The Cincinnati Bearcats (3-0, 1-0 AAC) tangle with the SMU Mustangs (5-0, 2-0) in a Saturday night (9 p.m. ET) game at Gerald J. Ford Stadium in University Park, Texas. We analyze the Cincinnati-SMU college football betting odds and lines, with picks and predictions.
Cincinnati is ranked No. 10 in the Amway Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports. SMU is ranked No. 16.
Cincinnati at SMU: Betting odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:50 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Cincinnati +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | SMU -139 (bet $139 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Cincinnati +2.5 (-106) | SMU -2.5 (-115)
- Over/Under: 55.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Cincinnati at SMU: Three things to know
- These programs last met on the gridiron Oct. 27, 2018, when SMU defeated Cincinnati 26-20 in overtime. Saturday’s contest marks the fifth all-time meeting between UC and SMU; the Mustangs lead the series 3-1.
- UC has not played a game since downing South Florida 28-7 at home on Oct. 3. The Bearcats had an open date two weeks back and then had a scheduled game against Tulsa nixed last week when an undisclosed number of Cincinnati players tested positive for COVID-19.
- A vaunted Mustangs offense (596 yards per game – second FBS, 40.2 PPG) will be pitted against a Bearcats defense which ranks second nationally in total yards allowed (283.5) and points allowed (8.5). UC will be looking to curtail the exploits of SMU QB Shane Buechele, who has thrown for 1,710 yards and 12 touchdowns while completing 67.6% of his passes this season.
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Cincinnati at SMU: Odds, prediction, betting lines and picks
Prediction
Cincinnati 28, SMU 24
Money line (ML)
SMU’s five wins include three by a one-possession margin. Two games back, the Mustangs squeaked by then-ranked Memphis 30-27 at home. SMU was a plus-2 in in turnovers and still managed to let a mid-game lead slip away by allowing three long TD drives.
SMU allowed 5.4 rushing yards per carry in that game and has been gashed for 400 yards in the run game over its last two contests. Cincinnati is a likable straight-up play here: BACK THE BEARCATS (+115).
Against the spread (ATS)
PASS on the two-and-a-hook. The value is solid on the money line.
Over/Under (O/U)
In a game where the strength-on-strength SMU passing vs. UC pass defense is critical, the Mustangs will be without top WR Reggie Roberson, who is out with a season-ending knee injury.
Top comps in the Cincinnati record include big, close games against other league foes since last October, and the Under has come up as a resounding trend. Overall, the Under has gone 8-1 in UC’s last nine games, and that’s the call here. BACK THE UNDER (55.5), but on a line that has bounced down from 57 1/2, consider awaiting a rebound to a higher total.
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