With the draft and free agency in the rear-view mirror, it is time to start thinking about the 2020 NFL season. As we examine the offenses that are going to see the field next season – at least how we envision them here in May – some trends materialize. First off, there are not really that many “bad” offenses in the league. Even those at the bottom of the list have the potential to be much improved over their 2019 versions. In addition, you could make a case for almost every team on this list to be better than they were a year ago. With the way the game is played these days, and how the field is tilted in favor of the offenses, most units are going to be productive to some degree.
So here is how Touchdown Wire stacks the offenses heading into 2020.
32. Washington Redskins
Points Per Game: 16.6 (32nd out of 32)
Yards Per Game: 274.7 (31st out of 32)
Yards Per Play: 5.0 (26th out of 32)
Between a coaching change and a quarterback change, offensive woes abounded in Washington last season. The Redskins began the year with Case Keenum under center and Jay Gruden calling the plays, but the head coach was gone before Halloween and interim head coach Bill Callahan turned to rookie quarterback Dwayne Haskins, who had his share of bumps along the way.
If there is light at the end of the tunnel, it can be found in a few different ways. Rookie wide receiver Terry McLaurin had a breakout season of his own and looks to be a true offensive weapon, and down the stretch Haskins seemed to be growing into the game. He was making quicker decisions and reads, and showed improvement over his first few outings. Still, this offense seems to be a few players away as the 2020 season approaches.
31. New York Jets
Points Per Game: 17.3 (31st out of 32)
Yards Per Game: 273 (32nd out of 32)
Yards Per Play: 4.6 (32nd out of 32)
There is a case to be made that the Jets, and not the Washington Redskins, should be viewed as the bottom offense heading into the 2020 season. A strong case, in fact. The Jets struggled on the offensive side of the football and any set of numbers – as well as the film – can be used to support such a ranking. But if they can get Sam Darnold healthy for the entire 16-game slate – the passing game was woeful when he was out during a three-game stretch at the start of the season – and newly acquired players such as Mekhi Becton and Denzel Mims can contribute immediately, this offense should be better than its 2019 version.
30. Cincinnati Bengals
Points Per Game: 17.4 (30th out of 32)
Yards Per Game: 323.1 (26th out of 32)
Yards Per Play: 4.9 (28th out of 32)
If you want to bet on a team making a huge improvement on the offensive side of the football from 2019 to 2020, the Cincinnati Bengals might be a safe play. They struggled offensively in 2019, working through two different quarterbacks and missing A.J. Green for the entire season. But 2020 could be different, with Green back in the lineup and first-overall selection Joe Burrow under center.
But until we see that in action, it is hard to move them higher up this list.
29. Chicago Bears
Points Per Game: 17.5 (29th out of 32)
Yards Per Game: 296.8 (29th out of 32)
Yards Per Play: 4.7 (30th out of 32)
This is a quarterback-driven league. And right now, the Chicago Bears have a quarterback dilemma. Rather than take a leap forward in his second season under head coach Matt Nagy, Mitchell Trubisky took a step or two backward, and the Bears’ offense followed. While the organization maintains they have confidence in the rising fourth-year passer, all of their actions indicate they are hedging their bets. The Bears traded for Nick Foles, and declined Trubisky’s fifth-year option. There are pieces in place, especially the talented Allen Robinson at wide receiver, but until the quarterback position is sorted out, questions will remain.
28. Miami Dolphins
Points Per Game: 19.1 (25th out of 32)
Yards Per Game: 310 (27th out of 32)
Yards Per Play: 4.9 (29th out of 32)
Something happened along the way towards “Tanking for Tua” in 2019. Over the final weeks of the season the Miami Dolphins came together under first-year head coach Brian Flores and won three of their final five games, including a Week 17 victory over the New England Patriots on the road that knocked their AFC East rivals out of the second seed in the conference. During that final stretch the Dolphins beat two different playoffs teams, the Patriots and the Philadelphia Eagles.
Looking ahead to their offense in 2019, while there were struggles, this unit also improved down the stretch. They scored 37 points in the victory over the Eagles, 38 in an overtime win over the Bengals and 27 in that season finale. They need to protect the quarterback, and spent a lot of resources on the offensive line, and their offensive fortunes might be tied to a quarterback with an injury history. But the arrow does seem to be trending up.
27. Jacksonville Jaguars
Points Per Game: 18.8 (26th out of 32)
Yards Per Game: 274.7 (19th out of 32)
Yards Per Play: 5.0 (26th out of 32)
The Jacksonville Jaguars seem to be going through somewhat of a rebuilt as the 2020 season beckons, moving on from players like A.J. Bouye and Calais Campbell on the defensive side of the football. They addressed both cornerback and defensive line in the draft, selecting C.J. Henderson and K’Lavon Chaisson in the first round. But offensively, there are questions. Rising second-year passer Gardner Minshew showed that he belonged in the NFL, and D.J. Chark seems to be growing into a solid NFL receiver, but there are some questions about the rest of the offense. Laviska Shenault Jr. might be the modern offensive weapon, but there is still room for improvement on the offensive side of the football.
26. New England Patriots
Points Per Game: 26.3 (7th out of 32)
Yards Per Game: 354 (15th out of 32)
Yards Per Play: 5.2 (22nd out of 32)
Associating the New England Patriots with a bottom offensive unit is not something many are familiar with, but this is a new era in Foxborough. With Tom Brady moving on to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the Patriots are going to test life with Jarrett Stidham at the helm of the offense. This is an offense that, quietly or not, struggled in 2019. Some easy games at the start of the season coupled with a stout defensive unit put the Patriots’ offense in some favorable situations, but as Brady struggled to get on the same page with new faces like N’Keal Harry and Mohamed Sanu, and the offensive line dealt with injuries, the offense could not handle its end of the bargain.
Now, as the Stidham Era begins, it is clear that the offense is not what we are accustomed to seeing.
(As an aside, I’m probably not welcome back home now).
25. Los Angeles Chargers
Points Per Game: 21.1 (21st out of 32)
Yards Per Game: 367.4 (10th out of 32)
Yards Per Play: 5.9 (8th out of 32)
Like the New England Patriots, the Los Angeles Chargers face something of a transition at the quarterback position as the 2020 season looms. Philip Rivers, a mainstay with the organization for over a decade, has moved on to the Indianapolis Colts. Looking to pick up the baton are a pair of quarterbacks, veteran Tyrod Taylor and incoming rookie Justin Herbert. There are weapons around whomever wins the starting job, including Keenan Allen and Mike Williams at wide receiver and tight end Hunter Henry, but whether it is Taylor or Herbert, the Chargers might expect a step back offensively over the next season or so.
24. New York Giants
Points Per Game: 21.3 (19th out of 32)
Yards Per Game: 338.5 (23rd out of 32)
Yards Per Play: 5.4 (20th out of 32)
Daniel Jones took over for Eli Manning early in the 2019 campaign, and in the eyes of many – myself included – he performed much better than expected. Jones was perhaps the ugly duckling of the 2019 draft class, with many evaluators saying he was not worth the first-round selection the Giants used on him. But the young passer seemed to make a smoother transition than most believed he was capable of.
That being said, there are still issues to address for the Giants offense in 2020. Andrew Thomas might be the piece the offensive line is missing, but that remains to be seen. Can Evan Engram finally have the breakout season Giants fans are hoping for? Can Jones himself overcome some turnover issues that plagued him as a rookie? How quickly can the team pick up a new offensive system under incoming offensive coordinator Jason Garrett? The pieces might be in place, but the product is far from complete.