In the welterweight main event on Wednesday’s main card, Michael Chiesa and Neil Magny meet at UFC on ESPN+ 46 at the Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. The event is also known as UFC Fight Island 8. The prelims kick off at 9 a.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN+, followed by the main card on ESPN/ESPN+ at noon ET.
Chiesa (17-4) steps into the octagon two inches shorter than his counterpart, and he has a big 4.5-inch reach disadvantage. The southpaw also isn’t quite the same striker as Magny (24-8), who leads 3.96 to 2.07 in the significant strikes landed-per minute department. If Chiesa has an advantage, it’s in the ground game, and he’ll be looking to get this fight to the canvas quickly. He has a 3.84 to 2.63 takedown-average lead, and 51.61 to 45.37 takedown-accuracy advantage. In addition, he is ahead 1.08 to 0.27 in submission average.
Chiesa, a.k.a. “Maverick,” has won three straight bouts since his last loss July 7, 2018, at UFC 226 against Anthony Pettis. He tapped out Carlos Condit at UFC 232 in Round 2, and posted unanimous-decision wins over Diego Sanchez and Rafael Dos Anjos, too. While the past two fights have gone the distance, five of Chiesa’s past seven fights have finished inside the distance.
Magny is also on a three-bout win streak, topping “Ruthless” Robbie Lawler in a unanimous-decision victory Aug. 29, 2020, last time out. Magny also has UD wins over Anthony Rocco Martin and Li Jingliang during the win streak, which started after a KO/TKO loss to Santiago Ponzinibbio in the main event Nov. 17, 2018. Each of Magny’s past three fights have gone the distance, as have five of the past eight. If he has an Achilles’ heel, which Chiesa will be looking to exploit, it’s his work on the mat. He has seven results via submission in his 32 professional bouts, going just 3-4 in those fights.
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Chiesa vs. Magny: Betting odds, predictions and picks
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Monday at 4:46 p.m. ET.
MAGNY (-145) worries me because of his potential for loss via submission, which Chiesa (+120) is particularly good at. But Magny is the play on the 2-way line, especially since he has such a distinct reach advantage, and he’ll be able to keep Chiesa at bay. He’ll use that reach advantage for the knockout. As such, I think MAGNY BY KO/TKO OR DQ (+475) is worth a roll of the dice for a small-unit play on the 7-way line. You’ll want to avoid the 5-way line, which includes the submission, as that’s just not how Magny is going to win.
I also like NO (+125): “WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE?” as a nice value, and UNDER 2.5 ROUNDS (+210) is even more tempting as you can more than double up.
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