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UFC Vegas 17: Stephen Thompson vs. Geoff Neal odds, picks and prediction

Previewing Saturday’s UFC Vegas 17 fight between Stephen Thompson and Geoff Neal, with MMA betting odds, picks, tips and predictions.

In a welterweight bout in the main event, Stephen Thompson and Geoff Neal meet at UFC Vegas 17 at the UFC’s APEX facility in Las Vegas. The event is also known as UFC Fight Night 183. The prelims kick off at 4 p.m. ET on ESPN+, followed by the main card on ESPN+ at 7 p.m. ET.

Thompson (15-4-1) bounced back from a two-bout losing streak with a unanimous-decision win over Vicente Luque at UFC 244. The two losses for “Wonderboy” were against Anthony Pettis and Darren Till, so there’s no shame in losses to those two. He is just five bouts removed from fighting for the welterweight strap, going 0-1-1 in two tries against Tyron Woodley at UFC 205 and 209.

While 2-3-1 across the past six outings might not look terribly impressive, he has fought a who’s who of the division. Six of his past seven fights have ended up going the distance, with only a second-round knockout loss to Pettis in the main event on March 23, 2019, as the only fight not to involve the judges.

The southpaw Neal (13-2) has registered 6.04 significant strikes landed per minute to 3.93 for Thompson, and he has a 49.77 to 44.34 significant strikes accuracy percentage, too. In addition, Neal has a 0.85 to 0.36 takedown average, and 0.43 to 0.00 submission average. While those statistics are all well and good, Neal doesn’t have nearly the laundry list of impressive opponents as his counterpart.

In fact, only Neal’s first-round knockout of Mike Perry last time out at UFC 245 causes anyone to raise an eyebrow. Outside of Niko Price and Belal Muhammad, his other UFC foes are tomato cans.

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Stephen Thompson vs. Geoff Neal: Betting odds, predictions and picks

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:05 a.m. ET.

THOMPSON (-105) is the play in this one, even though he is listed as a slight ‘dog to Neal (-115). Wonderboy just has the better pedigree and experience against top-notch opponents. That’s not to say Neal isn’t a talented fighter, but his time is not now.

As far as the length of the fight, play YES (+145) ON ‘WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE?’ for a good value. Six of the past seven fights have ended up involving the judges when Thompson is in the octagon. He looks to win the judges with his technical aspects, while Neal will be looking for the big shots to take him down.

But Thompson is experienced and will be able to deflect those big shots and keep his foe at bay. As such, playing THOMPSON ON POINTS (+340) is worth a roll of the dice, too, for a potential triple up and then some.

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UFC Vegas 17: Jose Aldo vs. Marlon Vera odds, picks and prediction

Previewing Saturday’s UFC Vegas 17 fight between Jose Aldo and Marlon Vera, with MMA betting odds, picks, tips and predictions.

In a bantamweight bout on the main card, Jose Aldo and Marlon Vera meet at UFC Vegas 17 at the UFC’s APEX facility in Las Vegas. The event is also known as UFC Fight Night 183. The prelims kick off at 4 p.m. ET on ESPN+, followed by the main card on ESPN+ at 7 p.m. ET.

Aldo (28-7) heads into this one on a three-bout losing skid, falling to belt holder Petr Yan last time out on the UFC 251 card when he was knocked out in the fifth round. Before that, he was the victim of a split-decision loss to Marlon Moraes, who is also on this card, and he fell at UFC 237 by unanimous decision against Alexander Volkanovski.

His last victory was nearly two calendar years ago on Feb. 2, 2019, as he knocked out Renato Moicano. He hopes it’s Groundhog Day here, and he gets the stoppage against his counterpart in this one.

Vera (16-6-1) dropped Sean O’Malley by KO/TKO in the first round on Aug. 15, 2020, at UFC 252, rebounding from a disappointing unanimous-decision setback to Song Yadong in Jacksonville on the Overeem-Harris card.

Lately, the Ecuadorian hasn’t been interested in going long into the night, as six of his past seven fights have ended via stoppage, with four wins by way of KO/TKO, and two submission wins. The only time he lost during the seven-bout span was his decision to Song.

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Jose Aldo vs. Marlon Vera: Betting odds, predictions and picks

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:50 a.m. ET.

ALDO (-150) is a powerhouse who has fought for titles, and he is just too good to lose three in a row, let alone four. This will be the fight where he finally gets back on track and points in the right direction again.

It’s a little surprising that with both of these fighters seeing so many stoppages in recent outings, NO (+145) ON ‘WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE?’ is at plus-money. Take advantage. I also like Aldo on the 7-way line, so take ALDO BY KO/TKO OR DQ (+425) for a potentially big payoff.

You can include the submission on the 5-way line for lesser money back, but it’s a waste since Aldo hasn’t had a submission result since a loss on Nov. 26, 2005, and he hasn’t won by submission since getting an arm triangle since March 18, 2005, at Shooto: Brazil 7 against Luiz de Paula. In addition, UNDER 2.5 ROUNDS (+155) is a good play, too.

If you’re uncertain on a specific winner, but want action in the fight, take KO/TKO/DQ (+200) for the fight finish, and if the fight doesn’t go the distance or end via submission, you win, regardless of the victor.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

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UFC Vegas 17: Michel Pereira vs. Khaos Williams odds, picks and prediction

Previewing Saturday’s UFC Vegas 17 fight between Michel Pereira and Khaos Williams, with MMA betting odds, picks, tips and predictions.

In a welterweight bout on the main card, Michel Pereira and Khaos Williams meet at UFC Vegas 17 at the UFC’s APEX facility in Las Vegas. The event is also known as UFC Fight Night 183. The prelims kick off at 4 p.m. ET on ESPN+, followed by the main card on ESPN+ at 7 p.m. ET.

Pereira (24-11) snapped a two-bout skid last time out with a third-round submission win over Zelim Imadaev, helping to get back on track. So far in four fights at the UFC level, he has won two and lost two.

It’s usually interesting when Pereira hits the octagon, as he has a submission win, a disqualification, a unanimous decision loss and a KO/TKO win. “Demolidor” has 35 career professional fights, with 11 endings by way of KO/TKO (10-1), with eight endings via submission (7-1).

Williams (11-1) is a punching machine, and he will look to use his four-inch reach advantage to keep Pereira at a distance. Williams has a 15.79 significant strikes landed per minute since arriving at the UFC level, but that’s a little misleading.

He knocked out Alex Morono at UFC 247 just 27 seconds into his company debut, and he followed that up with a knockout in just 30 seconds on the Felder-Dos Anjos card against Abdul Razak Alhassan on Nov. 14, 2010, thus the quick turnaround.

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Michel Pereira vs. Khaos Williams: Betting odds, predictions and picks

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:40 a.m. ET.

WILLIAMS (+100) will face his stiffest competition since arriving at the UFC level. Pereira (-120) will be able to dodge Williams and avoid the early blast which Morono and Alhassan were unable to avoid.

Still, Williams has amazing power, and his reach advantage will keep Pereira from being able to get in close and get him to the ground, which is a bit of an unknown for Williams and how he might react.

It’s going a little bit against the grain, as both fights for Williams at the UFC level haven’t even lasted a minute, but Pereira is a veteran. Look for this one to go well into Round 2, so OVER 1.5 ROUNDS (-130) is worth a play.

Still, I am not looking for this one to go the distance. Play WILLIAMS BY KO/TKO, DQ OR SUBMISSION (+155), and if you play WILLIAMS IN ROUND 2 (+650) and WILLIAMS IN ROUND 3 (+1400), it could pay off huge. Yes, you’ll lose one end, but if Khaos wins in either the second or third round you will be well ahead.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

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UFC Vegas 17: Marlon Moraes vs. Rob Font odds, picks and prediction

Previewing Saturday’s UFC Vegas 17 fight between Marlon Moraes and Rob Font, with MMA betting odds, picks, tips and predictions.

In a bantamweight bout on the main card, Marlon Moraes and Rob Font meet at UFC Vegas 17 at the UFC’s APEX facility in Las Vegas. The event is also known as UFC Fight Night 183. The prelims kick off at 4 p.m. ET on ESPN+, followed by the main card on ESPN+ at 7 p.m. ET.

Moraes (23-7-1) is looking to get himself back into the title picture, but he has a ways to go. He had a shot against Henry Cejudo at UFC 238, but he was knocked out in the third round on June 8, 2019, and forced to regroup.

He bounced back with a nice split-decision win over Jose Aldo, who is also on this card, but it’s back to the drawing board after Cory Sandhagen knocked Moraes out just 63 seconds into Round 2 in the main event on Oct. 10, 2020. Five of the past six fights for Moraes have finished inside the distance, with three wins and two losses in those outings.

Font (17-4) heads into this one looking for a third straight win, something he has yet to do since arriving at the UFC level. His past two wins have been by unanimous decision, including his last time out over Ricky Simon on Dec. 7, 2019. The last time he had a stoppage was Jan. 19, 2018, in a knockout in Round 2 against Thomas Almeida. Font enters the octagon with a 4.5-inch reach advantage, as well as a two-inch height advantage.

He also has 5.11 significant strikes landed per minute to just 3.43 for Moraes. In addition, Font leads 1.25 to 0.64 in takedown average, and 0.78 to 0.42 in submission average.

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Marlon Moraes vs. Rob Font: Betting odds, predictions and picks

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:30 a.m. ET.

FONT (+130) is worth a look as a short ‘dog in this one against Moraes (-155) on the 2-way line. He leads all of the key statistics, and he is also a little bit better at deflecting significant strikes, too.

It’s basically a coin-flip situation as far as the distance is concerned. Moraes has been getting plenty of stoppage results, while Font has seen each of his past three go to the judges.

I expect Font to pull off the slight upset, so go with YES (-115) ON ‘WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE?’. In addition, playing OVER 2.5 ROUNDS (-125) is also a safe play, too.

Lastly, it’s a good bet to take ‘FONT BY DECISION’ (+275) for a potential nice payday.

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MMA Junkie:

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

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UFC Vegas 17: Greg Hardy vs. Marcin Tybura odds, picks and prediction

Previewing Saturday’s UFC Vegas 17 fight between Greg Hardy and Marcin Tybura, with MMA betting odds, picks, tips and predictions.

In a heavyweight bout on the main card, Marcin Tybura and Greg Hardy meet at UFC Vegas 17 at the UFC’s APEX facility in Las Vegas. The event is also known as UFC Fight Night 183. The prelims kick off at 4 p.m. ET on ESPN+, followed by the main card on ESPN+ at 7 p.m. ET.

Tybura (20-6) steps into the octagon against Hardy (7-2), the former NFL player, in a battle of titans. The Polish-born MMA fighter isn’t as impressive from a physical standpoint, standing two inches shorter while he also has a 2 1/2-inch reach disadvantage, too.

However, Tybura has been a lot more successful with 50.36 significant strikes accuracy percentage to 49.75 for Hardy, and he has an even bigger lead in takedown average at 1.63 to 0.24. Tybura also has a 47.22 to 33.33 takedown accuracy percentage, too.

Tybura is coming off a unanimous-decision win over Ben Rothwell on Oct. 10, 2020, and each of his past three fights has been unanimous decision victories. He hasn’t won by stoppage since a KO/TKO against Luis Henrique at UFC 209, so it’s been a while. He has been knocked out, though. In fact, each of his past three losses in the past seven fights has come via KO/TKO, and Hardy would like to add to that.

Hardy is a brawler who is coming off a second-round KO/TKO win over Maurice Greene on Halloween. Since arriving at the UFC, he is 4-2-1 across the past seven fights, and he enters with wins in back-to-back fights.

He hasn’t won three straight MMA fights since his pro debut on June 12, 2018 through Sept. 29, 2018. He has never won three in a row at the UFC level, so that bodes well in Tybura’s favor.

Place your legal, online UFC Vegas 17 sports bets in CO, IN, PA, NJ, TN and WV at BetMGM, the King of Sportsbooks. New customer offer. Terms and conditions apply. Bet now!

Marcin Tybura vs. Greg Hardy: Betting odds, predictions and picks

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:10 a.m. ET.

HARDY (-130) is a good bet on the 2-way line as a short favorite, even though he has never won three in a row at the UFC level. He is a brawler, and Tybura is susceptible to the big punch.

As long as Hardy can keep this fight upright and off the mat, which is where Tybura might have an advantage, the former linebacker is going to win. If you want to get even more specific, playing HARDY BY KO/TKO, DQ OR SUBMISSION (+135) is a decent value. However, if he wins via decision, you lose.

Playing NO (-175) ON ‘WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE?’ is also a good play here, as Hardy isn’t usually interested in letting the judges decide his fate. He comes up throwing punches early and often.

Playing UNDER 2.5 ROUNDS (-145) is a little bit cheaper, and should still get you a winning ticket.

To watch the early prelims and prelims, sign up for ESPN+ now.

MMA Junkie:

Follow @JoeWilliamsVI on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

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