Tag: best ball strategy

Each year, tight ends were consistently a big advantage within the Top-3 – Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews and George Kittle. They were, for a few seasons, the only difference-makers in the position and if you didn’t reach one of them, most drafters just waited until at least Round 6 to draft one, and it would be about Round 11 before all teams had their TE1.

Not anymore.

For tight ends, 2023 was a historic shift. It was well established that rookie tight ends never had fantasy relevancy until their second season at the earliest. But that was all shattered. Kelce and Kittle still delivered but Mark Andrews missed six games.

Sam LaPorta broke all the rules. The Detroit rookie ended as the No. 1 fantasy tight end. Second-year Cardinal Trey McBride was the No. 7 with a furious end to his season. The Bills rookie Dalton Kincaid stepped up to become a fantasy starter by the end of the year.

In 2023, nine tight ends scored over 175 fantasy points. In 2022, there were only four. Tight ends are contributing more fantasy points than ever, and the reality is that no longer is it “Top-3 or forget it.” That increased value for starting fantasy tight ends changed how they are drafted.

Let’s break down where the average best ball draft takes tight ends.

Average draft position for best ball tight ends

First off, this is where the Top-24 tight ends are drafted in the average best ball draft this summer. It’s similar to traditional leagues.

This is a change from 2023, when Travis Kelce was a first-rounder, and Mark Andrews and T.J. Hockenson went in the third or fourth rounds to reward them for their fine 2022 season, but then both would lose much of their season to injury.

The Top-10 last until Round 8 this year, but extended to Round 9 in 2023. The plus for drafters is that there were so many fantasy-relevant tight ends last year that  drafters wait longer before taking them and burn through the Top-10 with two taken in each of Round 5 to Round 8.

As a big proponent of getting an elite tight end on my fantasy team, those Top-3 are much cheaper this year, thanks to higher perceived value from the rest.

Mixing and matching tight ends

Since every week matters, I gave each tight end their average fantasy game score from 2022 to replace any missing games. That changed the order a bit from what actually happened, but nothing dramatic.

Here are the Top-24 once their missed games were replaced.

The bang for the buck was less in 2023, without a dominating No. 1 and No. 2 who had greatly outscored the rest of the position.  That’s why we’re seeing the position not drafted until the third round.

The Top-9 fantasy tight ends were still over 200 PPR points and the difference between the No. 1 and No. 7 were only 33 points. For best ball purposes, consider the above Top-24 and how each did in producing games with 15+ fantasy points.

This is really very telling. In 2022, Kelce produced 13 games with 15+ points and became a fantasy first-rounder.  However, only Mark Andrews and George Kittle managed six of those games that year, and no one else managed more than four. In 2023, the Top-3 all tied with seven each and then nine tight ends turned in at least five such games. That blew away the previous season.

Notable too in this look is that George Kittle showed he is still feast or famine with monster performances balanced by only minor games otherwise.

Getting a Top-8 tight end is an advantage and almost no one ever drafts their second tight end before the eighth one is selected. The same phenomenon happens with fantasy quarterbacks. You just will not get much from your TE2 even when optimal scoring is done in a best ball league.

 Bottom Line

The tight end as a fantasy position subtly underwent significant change in 2023. That elite Top-3 did not distinguish themselves nearly so well from the rest of the pack and the best tight end was a rookie that often was undrafted in many leagues.

It still pays to own a top tight end, same as it is an advantage in any fantasy position. But the payoff isn’t nearly as large as it had been in recent years. And that is reflected in how they are drafted, with the Top-2 gone by Round 4 and then an even two-player drain each round to finish out the ten best fantasy tight ends.

The good news is that you do not have to reach nearly as early to be solid at your tight end. The bad news is that the advantage that is offered has decreased.

The reality in both traditional and best ball leagues is that you mix in running backs and wide receivers early and often throughout your draft. Those positions typically call for at least two and maybe up to four different starters each week. But quarterbacks require just one starter (super flex aside) and that already makes them a unique position because they are the top scorers in almost all fantasy league scoring.

In the “best ball” format, there are no starting decisions. The league software  automatically awards you with the highest-scoring quarterback on your roster for that week.

In traditional league play, owning the highest-scoring quarterback is an advantage, balanced by what you gave up to draft him. In best ball, is it better to draft a top quarterback, or can you make up that difference by owning two of the Top-10 scorers? Where is the bang for your buck? Let’s find out.

Average draft position for best ball quarterbacks

First off, this is when the Top-24 quarterbacks are drafted in the average best ball draft this summer. It’s not any different than traditional leagues. By around Round 8, the first 11 quarterbacks are taken on average.

In a traditional league with point-per-reception scoring, this is roughly what to expect. Last year, the quarterbacks were considered more valuable coming off a season where the Top-3 turned in monster performances. By Round 5, eight quarterbacks were selected with two taken in each of Round 2 to Round 5.

Quarterbacks have been devalued from last year when Patrick Mahomes and Joe Burrow dropped in production and the position had enough newcomers to lower the perceived reliability. For this season, expect to spend a Round 3 or Round 4  pick to reach a Top-4 quarterback. Last year, it cost you a second or a third-rounder.

Just like last year, the Top-15 drafted quarterbacks are gone by Week 9 when everyone has their starter and a few get a high-end QB2 for their teams. Quarterbacks are slightly cheaper this year, so that the Top-8 are gone by Round 6 whereas they were all taken by Round 5 in 2023.

Mixing and matching quarterbacks 

One truism in fantasy football trumps all else – “you have to pick players that match or exceed the expectation of their draft spot.” At the core, no matter what your strategy is, if you do not pick players that at least repay the value you drafted them for, nothing else matters. And yes, some of your players will be injured and ruin everything you tried to accomplish. Welcome to fantasy football.

In best ball leagues, there is a sense that volume overcomes individual talent, meaning that if you wait on a quarterback like so many do, then you just grab a couple of “good” ones, expecting they’ll combine for optimal weekly scores that equate to a “great” quarterback.

Since every week matters, I gave each quarterback their average fantasy game score for any missing games.

Here are the 2023 Top-24 if they had not missed games.

As usual, there is a major advantage to owning a Top-3 quarterback. The slope gets smoother after the first five quarterbacks are taken, meaning that the difference between the No. 8 and the No. 15 quarterbacks is negligible at around one or two points per game.

Combining two or three later round quarterbacks = Top-10 equivalent

No.

It doesn’t. Don’t kid yourself.

Having done the statistical studies in the past, whenever you grab that QB2 in the hopes that he’ll magically line up good and bad weeks with your first drafted quarterback and boost your points significantly is just wrong. Yes, best ball means that you get the optimal score from your position. No, that in no way compensates for a weak QB1. You could collect four or five of the bottom-end quarterbacks and all combined they won’t equal a top quarterback.

The reason a top quarterback is elite is because in most weeks, and maybe nearly all, he’ll generate more fantasy points than a lesser quarterback. There will be a mild bump in total points from the optimal scoring, but it rarely equates to more than 40 or 50 more fantasy points over a season. You’ll see the same bump from combining nearly any two quarterbacks from the Top-20.

The higher scoring your first quarterback proves, the less your second quarterback matters. Almost every week will rely on that top quarterback, and your backup provides little more than a bye week cover. 

There are great reasons to have a highly drafted QB2 – bye weeks, injury coverage, plus the chance he has a surprise big season. But he’s not going to add much to what your QB1 is already going to do.

Laying back and drafting two quarterbacks outside of the Top-5 is a disadvantage at the highest-scoring position. Don’t expect on “optimal scoring” to carry your team of average players. Build an average team, get an average score. Best ball or standard play doesn’t really matter.

There are reasons to own three quarterbacks, but it’s more about covering your bases should one be lost for the season to injury. It doesn’t add many points to your total because you just get one quarterback score, and the deeper you go in the draft, the less likely that quarterback will top the other two.

It makes sense to have a strong set of quarterbacks. But your QB1 is going to do all your heavy lifting… or not.

Bottom Line

The numbers show that your first quarterback will supply the bulk of your weekly best-ball points for the position, and the difference-makers at the top need little more than a bye-week cover.  There just isn’t the bang for the buck in adding an early second quarterback when you snagged yours by the fifth round.

Fantasy football has been previously gripped by the “zero-QB theory.” Sure, you can win with a fantasy team that doesn’t have a top quarterback. But the rest of your team has to deliver more.

Play a few best ball contests and in each, try a different strategy at quarterback with at least one team getting a Top-3. Check your results at the end of the year. While deeper quarterbacks do not distinguish themselves much, those prized top scorers provide an advantage that no other position can provide.

There’s no secret about tight ends. Travis Kelce has been a huge difference-maker for the last five years, and the next four or five are worth starting. But beyond that, the difference from one tight end to the next doesn’t amount to any appreciable difference in fantasy score.

But as we broke down the quarterbacks for best ball purposes, it’s a worthwhile exercise for this lowest-scoring of fantasy positions. Can we draft two earlier tight ends and hope to match what Kelce is cranking out at the top of the rankings? Does it matter when we take any backup, much less match them with an elite tight end?

In the “best ball” format, there are no starting decisions. The league software  automatically awards you with the highest-scoring quarterback on your roster for that week.

Let’s break down where the average best ball draft takes tight ends.

Average draft position for best ball tight ends

First off, this is when the Top-24 tight ends are drafted in the average best ball draft this summer. It’s similar to traditional leagues.

Round	TE	order
1	1
2
3	2
4	3
5
6	4	5	6
7	7
8	8
9	9	10
10	11
11	12	13
12	14	15
13	16	17	18
14	19	20
15	21
16	22	23	24

No surprises. Travis Kelce is an unquestioned first-round pick. Mark Andrews ends up in the third round and T.J. Hockenson is usually gone sometime in the fourth round. In the sixth round, team owners decide to get a Top-6 tight end and draft from the pool of George Kittle, Kyle Pitts, and Dallas Goedert. Occasionally, Kittle goes earlier but Pitts and Goedert remain round six scratch-off tickets.

After that, the trickle continues with far less agreement about which tight end belongs where.

Once the sixth tight end is taken, the remaining options are roughly equal in upside and risk. A few will step up as the annual surprises, a few will be injured or otherwise disappoint, and the rest end up as “just another tight end.”

Mixing and matching tight ends

Since every week matters, I gave each tight end their average fantasy game score from 2022 to replace any missing games. That changed the order a bit from what actually happened, but nothing dramatic.

Here are the Top-24 once their missed games were replaced.

Using the weekly scores from those players, we’ll just call them by their rank to represent that draft order.

First, let’s look at the extremes:

TE No. 1 (308.5) and TE No. 2 (214.8) = 358 best ball points
TE No. 23 (93.7) and TE No. 24 (89.6) = 139.2 best ball points

The reality is that Kelce skews everything. The No. 2 and the No. 3 combined for 299.9 best ball points. When charted, the slope of the line for descending total scores is very steep. Let’s see how combining different tight ends produces varying fantasy points.

Mixing your TE1 and his backup – how many best ball points?

Below shows the “best ball” points for each combination of your first-drafted tight end (in blue) and all the possible second tight ends you could have drafted last year. This assumes no bad picks and the black cells are when the two tight ends had the same bye week.

A second tight end is rarely taken before the first ten are off the board by Round 10. There’s no reason to bulk up your lowest-scoring position at the expense of all the higher-scoring positions. So the below table considers that the backup tight ends are considered starting in Round 10 with the No. 11 tight end drafted.

I’ll also assume that every team has a tight end by Round 12. Anything deeper and you’ve just entirely ignored a scoring position.

The position always skews heavily towards the Top-3 and, in best ball, they remain a big advantage.

TE1 was:	TE  11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24
1	323	319	322	323	326		337	317	317	311	320	317	312	330
2	255	262	259	269	251	245	254	241	244		240	239	239	252
3		246	237	254	261	246	243	241	242	236	229	244	232	223
4	263	259	252	248	249	247			235	236	220	236		222
5	229	237		236	215	222	226	203	205	208	221	206	213	223
6	219	234	218	232	226	209	209	200	206	209	195	211	164	199
7		235	226	226	222	222	204	205	213	190	192	205	192	203
8	225	247	219	229	233	223	224	213	219	207	216	216	208	208
9	223	220		229	212	207	216	200	198	186	201	200	199	207
10		226	214	225	223	217	207	195	201	181	193	184	188	195
11		215	201	216	214	186	202	196	196	189	189	190	194	185
12			201			201	220	196	190	178		186	190	194

This is interesting and very telling about the realities of best ball scoring. In traditional league scoring, you can drive yourself crazy trying to pick the right middle-tier tight end every week. In best ball, you always have the optimal lineup.

But – the impact is surprising. The numbers will vary up and down when pairing two tight ends together because they are two unique sets of 17 games matching up. The need to grab your second tight end doesn’t appear to be much of a rush. Travis Kelce was so dominating last year, that you only lost seven best-ball points between using the No. 11 and No. 24 ranked tight ends as his backup. You only lost three points with the No. 2 going with the No. 24 instead of the No. 11.

What the pairing in best ball does well is to make those No. 5 through No. 10 tight ends all end up pretty similar, not unlike they already do when weighed individually.

Other than Kelce in the first round, taking a top tight end does make a difference, but not nearly as pronounced as it might seem. Pairing a Top-5 tight end with a second tight end in Round 12 offers some advantage though only twenty to forty points.

But if I own three?

We saw the impact of this on the quarterbacks. You only have one score from a tight end, and the deeper that third tight end is taken, the less likely they can offer more points in a given week than the first two.

No. 5 and No. 12 produce 237 best-ball points. Add in the No. 15 in the next round and it only results in nine more points (246).

The No. 10 and No. 12 total 226 points. Add in the No. 20 and the total shoots up to 233 or just seven more points.

You can get more points from three than just two tight ends, and it makes at least a bit of sense if you waited on that first tight end. But the point boost isn’t much. On the other hand, at least you are in a better shape to get a sleeper tight end.

 Bottom Line

If you draft a Top-5 tight end, then wait for the end of the draft before you bother with someone who is just going to cover a bye week. There’s no real reason to take any of the early backups. Granted, what if your elite tight end is injured? Well, that is a difference that you cannot make up in any case.

You will be at a disadvantage if you start later than those Top-5, but grabbing a second (and even a third) tight end sooner than later can help soften the difference. Tight ends are the lowest-scoring skill position, and if you wait until the sixth round or later, the best you can hope for is that the position isn’t a gaping weekly hole in your scoring. Getting three may not add much, but it could help keep the position from being a problem.

The reality in both traditional and best ball leagues is that you are going to mix in running backs and wide receivers early and often throughout your draft. Those positions typically call for at least two and maybe up to four different players each week. But quarterbacks require just one starter (super flex aside) and that already makes them a unique position because they are the top scorers in almost all fantasy league scoring.

In the “best ball” format, there are no starting decisions. The league software  automatically awards you with the highest-scoring quarterback on your roster for that week.

In traditional league play, owning the highest-scoring quarterback is an advantage, balanced by what you gave up to draft him. In best ball, is it better to draft a top quarterback, or can you make up that difference by owning two of the Top-10 scorers? Where is the bang for your buck? Let’s find out.

Average draft position for best ball quarterbacks

First off, this is when the Top-24 quarterbacks are drafted in the average best ball draft this summer. It’s not any different than traditional leagues.

Round	QB	Order
1
2	1	2
3	3	4
4	5	6
5	7	8
6
7	9	10
8	11	12	13
9	14	15
10	16	17	18
11	19	20
12	21
13	22	23	24

This should be fairly close to what you will see. While anything can happen, it is usually Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen (in either order) as the initial picks that close out the second round. Then, Jalen Hurts and Joe Burrow before the end of the third. Justin Herbert and Lamar Jackson typically fall in the fourth round, followed by Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields in the fifth round.

After the No. 8 quarterback is taken, the order becomes far less reliable and teams begrudgingly take a quarterback before the “starter” quality runs out. Invariably, one team grabs two Top-8 quarterbacks, and another won’t bother with the position until the tenth round and beyond.

Mixing and matching quarterbacks 

One truism in fantasy football trumps all else – “you have to pick players that match or exceed the expectation of their draft spot.” If you drafted Patrick Mahomes in his first season as a starter, he was a near end-of-the-draft pick that paid off huge. But for our purposes, we’ll consider that each draft pick is right, and compare how best ball handled those quarterbacks from last year as they were drafted and then paired with backups.

Since every week matters, I gave each quarterback their average fantasy game score for any missing games. That changed the order a bit from what actually happened, but nothing dramatic. Jalen Hurts missed two games, for example, and became the top scorer from 2022 when those two games were credited with his average. Here are the Top-24 once their missed games were replaced.

Using the weekly scores from those players, we’ll just call them by their rank to represent that draft order.

First, let’s look at the extremes:

QB Drafted	Pts	QB2 Drafted	Pts	Combined Best Ball
No. 1	453	No. 2	445	506
No. 23	252	No. 24	231	294

Two factors jump out. First, it is better to have the Top-2 quarterbacks than the Bottom-2. Shocking. Next, each benefitted about the same when the next  drafted quarterback was added. Let’s start reviewing different groupings to see if there is a sweet spot of total points without spending too high of a pick.

Mixing your QB1 and his backup – how many best ball points?

Below shows the “best ball” points for each combination of your first-drafted quarterback (in blue) and all the possible second quarterbacks you could have drafted last year. Again – this assumes no bad picks and the black cells are when the two quarterbacks had the same bye week. And almost no team drafts a second quarterback prior to the tenth one being drafted (which is usually in the seventh round). So the table only shows adding a second quarterback from the No. 11 drafted and beyond.

For instance, drafting the No. 1 QB and then the No. 12 QB produced 497 total best-ball points. The No. 5 and the No. 12 only totaled 430 points. The No. 7 and the No. 21 combined for 370 points.

Overall QB drafted	QB 11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24
1		497	483	485	480	479	479	484	472	468	480	469	460	456
2		501	485	472	480	476	471	460	466	468	476	465	461	448
3	466	458	489	468		479	457	456	463	447	453	454	454	458
4	457	430	462	440	435	446	398	424	427	424	417	422	420	405
5	433	430	410	416	418	439	412			389	386		393	392
6	413	433	409	419	403	411	402	402	385	387	380	386	380
7	378	411			389	399	385	376	379	368	370		367	355
8	382	406	386		382	374	365	362	380	367	372	357	354	353
9	396	410	410	416	381	396	352	339	342	353	317		327
10	388		391	381	392	381		373	356	370		353	360	354
11		414	394	380	398	386	375	376	368	372	373		355	344
12			413	377	373	385		368	376	374		362	352	353
13					397	390	381	368	359	372	364	357	372	361
14					384	369	347	351	366	362	358	346	353	344
15						372	360	361	364	336	351	349	339	340
16							352	361	368	360	366	358	338	345
17								339	342	353	366	330	327	326
18										338	333	338	319	319

Owning any of the Top-3 quarterbacks will always be a benefit, but there isn’t much hurry to get a second one because the points you give up are negligible.  If you own the No. 3 quarterback, the difference between getting his backup as the No. 13 (eighth round) or waiting until the No.19 (eleventh round) was just about zero. The higher scoring your first quarterback proves, the less your second quarterback matters. Almost every week will rely on that top quarterback, and your backup provides little more than a bye week cover. 

Those earlier rounds are better off raiding wideouts and running backs since you’ll draw up to seven of your weekly scores from those two positions – not just one.

The above shows how the different strategies break out in scoring. There’s been a “zero quarterback” movement for years, but the table shows how that plays out. The longer you wait on that first quarterback, the quicker you must be with your second. Waiting until the ninth round and tenth rounds means drafting perhaps drafting the No. 15 and No. 17 which combined for just 360 total best-ball points last year. That’s giving up at least 100 points or more to those owning top quarterbacks.

But if I own three?

There are reasons to own three quarterbacks, but it’s more about covering your bases should one be lost for the season to injury. It doesn’t add many points to your total because you just get one quarterback score, and the deeper you go in the draft, the less likely that quarterback will top the other two.

Let’s say you get the No. 12 and No. 15 in the eighth and ninth rounds. That’s was 385 points. Using your tenth pick, you reach the No. 17. That boosts your totals to 391 or just six more points. Or be aggressive and use your seventh and eighth picks to net No. 10 and No. 13 for 391 points. Then spending that third pick in a row on the No. 15 quarterbacks adds 28 points for 419.

You do not see that third quarterback much earlier than the fourteenth round and usually it is the fifteenth round or beyond because you are building an entire roster, not just a collection of quarterbacks who can only combine for one weekly score.

Get a third one for insurance. Or hope you land the next 2017 Patrick Mahomes, who shocked from the bottom of the draft. But don’t expect a point benefit from the addition.

Bottom Line

The numbers show that your first quarterback will supply the bulk of your weekly best-ball points for the position, and the difference-makers at the top need little more than a bye-week cover.  There just isn’t the bang for the buck in adding an early second quarterback when you snagged yours by the fifth round.

Spending a second to fourth-round pick on a quarterback may seem painful when solid starting running backs and wide receivers remain on the board. But it does give about a 100-point advantage at the highest-scoring position, and there’s far more movement in the year-to-year rankings for running backs and wideouts. And even combining multiple quarterbacks from deeper in the draft will not produce what one top quarterback can do.