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UFC on ESPN+ 37: Marlon Moraes vs. Cory Sandhagen odds, picks and best bets

Previewing Saturday’s UFC on ESPN+ 37 fight between Marlon Moraes and Cory Sandhagen, with MMA betting odds, picks, tips and bets.

In a bantamweight bout in Saturday’s main event, Marlon Moraes and Cory Sandhagen meet at UFC on ESPN+ 37 at the UFC’s Fight Island facility in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. The prelims kick off at 5 p.m. ET on ESPN+, followed by the main card set for 8 p.m. ET on ESPN+.

Moraes (23-6-1) steps into the octagon and he’ll see Sandhagen (12-2) towering over him by five inches along with a three-inch reach advantage. The Brazilian striker bounced back with a split-decision win over Jose Aldo at UFC 245 after falling to Henry Cejudo at UFC 238 in a title fight. If Moraes wants another shot at the strap, he’ll need to polish off Sandhagen. His last fight ended up going the distance, but he has seen four of the past five bouts finish inside the distance with three KO/TKO results (2-1) and a submission victory.

Sandhagen has a 6.95 significant strikes landed per minute to 3.53 for Moraes, and 48.94 to 39.28 significant strikes accuracy-percentage advantage. Sandhagen will be looking to bounce back after a submission loss in 88 seconds to Aljamain Sterling last time out on the UFC 250 card. Prior to that loss, he was on a seven-bout winning streak, including 5-0 to kick off his UFC career. In 14 career fights, Sandhagen has won four fights via KO/TKO with no losses while going 3-1 in four submission results.

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Marlon Moraes vs. Cory Sandhagen betting odds

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 5:57 a.m. ET.

SANDHAGEN (-143) is a sharp play as the moderate favorite, as he is much taller with a big reach advantage. He’ll use both of those attributes to keep Moraes at arm’s length, literally. For a bit of a better value, playing SANDHAGEN BY KO/TKO, DQ or SUBMISSION (+195) is worth a small-unit play, as you can nearly double up if he wins inside the distance.

In addition, playing UNDER 4.5 ROUNDS (-173) is a little on the expensive side, but four of Moraes’ past five fights have finished inside the distance and Sandhagen has finishes in six of his past eight pro fights, including four of six at the UFC level.

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Also see:

UFC on ESPN+ 37 predictions (MMA Junkie)
UFC on ESPN+ 37: 5 burning questions (MMA Junkie)
MMA Junkie – The latest UFC/MMA coverage

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

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UFC on ESPN+ 37: Edson Barboza vs. Makwan Amirkhani odds, picks and best bets

Previewing Saturday’s UFC on ESPN+ 37 fight between Edson Barboza and Makwan Amirkhani, with MMA betting odds, picks, tips and bets.

In a bantamweight bout, Edson Barboza and Makwan Amirkhani meet at UFC on ESPN+ 37 Saturday at the UFC’s Fight Island facility in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. The prelims kick off at 5 p.m. ET on ESPN+, followed by the main card set for 8 p.m. ET on ESPN+.

Barboza (20-9) heads into this one with a three-inch reach advantage over the Finn, and he has a stark 4.08 to 1.55 significant strikes landed per minute difference. Where Amirkhani (16-4) holds an advantage is a 3.45 to 0.46 takedown-average lead and 1.62 to 0.06 submission-average lead. As such, Amirkhani will be trying to get this one to the canvas, while Barboza would prefer a toe-to-toe affair.

Barboza finds himself as the heavy favorite despite the fact he enters on a three-bout losing streak, including split-decision losses to Dan Ige and Paul Felder over the past two. He also has a loss to Justin Gaethje during the three-bout losing skid, but there is no shame falling to those three.

Amirkhani fell to Shane Burgos by knockout at UFC 244, but he bounced back with a submission victory in Round 1 against Danny Henry at UFC 241 in his most recent outing.

Place your legal, online sports bets in CO, IN, NJ and WV at BetMGM, The King of Sportsbooks! Terms and conditions apply. Bet now!

Edson Barboza vs. Makwan Amirkhani betting odds

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 5:37 a.m. ET.

Barboza (-278) heads into this one as a heavy favorite, but you cannot risk nearly three times your potential return, especially on a guy on a three-bout skid. Despite the losing streak, I still like Barboza, but you need to get creative.

My suggestion is to take BARBOZA BY KO/TKO, DQ or SUBMISSION (+115) on the 5-way line, while also playing UNDER 2.5 ROUNDS (-129). The latter is a much better value than taking No (-159): “Will the fight go the distance?” If you want the extra 150 seconds for insurance, you’ll have to pay for it, and it’s just not worth doing.