The Athletic explored fantasy breakout candidates at each of the offensive skill positions this week. The most recent piece in his series focused on tight ends.
The players, mostly young with high upside, have a chance at exploding on the scene next year. The Athletic mentions the Bears’ Cole Kmet, Dolphins’ Mike Gesicki, Jets’ Chris Herndon, Vikings’ Irv Smith, Broncos’ Noah Fant, Panthers’ Ian Thomas, Cowboys’ Blake Jerwin, Lions’ TJ Hockenson, and Titans’ Jonnu Smith as a few of the possible breakout players at the position.
Bills fans will notice that one name is glaringly absent.
Buffalo’s second-year tight end Dawson Knox did not even earn a mention in this article. Not even an honorable mention.
How could this be?
Let’s explore how Knox might have been overlooked by The Athletic for several reasons. The Bills offense, while it looks to be more explosive this season, is still one that leans toward a conservative philosophy (see: establish-the-run as a part of an offensive gameplan). The team is still searching for consistency out of its passing game.
Knox might be the fourth-best option in the aerial game. The newly acquired Stefon Diggs, along with incumbents John Brown and Cole Beasley, will likely see more targets than Knox next season. In addition, Devin Singletary might see more check-down passes this year, as he enters the season as the top running back for Buffalo this year. Singletary caught one more pass than his fellow rookie counterpart last year while receiving nine fewer targets than Knox.
However, The Athletic should have given Knox some love, at least as a contender with a chance to breakout. Knox did his learning on the fly last year. He wasn’t supposed to command the snaps that he did last year. Ultimately, Knox was thrust into the role after free-agent signee Tyler Kroft was injured early in the offseason. Knox is relatively new to the position, moving to tight end in college. He was a quarterback before that. Thus, he performed admirably while being pushed into the starting lineup. With a year of learning under him, it’s anticipating that the Mississippi product can make a major step forward.
While there are concerns with a finite number of targets in this offense, Knox may actually see more space in the middle of the field with more talent out wide. Look for Knox to garner one-on-one matchups down the seam, which could lead to big plays. Beasley will command the underneath area, while Knox can be a part of a trio (with Brown and Diggs) that stretches the field vertically.
Knox showed his athleticism on multiple occasions as a rookie, making spectacular catches along with bulldozing players to gain yards after the catch. It can’t be ignored that the hands were a bit of an issue last year, but the hope is that experience will help these concerns diminish.
In fact, this makes it seem like leaving Knox off the list is even more quizzical. There’s a shot that he can make a major leap into the top-10 of the fantasy rankings for tight ends. It’s the best-case scenario. Nevertheless, not mentioning him as a breakout candidate feels like an oversight at this point in the offseason.
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