putting a player in that slot. This means that you want the top scorer in your lineup in that slot, regardless of his price.
Second: The Usual Strategies
Much like in regular DFS, you can stack correlative players (QB-WR/TE) or (RB-DEF). The key thing to remember, though, is you need to have at least one player from both teams.
If you believe the game will be one-sided, stack your favored QB along with one of his receiving weapons, plus his RB1, and their defense, and then run it back with a passing game weapon of the opposition.
If you believe the game will be high-scoring and close, then you will probably want to do a stack, including both QBs and at least one receiving option for each team. This is the preferred strategy this week.
If you feel both teams will struggle to score, then you should use both defenses and one or both kickers.
Potential lineups for DK
Captain: Travis Kelce ($15.3k)
Roster: Patrick Mahomes ($10.6k), Brock Purdy ($10.0k), George Kittle ($6.4k), Jauan Jennings ($4.0k), Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($3.0k)
This lineup gives you both QBs and the elite tight end for each team. It also gives you two depth WRs who have seen an uptick in usage recently.
Captain: Christian McCaffrey ($18.0k)
Roster: Deebo Samuel ($9.2k), Brock Purdy ($10.0k), George Kittle ($6.4k), Jake Moody ($5.2k), Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($1.2k)
If you believe that the Chiefs’ luck is about to run out and that San Francisco will make this a cakewalk, this lineup gives you exposure to four of the top offensive pieces for San Fran, plus their kicker.
Captain: Rashee Rice ($11.4k)
Roster: Travis Kelce ($10.2k), Patrick Mahomes ($10.6k), Isiah Pacheco ($8.0k), Harrison Butker ($5.0k), Jauan Jennings ($4.0k)
Maybe you believe the Niners are paper tigers on defense. This lineup gives you the top four options for KC (including Mahomes), their kicker, and a lottery ticket WR for SF.
Captain: Isiah Pacheco ($12.0k)
Roster: Christian McCaffrey ($12.0k), Kansas City Defense ($3.4k), Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($3.0k), Travis Kelce ($10.2k), Rashee Rice ($7.6k)
Maybe you believe the Chiefs are going to roll into Arrowhead West and deliver a smackdown of epic proportions. This gives you the Chiefs defense, four top offensive weapons, and the unavoidable McCaffrey.
Captain: Christian McCaffrey ($18.0k)
Roster: Rashee Rice ($7.6k), Deebo Samuel ($9.2k), Isiah Pacheco ($8.0k), George Kittle ($6.4k), Kyle Juszczyk ($0.8k)
Despite the astronomical price, it is hard to envision not using CMC in the Captain position. This gives you that play and fills out the roster with non-QB options for both teams. If you choose to use CMC, this is my favorite build.
Captain: Noah Gray ($2.7k)
Roster: Travis Kelce ($10.2k), Rashee Rice ($7.6k), Brandon Aiyuk ($8.8k), Brock Purdy ($10.0k), Patrick Mahomes ($10.6k)
Unless you go deep diving at the Captain position, it is hard to fit all the stars into your lineup. This puts a reasonable depth piece into that slot and gives you both QBs and three of the top four passing-game weapons in this game.
Captain: George Kittle ($9.6k)
Roster: Brock Purdy ($10.0k), Travis Kelce ($10.2k), Rashee Rice ($7.6k), Deebo Samuel ($9.2k), Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($3.0k)
This will be one of the few ways to get a QB and four of the top receiving options into the lineup. This is my favorite non-CMC play on DK.
Potential lineups for FD
MVP: Patrick Mahomes ($15.0k) or Brock Purdy ($14.5k)
Roster: Travis Kelce ($13.0k), Rashee Rice ($11.0k), George Kittle ($10.0k), Brandon Aiyuk ($10.5k)
Mahomes or Purdy at MVP tied together with two of the top receiving options for each team.
MVP: Christian McCaffrey ($17.5k)
Roster: Patrick Mahomes ($15.0k), Brock Purdy ($14.5k), Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($7.5k), Kyle Juszczyk ($5.5k)
If you want exposure to CMC and both QBs, you need to take some risky backend options.
MVP: Christian McCaffrey ($17.5k)
Roster: Patrick Mahomes ($15.0k) or Brock Purdy ($14.5k), Rashee Rice ($11.0k), Brandon Aiyuk ($10.5k), Noah Gray ($5.5k)
The safer option, if you want exposure to CMC, involves using only one of the QBs. This is my favorite option this week.
MVP: Christian McCaffrey ($17.5k)
Roster: Travis Kelce ($13.0k), George Kittle ($10.0k), Isiah Pacheco ($12.5k), Jauan Jennings ($7.0k)
You could also use CMC and the TEs and skip the QBs.
MVP: Christian McCaffrey ($17.5k)
Roster: Travis Kelce ($13.0k), Deebo Samuel ($11.5k), Brandon Aiyuk ($10.5k), Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($7.5k)
This is another QB-free lineup I like this week.
MVP: Brock Purdy ($14.5k)
Roster: Deebo Samuel ($11.5k), Brandon Aiyuk ($10.5k), George Kittle ($10.0k), Travis Kelce ($13.0k)
This is an SF-leaning stack with Kelce for the Chiefs.
MVP: Patrick Mahomes ($15.0k)
Roster: Travis Kelce ($13.0k), Rashee Rice ($11.0k), Isiah Pacheco ($12.5k), Jauan Jennings ($7.0k)
This one loads up on the Chiefs and runs it back with Jennings.
MVP: Patrick Mahomes ($15.0k)
Roster: Brock Purdy ($14.5k), Travis Kelce ($13.0k), Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($7.5k), Harrison Butker ($9.5k)
Here is a KC-leaning lineup that allows you both QBs.
MVP: Brock Purdy ($14.5k)
Roster: Patrick Mahomes ($15.0k), Deebo Samuel ($11.5k), Brandon Aiyuk ($10.5k), Jauan Jennings ($7.0k)
Here is an SF-leaning lineup that allows you both QBs.
The Game
San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Brock Purdy had an up-and-down Conference Championship round. He had some amazing luck as a probable interception bounced off of the defender into Brandon Aiyuk’s arms. He also looked very Patrick Mahomes-esque, breaking off runs while under pressure. Ultimately, he still finished with an uninspiring 267-1 through the air. That was against the worst pass defense remaining in the playoffs. Now, he is facing an elite pass defense. This feels like a 225-1 game with fewer than 25 rushing yards.
Patrick Mahomes’ ending line versus the Ravens was less than the line posted by Purdy. Of course, Baltimore’s defense is light-years better than Detroit’s. The San Francisco pass defense falls somewhere in between those two extremes. The Niners also suffered shock and awe from Detroit for the first half before their defense seemed to wake up. A slow start by the defense here will be much harder to come back from. Mahomes should finish with 250-2, adding another 30 on the ground.
Christian McCaffrey continues to post galactic numbers. The sites have noticed and priced him somewhere in the Andromeda galaxy. There is no easy way to ignore him here. KC is much worse against the run than the pass. So, San Francisco will get McCaffrey the ball as often as he can handle it. Considering his price, seriously consider using him outside of the captain slot on DK. Elijah Mitchell saw four touches last week. He saved his line with a short TD while filling in for McCaffrey after a brief injury. Playing Mitchell isn’t about chasing another one-off score. It is about hoping that McCaffrey gets injured early and misses significant time. I fully support throwing out a lineup featuring him in this role. Just know that you need this to break perfectly to capture the tremendous reward. Jordan Mason hasn’t seen a touch in the playoffs. You can ignore him. Kyle Juszczyk seldom carries the ball, but he has made several crucial catches during his career. He has been very active in the postseason, recording three or more targets in five of his 13 career playoff games. Make him the last man in your build.
Despite playing while banged up, Isiah Pacheco just workhorsed his way to 82 total yards and a score versus Baltimore. The rushing yards came at an ugly 2.8 average. Surprisingly, both San Francisco and Baltimore rank in the bottom third of the league, allowing an average of 4.3 YPC. Despite this, opposing offenses are rushing the ball on a league-low 36.4% of their snaps versus the Niners. Andy Reid refuses to abandon the run. Over their three playoff contests, the Chiefs have run the ball on 46.5% of their snaps. If they keep this ratio here, Pacheco should have a better stat line. Clyde Edwards-Helaire saw three touches last week. He has proved valuable in the past as a fill-in. Much like Mitchell, consider using him in a lineup if you want coverage for a potential Pacheco injury. Making matters potentially more interesting, the Chiefs designated Jerick McKinnon (hernia) for return from IR this week. McKinnon has been a stud in the Super Bowl in the past. If he is active for the game, he makes a sneaky last-man play.
Both teams are top-heavy among their pass catchers. Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel are both premium WRs. Unfortunately, KC is a terror against the pass. If you have to choose one, go with Deebo. Jauan Jennings was great in the Divisional Round while Samuel was out. He reverted to pumpkin status last week (despite a ridiculous catch). He doesn’t offer enough of a discount to consider seriously. If you want a last-man dart throw, go with Ronnie Bell, Chris Conley (revenge game), or Ray-Ray McCloud instead.
Mahomes trusts Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice. The rest of this receiving corps leaves him pulling his hair out. Fortunately, Marquez Valdes-Scantling seems to have finally remembered how to catch a football. Rice’s price is less than Kelce’s, making him a favorite captain option. MVS is seeing just barely enough targets to keep relevant at his price. Consider him as a pivot from Rice in Chiefs-heavy lineups. Justin Watson and Richie James Jr. are great last-man plays. Kadarius Toney may return this week. He is talented, but you do not want to deal with that likely headache. We also can ignore Mecole Hardman Jr. and Justyn Ross.
George Kittle posted a dud versus Detroit. This game won’t be any easier. He has 11 games of playoff experience, but he has topped 40 yards in only three of them while scoring in just two of those games. With the WRs being strangled by KC’s corners, Kittle could see more targets this week. It still won’t make him a preferred player at his price point.
Twenty-one playoff games, 19 playoff TDs for Travis Kelce. He also has topped 70 receiving yards in 12 straight postseason games. When considering your roster build, you may find that you have to choose between Mahomes and Kelce. I’d go with the TE. Noah Gray has five catches on eight targets over the last two weeks. That usage suggests that Mahomes trusts him more than most of his WRs. His discount price makes him a borderline must-start in any Chiefs-heavy build. Blake Bell saw 43% and 44% snap counts in the first two rounds of the playoffs. Last week, he played only 13% of the snaps. Regardless, he has zero targets in any of the games. We can ignore him.
Since the flip of the calendar, Jake Moody has been shaky on FGs. He is only three out of six during his last three games. The extra points add up, but he is nothing more than a run-back play (and arguably too expensive of one) if you stack the Chiefs.
Meanwhile, Harrison Butker continues to show why he is one of the most reliable kickers in history, ranking second ever in field goal percentage. He should be reliable for a floor of eight points this week, but neither kicker makes a powerful play at their price.
The San Francisco 49ers defense should keep this game close, but you are chasing a Pick 6 if you play them.
The Kansas City Chiefs defense blitzed Lamar Jackson into oblivion last week. Purdy doesn’t have the physical or mental tools to overcome this heat, so it will all fall on the offensive game plan. KC should rack up at least three sacks and pick off Purdy multiple times.
The Player Pool
| Player | DraftKings Captain Salary | DraftKings Regular Salary | FanDuel Salary |
| Christian McCaffrey | $18,000 | $12,000 | $11,000 |
| Patrick Mahomes | $15,900 | $10,600 | $15,000 |
| Travis Kelce | $15,300 | $10,200 | $13,000 |
| Brock Purdy | $15,000 | $10,000 | $14,500 |
| Deebo Samuel | $13,800 | $9,200 | $11,500 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | $13,200 | $8,800 | $10,500 |
| Isiah Pacheco | $12,000 | $8,000 | $12,500 |
| Rashee Rice | $11,400 | $7,600 | $11,000 |
| George Kittle | $9,600 | $6,400 | $10,000 |
| Jake Moody | $7,800 | $5,200 | $9,000 |
| Harrison Butker | $7,500 | $5,000 | $9,500 |
| San Francisco 49ers | $6,600 | $4,400 | $8,500 |
| Jauan Jennings | $6,000 | $4,000 | $7,000 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | $5,100 | $3,400 | $9,000 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | $4,500 | $3,000 | $7,500 |
| Elijah Mitchell | $4,200 | $2,800 | $7,000 |
| Justin Watson | $3,600 | $2,400 | $6,500 |
| Noah Gray | $2,700 | $1,800 | $5,500 |
| Mecole Hardman Jr. | $2,400 | $1,600 | $5,500 |
| Kadarius Toney | $2,100 | $1,400 | $6,000 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | $1,800 | $1,200 | $6,500 |
| Kyle Juszczyk | $1,200 | $900 | $5,500 |
| Jordan Mason | $900 | $600 | $5,000 |
| Richie James Jr. | $600 | $400 | $5,500 |
| Blake Bell | $300 | $200 | $5,000 |
| Chris Conley | $300 | $200 | $5,000 |
| Jerick McKinnon | $300 | $200 | $6,000 |
| Justyn Ross | $300 | $200 | $5,000 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud III | $300 | $200 | $5,500 |
| Ronnie Bell | $300 | $200 | $6,000 |
